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      Socioeconomic and health impacts of fall armyworm in Ethiopia

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          Abstract

          Since 2016, fall armyworm (FAW) has threatened sub-Saharan ‘Africa’s fragile food systems and economic performance. Yet, there is limited evidence on this transboundary pest’s economic and food security impacts in the region. Additionally, the health and environmental consequences of the insecticides being used to control FAW have not been studied. This paper presents evidence on the impacts of FAW on maize production, food security, and human and environmental health. We use a combination of an agroecology-based community survey and nationally representative data from an agricultural household survey to achieve our objectives. The results indicate that the pest causes an average annual loss of 36% in maize production, reducing 0.67 million tonnes of maize (0.225 million tonnes per year) between 2017 and 2019. The total economic loss is US$ 200 million, or 0.08% of the gross domestic product. The lost production could have met the per capita maize consumption of 4 million people. We also find that insecticides to control FAW have more significant toxic effects on the environment than on humans. This paper highlights governments and development partners need to invest in sustainable FAW control strategies to reduce maize production loss, improve food security, and protect human and environmental health.

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          Fall Armyworm: Impacts and Implications for Africa

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            Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

            Fall armyworm, Spodopterafrugiperda , is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20–50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe impact on livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). We also investigated the strength of trade and transportation pathways that could carry fall armyworm beyond Africa. Up till now, fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate conditions that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.
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              Agro-ecological options for fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda JE Smith) management: Providing low-cost, smallholder friendly solutions to an invasive pest

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Data curationRole: ResourcesRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Project administrationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                4 November 2021
                2021
                : 16
                : 11
                : e0257736
                Affiliations
                [1 ] International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology ( icipe, ), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
                [2 ] International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology ( icipe, ), Nairobi, Kenya
                [3 ] International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya
                CMAVE, USDA-ARS, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4116-7945
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6754-2432
                Article
                PONE-D-21-14461
                10.1371/journal.pone.0257736
                8568106
                34735485
                742908ed-3fc0-4d13-854f-6ea2ec7d79c9
                © 2021 Abro et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 3 May 2021
                : 8 September 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 8, Pages: 19
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007263, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University;
                Award ID: Grant No. AID-OAA-L-15-00001
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
                Award ID: Grant No. RAF-3058 KEN-18/0005
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780, European Commission;
                Award ID: Grant No. DCI-FOOD/2018/402-634
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete (SE)
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Direktion für Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit (CH)
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (DE)
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: Federal Democratic Republic the Kenyan Government
                Award Recipient :
                This study was supported by the USAID Feed the Future IPM Innovation Lab, Virginia Tech (Grant No. AID-OAA-L-15-00001); the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD, Grant No. RAF-3058 KEN-18/0005); and the European Commission (Grant No. DCI-FOOD/2018/402-634). We also acknowledge the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) core support provided by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), UK; the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida); the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC); Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ); the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; and the Kenyan Government. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Animal Studies
                Experimental Organism Systems
                Model Organisms
                Maize
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Model Organisms
                Maize
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Eukaryota
                Plants
                Grasses
                Maize
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Animal Studies
                Experimental Organism Systems
                Plant and Algal Models
                Maize
                People and Places
                Population Groupings
                Professions
                Agricultural Workers
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Agriculture
                Agrochemicals
                Insecticides
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Agriculture
                Pest Control
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Health Care
                Environmental Health
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Public and Occupational Health
                Environmental Health
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Africa
                Ethiopia
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Nutrition
                Diet
                Food
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Nutrition
                Diet
                Food
                Social Sciences
                Political Science
                National Security
                Custom metadata
                The community survey data are available in the Supporting information of this submission. The household survey are available upon request of the Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia ( https://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/); The names of the datasets are Agriculture Sample Survey 2017/2018 (2010 E.C.), Agriculture Sample Survey 2018/2019 (2011 E.C.), and Agriculture Sample Survey 2019/2020 (2012 E.C.).

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