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      Visceral leishmaniasis control actions: epidemiological indicators for its effectiveness evaluation in a Brazilian urban area Translated title: Acciones de control de la leishmaniosis visceral: indicadores epidemiológicos de la evaluación de efectividad en un área urbana brasileña Translated title: Ações de controle da leishmaniose visceral: indicadores epidemiológicos da avaliação de efetividade em uma área urbana brasileira

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          Abstract: This research applies indicators concerning control of the visceral leishmaniasis canine reservoir in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Data were obtained from the Zoonoses Control Information System (SCZOO) and the Brazilian Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN) database. First we analyzed (i) existing associations between canine epidemiological indicators, where the dependent variable was the canine seroprevalence A (2007 to 2013), and the independent variables were, as follows: canine seroprevalence B (2006 to 2012); percentage of positive dogs by ELISA test reagents that were not euthanized; the relationship between the human and canine population; canine population testing coverage by census surveys; and the years of study (2006 to 2013); (ii) then, we examined the association between human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) cases between 2007 to 2013 and the mentioned variables related to dogs and years. Statistical analysis was done by a generalized linear model (GLM). One unit increases in canine seroprevalence B and canine seroprevalence A were associated to 13% and 12% increases in HVL rates, respectively. The increase in one human/dog ratio unit was associated with a 13% decrease in HVL rates. Canine seroprevalence, human/dog ratio and non-euthanasia of ELISA-reactive dogs in the environment were adequate indicators for analyzing the canine enzootic transmission and the occurrence of HVL cases.

          Translated abstract

          Resumen: El estudio aplica indicadores referentes al control del reservorio canino de la leishmaniosis visceral en la ciudad de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil. Los datos fueron obtenidos del Sistema de Control de Zoonosis (SCZOO) y del Sistema Brasileño de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación (SINAN). Comenzamos con el análisis de las asociaciones existentes entre indicadores epidemiológicos caninos, donde la variable dependiente fue la seroprevalencia canina-A (de 2007 a 2013) y la variable independiente fue la seroprevalencia canina-B (de 2006 a 2012); el porcentaje de perros positivos, de acuerdo con el test ELISA, y que no fueron sacrificados; la relación entre las poblaciones humana y canina; la cobertura del test de la población canina, de acuerdo con encuestas censales y los años de estudio (de 2006 a 2013). En seguida, examinamos la asociación entre casos de leishmaniosis visceral humana (LVH) entre 2007 y 2013 y las variables citadas, relacionadas con los perros y los años. El análisis estadístico usó un modelo lineal generalizado (MLG). Los aumentos de una unidad en la seroprevalencia canina-B y seroprevalencia canina-A estuvieron asociados a aumentos de 13% y 12% en las tasas de LVH, respectivamente. Un aumento de una unidad en la razón humano/perro estuvo asociado a una disminución de un 13% en las tasas de LVH. La seroprevalencia canina, la relación humano/perro y la no-eutanasia de perros ELISA-reactivos fueron indicadores adecuados para analizar la transmisión enzoótica canina y la ocurrencia de casos de LVH.

          Translated abstract

          Resumo: O estudo aplica indicadores referentes ao controle do reservatório canino da leishmaniose visceral na cidade de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Controle de Zoonoses (SCZOO) e do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Começamos com a análise das associações existentes entre indicadores epidemiológicos caninos, onde a variável dependente foi a soroprevalência canina-A (de 2007 a 2013) e a variável independente foi a soroprevalência canina-B (de 2006 a 2012); o percentual de cães positivos de acordo com o teste ELISA e que não foram sacrificados; a relação entre as populações humana e canina; a cobertura da testagem da população canina de acordo com inquéritos censitários e os anos de estudo (de 2006 a 2013). Em seguida, examinamos a associação entre casos de leishmaniose visceral humana (LVH) entre 2007 e 2013 e as variáveis citadas relacionadas aos cães e aos anos. A análise estatística usou um modelo linear generalizado (MLG). Os aumentos de uma unidade na soroprevalência canina-B e soroprevalência canina-A estiveram associados a aumentos de 13% e 12% nas taxas de LVH, respectivamente. Um aumento de uma unidade na razão humano/cão esteve associado a uma diminuição de 13% nas taxas de LVH. A soroprevalência canina, a relação humano/cão e a não-eutanásia de cães ELISA-reativos foram indicadores adequados para analisar a transmissão enzoótica canina e a ocorrência de casos de LVH.

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          Prevalence and Factors Associated with Leishmania infantum Infection of Dogs from an Urban Area of Brazil as Identified by Molecular Methods

          Introduction Human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) constitutes a public health problem that affects millions of people throughout the world [1]. Over the past decade, there has been an average of 3379 cases of HVL per year in Brazil, with an incidence of 1.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants [2]. During this period, however, an increase in the prevalence of the disease has been observed in several urban areas, and this phenomenon may be attributed to high population density, increased migration, environmental changes, inadequate living conditions and vector adaptation [1], [3]. In South America and Europe, the causative agent of HVL is Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum, a protozoan parasite transmitted by sand flies of the Phlebotominae family, which are widely distributed in both wild and domestic surroundings [4]. Dogs are the main urban reservoirs and represent the major source of contagion for the vector by virtue of their high prevalence of infection and intense cutaneous parasitism [5]. Furthermore, it has been estimated that more than 50% of seropositive dogs are asymptomatic [6] and may remain free of clinical symptoms for several years or even throughout life [7]. The prevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in endemic areas of Brazil ranges between 5.9 and 29.8% [8]–[13], although the serological methods employed in the detection of CVL exhibit low sensitivities and may underestimate the true value [14]–[15]. The Brazilian Ministry of Health, through the Control Program of Visceral Leishmaniasis (CPVL), has instituted specific measures to control the dissemination of the disease, and these include early diagnosis and treatment of human cases, identification and elimination of seropositive infected dogs, control of insect vectors and health education [2]. To date, however, the actions of CPVL have had little impact, and this negative outcome has been ascribed to delays in detecting and eliminating infected dogs, the tendency to replace infected dogs by susceptible puppies, and the low sensitivity of the available serological methods [16]–[18]. Although serological techniques lack the sensitivity required to detect Leishmania in the initial stages of infection, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based assays can disclose the presence of protozoan DNA very early on, even before seroconversion [19]–[20]. Epidemiological studies employing modern molecular techniques have revealed that the prevalence of CVL in endemic areas in Europe is far greater than serological methods had previously suggested [15], [21]–[22]. According to De Andrade et al. [14], it is possible that as many as 62% of Brazilian dogs showing negative serological and parasitological tests for L. infantum would be classified as CVL-positive according to PCR and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) assays. A cohort study conducted by Oliva et al. [20] showed that most of the animals had PCR-positive results months before seroconversion. In addition, experimentally infected dogs have been found to be positive by conjunctival PCR by 45 days of infection [23]. To understand the expansion and urbanization of VL, it is necessary to identify the risk factors associated with human and/or canine infection. A number of publications have considered the factors influencing HVL [24]–[26], but the potential risk factors of the canine disease have received far less attention. Information concerning animal susceptibility and its association with race, size, type of hair and age is available [8], [27]–[28]. However, factors relating to the domiciliary and peridomiciliary environment, the socioeconomic status of the owner, the type of care provided for the animal, and specific animal behavior must be investigated to explain the importance of dogs in the maintenance of CVL in urban areas. In view of the aforementioned problems an investigation was undertaken to look into the prevalence of L. infantum infection using PCR followed by RFLP and serological methods (ELISA). The factors associated with L. infantum infection among seronegative (determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay - ELISA) and PCR-RFLP–positive dogs were also assessed. The L. infantum infection criterion proposed herein prioritizes CVL early onset. This study was conducted in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the State of Minas Gerais, located in Southeastern Brazil, which is considered an area of active transmission [29]. Methods Ethical statement The study was approved by the Committees of Ethics in Animal Experimentation of the Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (protocol no. 083/2007), of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (protocol no. 020/2007), and of the City Council of Belo Horizonte (protocol no. 001/2008). All procedures in this study were according to the guidelines set by the Brazilian Animal Experimental Collage (COBEA), Federal Law number 11794. Owners of the dogs participating in the project were informed of the research objectives and were required to sign the Informed Consent Form before sample and data collection. Study design The cross-sectional study was conducted in 2008 in the northwest sanitary district of Belo Horizonte, which covers an area of 36.874 km2 (Fig. 1). According to the census by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística in 2007, the human population of this area is 360,000. The canine population comprised 20,883 animals, according to the Zoonosis Control Management of the northwest sanitary district. At the time of the study, the prevalences of CVL in Belo Horizonte and its northwest sanitary district were 7.6 and 7.8%, respectively [30]. With an expected prevalence of CVL in the study area of between 5 and 10%, the 95% confidence interval, and an estimated precision of 1.5%, the appropriate sample size for the study was calculated to be approximately 1500 animals. Because of the high prevalence of seropositive dogs and the presence of human cases, the activities of the CPVL, including canine surveys (diagnosis and culling seropositive dogs), have been carried out in the study area annually. The present field work was done in close collaboration with the Municipality Health Service, and the data were collected during the canine survey census, conducted by the health agents, as part of CVLP's routine. The studied area was selected within the northwest sanitary district by convenience and was chosen because at that moment (2008) a canine survey was beginning in this area. The households visited by the CVLP in an area that comprised of 37 census tracts (according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) [31] were included in the present study. A total of 918 households were included in this study, and all dogs within selected houses were sampled. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001291.g001 Figure 1 Municipality of Belo Horizonte, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, subdivided into sanitary areas. Collection of data A trained research team interviewed the owners of the study animals using a previously tested, structured questionnaire that sought information regarding the following groups of variables: (i) knowledge about the disease (i.e., form of transmission and clinical signs of HVL); (ii) knowledge about the vector (characteristics and presence in the domicile and peridomicile); (iii) knowledge about the host (epidemiological importance of the host, clinical signs of leishmaniasis, and care of the dog); (iv) socioeconomic characteristics of the owner (per capita/family income, and schooling); (v) characteristics of the domicile, annexes and surroundings [i.e., structure of roof, floor and walls; number of rooms, including bedrooms; number of residents; presence of trees (particularly banana trees); rubble; exposed garbage; dead leaves; and vegetable garden]; (vi) method of garbage disposal (collected, burnt or buried); and (vii) presence of other domestic animals (birds, cats and cattle). The knowledge about the disease was validated according to self-reporting of the mainly symptoms of LVC and LVH. Vector recognition was acknowledged by self-reporting and validated by the showing of different diptera species samples (Lutzomyia longipalpis and Aedes aegypti) to the participants. The following information on the dogs was collected on an appropriate form: age, sex, size, hair type, breed, behavior (habits related to the place where the dog sleeps spends most of its time, i.e. in the street, in the residence, in the backyard), dog care, clinical examinations, past history of vaccination and serological exams previous to leishmaniasis. Some characteristics were defined by the health agents, such as breed, dog size, hair type and clinical evaluation. These characteristics are routinely obtained and registered in a standardized form used by CPVL in the canine survey. The hair type was defined according to the breed, i.e., collie was classified as long-furred hair, Doberman as short-furred. Dog size also was defined according to the breed, i.e., pinscher was categorized as small size, poodle as medium size and German shepherd as large size. According to the absence/presence of clinical infection signs, the dogs were categorized as asymptomatic, with no signs suggestive of disease, and symptomatic, with characteristic clinical signs of visceral leishmaniasis, such as opaque bristles, severe loss of weight, onychogryphosis, cutaneous lesions, apathy and keratoconjunctivitis. Collection of blood samples A sample of peripheral blood (5 mL) was collected by puncture of the brachiocephalic vein and an aliquot transferred to a glass vial containing sufficient anticoagulant (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid; EDTA) to give a final concentration of 1 mg/mL. The blood sample was centrifuged (1500–1800×g; 20 min), the buffy coat containing the leukocytes removed, resuspended in 10 mM Tris-HCl buffer (supplemented with 1 mM EDTA) in the proportion of 1∶1, and stored at −80°C until required for PCR-RFLP. The remaining portion of the blood sample was transferred to two separate filter papers for subsequent analysis by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay ELISA was performed in parallel in the Laboratory of Immunopathology of Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (LIMP) and the Laboratory of Zoonosis of the Prefeitura Municipal de Belo Horizonte (LZOON). The presence of IgG against Leishmania in blood samples was determined using an “in-house” ELISA procedure performed at the LIMP. Soluble Leishmania chagasi (MHOM/BR/1070/BH46) antigen (SLA) was prepared by the method of Reis et al. [32] from promastigotes harvested from stationary-phase liver infusion tryptose cultures. The concentration of protein in the SLA solution was determined as previously described [33] and adjusted to 1000 µg/mL. Diluted SLA was divided into small portions and stored at −70°C until required for assay. In the ELISA procedure, 96-well MaxiSorp™ microplates (Nalge Nunc Int., Rochester, NY, USA) were coated with SLA (2 µg/well) and maintained overnight at 4–8°C. Wells were then washed, and eluates from blood dried on filter paper were added at 1∶80 dilution. To perform the reaction, filter paper was thawed and 5-µm-diameter spots eluted in casein-PBS for testing by ELISA. The wells were washed again prior to the addition of peroxidase-conjugated sheep anti-dog IgG (anti-heavy chain specific; Bethyl Laboratories Inc., Montgomery, TX, USA). After further washes, chromogenic substrate (O-phenylenediamine; Sigma–Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA) was added, and the absorbance was read on an automatic EL 800G ELISA microplate reader (Bio Tek Instruments, Winooski, VT, USA) at 492 nm. The anti-IgG conjugate concentration employed (1∶16,000 dilution) was determined by a block titration method employing positive and negative standard sera. The cut-off value was established as the mean absorbance value +2 SD from 20 eluates from blood of uninfected dogs dried on filter paper. Duplicate filter papers were submitted to ELISA at LZOON using a kit developed by Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, EIE – Ensaio Imunoenzimático para diagnostico da leishmaniose visceral canina Bio-Manguinhos (Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil) and applied according to the supplier's instructions. Molecular methods (PCR-RFLP) DNA was extracted from buffy coat fractions using Wizard™ Genomic DNA purification kits (Promega, Madison, WI, USA) according to the manufacturer's instructions. The primers used to amplify the conserved region of the Leishmania kDNA minicircle were as follows: forward: 5′-GGG (G/T)AG GGG CGT TCT (G/C)CG AA-3′; reverse: 5′-(G/C)(G/C)(G/C) (A/T)CT AT(A/T) TTA CAC CAA CCC C-3′ [34]. The reaction mixture consisted of 1× buffer [10 mM Tris-HCl, 50 mM KCl (pH 8.8)], 1.5 mM MgCl2, 2.0 µM dNTP, 1.0 pmol of each primer, 0.76 U of Taq polymerase (Sinapse, São Paulo, SP, Brazil), 2.5 µL DNA and Milli Q water to a final volume of 12.5 µL/well (MicroAmp® Fast Optical 96-Wells, Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). PCR reactions were performed in a 96-well Verit Thermal Cycler (Applied Biosystems) using the following program: initial denaturation at 94°C for 1 min, followed by 40 cycles of 30 s at 93°C, 1 min at 64°C and 1 min at 72°C, with a final extension at 72°C for 7 min. DNA from L. chagasi (strain MHOM/BR/1972/BH46), obtained from the DNA reference library at LIMP, was used as positive control, while DNA from non-infected dogs, raised in the experimental kennels at UFOP, was used as negative control. PCR amplicons (5 µL) were digested for 3 h at 37°C in 1 U of Hae III (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA) in 1× buffer [10 mM Tris-HCl, 10 mM MgCl2 (pH 7.5)] and Milli Q water to a final volume of 15.0 µL/well (MicroAmp® Fast Optical 96-Well, Applied Biosystems) [35]. Restriction fragments, together with a 25 bp DNA ladder (Invitrogen), were electrophoresed in 10% polyacrylamide gels at 40 mA in 89 mM Tris base (pH 8.0), 89 mM boric acid and 2 mM EDTA. Bands were detected by silver staining, and the patterns were compared with those obtained using DNA from L. (L.) amazonensis (MHOM/BR/1973/M2269), L. (Viannia) braziliensis (MHOM/BR/1975/M2903) and L. (L.) chagasi (MHOM/BR/1972/BH46) from the DNA reference library at LIMP. Samples with very faint bands in PCR were extracted again and assayed by PCR to obtain better bands in the RFLP profile. All samples that did not show similar profiles to L. infantum DNA were excluded from the present study. Animal groups Dogs were classified as seronegative if ELISA results were negative in both laboratories (LIMP and LZOON). The seronegative animals were categorized as (i) infected group: animals presenting positive PCR-RFLP for L. infantum; and (ii) non-infected group; animals presenting negative PCR-RFLP for L. infantum. These two groups were analyzed to identify factors associated with infection. Statistical analysis Databases were generated using EpiData version 3.2 (EpiData Association, Odense, Denmark) by double entry of the results, and they were subsequently corrected, compared and analyzed using STATA version 11.0 software (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA). To investigate the factors potentially associated with L. infantum infection, the infected and non-infected groups of animals were compared. A mixed logistic regression model [36] was employed to evaluate the association between the independent and dependent variables. This model was chosen on the basis that the sampling process included all dogs within a studied household, and it incorporated the underlying assumption that observations obtained from dogs in the same household were mutually dependent while observations from dogs in different households were independent. The xtmlogit function provide by Stata was used to perform the analysis and the household was included as a random effect. Univariate analysis using the mixed logistic regression model was conducted for all variables collected, and those that attained a p value 3 minimum salary), type of floor in the residence (other materials/tiles or wood), type of neighborhood (houses/houses with garden/lands), origin of dog (another district/present neighborhood), dog stays predominantly in the backyard (yes/no), where the dog sleeps (indoors/outdoors), and lack of previous CVL serological examination (no/yes). 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001291.t001 Table 1 Distribution of seronegative dogs (n = 1213) according to the characteristics of the animals, Brazil 2008. Variable PCR-RFLP Univariate analysisOdds Ratio(95% CI) ρ values Positiven (%) Negativen (%) Hair Short 173 (58.5) 491 (53.5) Long 123 (41.5) 426 (46.5) 1.2 (0.9–1.7) 0.17 Veterinary check ups Yes 151 (55.3) 527 (59.4) No 122 (44.7) 360 (40.6) 0.8 (0.6–1.1) 0.25 Symptomatic Yes 4 (1.4) 25 (2.7) No 292 (98.6) 890 (97.3) 0.4 (0.1–1.5) 0.20 Origin of the animal District of residence 154 (56.2) 459 (51.6) Other district 120 (43.8) 431 (48.4) 0.8 (0.6–1.1) 0.16 Dog staying predominantly in the backyard No 36 (13.1) 153 (17.2) Yes 238 (86.9) 737 (82.8) 1.4 (0.9–2.3) 0.10 Sleeping place Inside the house 51 (18.6) 208 (23.4) In the garden 223 (81.4) 682 (76.6) 1.4 (1.0–2.1) 0.08 CVL sorological examination previously Yes 183 (68.8) 662 (76.1) No 83 (31.2) 208 (23.9) 1.5 (1.1–2.2) 0.02 Age ≤24 months 108 (36.5) 292 (31.8) >24 and ≤84 months 116 (39.2) 411 (44.8) 0.7 (0.5–1.0) 0.08 >84 months 72 (24.3) 214 (23.3) 0.9 (0.6–1.3) 0.59 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001291.t002 Table 2 Distribution of owners (n = 918) of seronegative dogs according to the socioeconomic and environmental conditions and understanding of the disease, Brazil 2008. Variable PCR-RFLP Univariate analysisOdds Ratio (95%CI) ρ values Positive (%) Negative (%) Socioeconomic conditions Family income  >3 minimum wages* 72 (54.1) 281 (65.8)  1 to 3 minimum wages 24 (18.1) 88 (20.6) 0.9 (0.6–1.5) 0.78   3 minimum wages* 2.4 (1.5–3.9) 2.3 (1.4–3.8) Knowledge of the owner regarding the vectoryes versus no 1.4 (0.9–2.2) 1.9 (1.1–3.4) Dog staying predominantly in the backyardyes versus no 1.4 (0.9–2.3) 2.2 (1.1–4.1) CVL serological examination previouslyno versus yes 1.5 (1.1–2.2) 1.5 (1.1–2.3) *Brazilian minimum wages (Brazilian monthly minimum wage = U$262). Discussion The results in the present investigation show that the prevalence of L. infantum infection in dogs as determined by PCR-RFLP (24.7%) is higher than that detected by serology (15.9%). Such divergent values are highly significant because they demonstrate that the magnitude of CVL in this study area, which is under constant CPVL intervention, has been underestimated. Factors associated with early L. infantum infection (PCR-RFLP+) were the socioeconomic conditions of the owner, the behavior of the dog, knowledge of the owner regarding the vector and the care the dogs had received. These results are relevant because they allow better understanding of the transmission of VL in a large city such as Belo Horizonte where leishmaniasis is expanding [29], [38]. Moreover, the diagnosis of canine infection by L. infantum was achieved through the application of PCR-RFLP, which indicated the early onset of CVL. Additionally, as the data originated directly from dog owners and their respective animals, it was possible to perform a detailed analysis of a range of information and to determine the factors associated with CVL. Studies in European endemic areas have also demonstrated an elevated prevalence of infection (typically 60–80%) by PCR in comparison with that indicated by serology (generally<30%) [15], [39]. Species identification was essential, especially because Belo Horizonte is an area of the simultaneous occurrence of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis and the dog can be host for both parasites [40]. Among the examined samples, only three showed molecular bands similar to L. braziliensis, and they were not included in the present study. Approximately a quarter of seronegative dogs were infected by L. infantum according to PCR-RFLP. These false-negative animals were likely within an “immunological window” that occurs prior to seroconversion, during which period B lymphocytes do not secrete polyclonal antibodies, and consequently, serological methods are less sensitive at this stage of the infection [41]. It is possible that false-negative dogs remain in the community as undisclosed reservoirs and, thus, interfere with the effectiveness of control measures. Indeed, despite recent intense efforts to eliminate seropositive dogs, no reduction in the incidence of HVL or CVL has been observed in urban areas [42]. Little is known if seronegative/PCR-positive dogs are immunologically resistant to Leishmania [43] or if they will develop the disease. However, it is possible to state that such animals have had previous contact with the parasite. Such information is relevant because canine positivity for Leishmania is included among the indicators for the prioritization of target control areas by the Ministry of Health. Although molecular biology methods are more promising in identifying infection, their use in the field requires further standardization and optimization. HVL is favored by precarious socioeconomic and housing conditions, migratory movements and the presence of vector and reservoir in the domestic environment [24]–[26], [44]. However, little is known about the risk factors that facilitate Leishmania infection in the main reservoir of the disease, namely, the domestic dog. To obtain a better understanding of these factors, comparisons were made between non-infected (seronegative/PCR-RFLP negative) animals and those infected (seronegative and PCR-RFLP positive). The decision to use PCR-RFLP–positive and seronegative animals was due to the detection of L. infantum in the initial stage of infection before seroconversion [19]–[20]. Regarding socioeconomic conditions of the owner, animals belonging to families with incomes of less than twice the minimum salary were twice as likely to be infected in comparison with dogs of higher-income families (three minimum salaries). In this context, family income is a proxy variable of socioeconomic status and is probably associated with the structure of the most vulnerable domiciles. Indeed, Oliveira et al. [26] demonstrated an association between HVL and family income following a study in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte. These data are also consistent with literature confirming that VL is more frequent in areas of precarious socioeconomic status [45]. In general, dog owners showed little knowledge of phlebotomine sand flies. Interestingly, however, dogs whose owners knew about the vector were twofold more likely to acquire the infection than those whose owners were not familiar with the insect. This variable can be understood as an indirect measure of exposure to phlebotomines and shows the importance of using proxy. A similar observation has been reported by Moreno et al. [44], who noted that in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, the likelihood of being infected by Leishmania is six times greater for people who have seen the vector than for those who have not. A high density of Lu. longipalpis was observed in the present study area [38], so it is not surprising that the most respondents had noted the presence of the vector in their residences and neighborhood. Dogs that usually lived in the backyard were twice as likely to acquire the infection as those that remained inside the house. According to Galvez et al. [46], living outdoors is significantly associated with serological positivity for the parasite among canines. In the recent survey performed in Granada, Spain, dogs that slept outdoors were at greater risk than those sleeping indoors because of vector density [47]. On the other hand, Cabrera et al. [48] reported that the risk of infection by CVL is similar for dogs that live within the perimeter of a residence and those that wander the streets or woods. To reduce the risk of CVL, some preventive measures may be adopted, including the maintenance of dogs in closed kennels during periods of intense vector activity, the reduction of microenvironmental factors that favor the development of the vector in the residence, and the use insecticide-impregnated collars [22], [49]. However, the implementation of such measures depends not only on the degree of awareness of the dog owner about the disease but, mainly, on socioeconomic issues, because the most affected population could not afford to leave their dogs in kennels or buy impregnated collars. Only 35.5% of owners knew of the important role of dogs in the transmission of Leishmania, and 45.5% had knowledge of the symptoms of CVL, although 22.8% reported previous ownership of a dog that had contracted CVL. Animals serologically tested by the CPVL previously were less likely to be infected. This finding indicates that seropositive dogs have been removed regularly by the control measures and that dogs that remain seronegative in successive tests are more likely to be CVL-free. Unfortunately, however, the replacement of dogs within the study area is frequent, and these animals would be more susceptible to infection by L. infantum [50]. The mean age of infected dogs was 49.8 (SD 41.3) months, whereas the mean age of non-infected dogs was 54.5 (SD 39.0) months. One possible explanation for this result is that the CPVL had removed seropositive dogs during the canine survey. Therefore, PCR was detecting L. infantum infection early, in younger dogs. Although the univariate analysis was significant, dog age was not associated with L. infantum infection. Galvez et al.[46] examined the age at which seroprevalence showed a bimodal distribution, with one peak appearing in the young dogs (1–2 years) and a second, more evident, peak among the older dogs (7–8 years). On the other hand, França-Silva et al. [8] observed that the prevalence of infection was not correlated with dog age. The emergence of leishmaniasis in Belo Horizonte dates from the late 1980s, when the disease spread from areas marked by poor socioeconomic conditions [51]. At the present time, the disease is increasing, and VL has been detected in all regions of the city [38]. Indeed, the urbanization of VL is a current reality in many Brazilian cities. We tried to identify domiciles that were most vulnerable to the presence of the vector and occurrence of infection. However, no variable related to households was maintained in the final model. In a study conducted in Northeastern Brazil, the risk of HVL was greater in residences that lacked sewage services and garbage collection [25]. In the present study, no influence of such factors on the prevalence of CVL was found, as 99% of domiciles were served by a main sewage connection and nearly all received garbage collection. Even though our sampling procedure was not probabilistic, the studied households were sampled from a census survey, and the investigated blocks are representative of the northwest sanitary district. This study was not designed to evaluate a representative sample of Belo Horizonte but to assess the prevalence of infection by PCR-RFLP in seronegative dogs and identify risk factors for infection in these animals. However, the northwest sanitary district is representative of the city, with buildings, commerce, residences and green areas. Moreover, the main limitation of a cross-sectional study in identifying risk factors is that it does not permit causal inferences because time factors were not evaluated. Although it is not easy to attribute the associated factors with new measures that can be adopted by CPVL, it is necessary to better investigate the factors associated with VL expansion in urban areas. Improved understanding of urbanization processes in large cites such Belo Horizonte can help the CPVL to adopt measures that are more effective at controlling the spread of the disease. It is important to emphasize that the control of HVL depends on the management of CVL because dogs are the main urban reservoir of Leishmania and represent the main source of phlebotomine infection. The Control Program in Brazil used ELISA for screening and IFAT as a confirmatory test to identify seropositive dogs which are them euthanized. Due to the low level of humoral immune response, some of the infected dogs by L. infantum could not be detected. Therefore, using only seronegative dogs, this paper focuses on those animals that are positive by PCR and are not identified by the control program. Considering that the currently available serologic methods lack sufficient sensitivity and/or specificity to accurately identify all infected dogs, the employment of molecular diagnosis to detect the CVL infection before antibody production could be an efficient alternative. This study showed for the first time the identification of factors associated with early stage of CVL in animals seronegative with PCR-positive for L. infantum and therefore could contribute to better understanding of the involvement of this reservoir in urban-VL epidemiology. Additionally, for better investigation of the factors associated with VL expansion in urban areas further studies are required using a cohort study approach.
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            Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: rationale and concerns related to reservoir control

            The control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis is a challenge, particularly in Brazil, where the disease has been gradually spreading across the country over the past 30 years. Strategies employed for decreasing the transmission risk are based on the control of vector populations and reservoirs; since humans are considered unnecessary for the maintenance of transmission. Among the adopted strategies in Brazil, the sacrifice of infected dogs is commonly performed and has been the most controversial measure. In the present study, we provide the rationale for the implementation of different control strategies targeted at reservoir populations and highlight the limitations and concerns associated with each of these strategies.
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              Relative Risk of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Spatial Analysis in Urban Area

              Introduction Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease highly influenced by social and environmental factors. The majority (>90%) of cases is concentrated in six countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, India, Nepal and Sudan [1]. In Brazil, the VL is caused by Leishmania infantum, belonging to the Leishmania donovani complex that is mainly transmitted by the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis. Dogs are considered to be the principal parasite reservoir, playing an important role in the transmission cycle in urban areas. The VL urbanization has been documented since the 1980s [2]–[8]. This trend represents a challenge for the control of the disease in urban areas [6]–[7], [9]. The average incidence rate of VL in Brazil was 1.9/100,000 inhabitants between 1994 and 2009 [10]. During the last decades, an increasing number of clinical VL cases have been reported for large Brazilian cities, including Belo Horizonte. In 1994, the first human VL cases occurred in BH (n = 29), with incidence rate of 1.4 cases/100,000 inhabitants and case fatality rate of 20.7%. From 1994 to 2009, the highest incidence rate was 7.2/100,000 (in 2008), the case fatality rate 23.6% (in 2009) and the proportion of infected dogs was 9.9% (in 2006) [11]. The presence of the vector and of the canine reservoir has been described throughout Belo Horizonte with an unequal geographic distribution [11]–[15], which is likely due to the intra-urban differences present in large cities. In Belo Horizonte, the Health Vulnerability Index incorporates intra-urban differences represented by indicators of sanitation, housing, income, education, and health [16]. The Health Vulnerability Index is useful in the identification of areas with unfavorable socioeconomic conditions, which are priorities for interventions and the allocation of resources for public policies. In Brazil, the Visceral Leishmaniasis Control and Surveillance Program (VLSCP) is based on reducing the morbidity and case-fatality rates through the early diagnosis and treatment of human cases and on decreasing the transmission risk by controlling the population of both domestic reservoirs and the vector [9]. However, in urban areas, the VLSCP has encountered difficulties, including: logistics and a high cost for a chemical control of the vector; insufficient environmental management for vector control; large interval between diagnosis and the elimination of infected dogs; dissatisfaction among the human population with the elimination of infected dogs; insufficient accuracy of the tests to detect infection, thereby allowing asymptomatic dogs to persist as a source of infection for the vector; substitution of culled dogs by a new susceptible canine population; and high canine infection and infectiveness rates [8], [17]–[19]. The spread of the disease in Belo Horizonte has occurred despite systematic interventions since 1994, which reflects the difficulty of control in urban areas. Thus, the identification of areas with a greater disease risk may help to direct and prioritize the actions of the VLSCP. This study aimed to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission, using spatial analysis, in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, during 2007–2009. Methods Ethics statement This study was approved by the research ethics committees of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais-UFMG (No 211/09) and of the Belo Horizonte City Hall (No 075.2008). Given the assumptions of research ethics, we maintained the confidentiality of data during processing. Analyses were performed anonymously; hence the Informed Consent Form was not necessary. Study design This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL, whose spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units of Belo Horizonte. Study area Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais State, has 2,375,151 inhabitants, and a population density of 7.2 inhabitants/km2. It is the sixth most populous city in Brazil according to the census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística-IBGE) [20]. The city is located at 852 meters above sea level, between latitude 19°49′01″S and longitude 43°57′21″W. It has a dry winter and a hot and rainy summer, with an average annual temperature of 21°C, average relative air humidity of 65%, and average annual rainfall of 1,500 mm [21]. In Belo Horizonte, the health services are organized territorially into nine health districts that are subdivided into 146 areas covered by Basic Health Units (Figure 1). These coverage areas are the result of aggregating 2,563 census tracts defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) [20]. The division between these coverage areas considers aggregation and geographical barriers, continuity occupation, transportation facilities and characteristics of homogeneity. It is noteworthy that the divisions are mainly administrative. The population of these areas varies from 2,197 to 45,171 inhabitants with an average of 15,331 inhabitants. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002540.g001 Figure 1 Map of Belo Horizonte (Brazil) with 146 coverage areas of the Basic Health Units. Data Human VL cases were selected with an onset of symptoms between 2007 and 2009 (n = 412), which were available in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. The cases were georeferenced at the household level, which allowed identifying the respective coverage areas in which they were contained. During 2007–2009, the incidence rates were 4.9, 7.2 and 6.6/100,000 inhabitants and the case fatality rates were 8.2, 12.4 and 23.6%, respectively. In Belo Horizonte, the domestic dog population was 301,593 dogs in 2009 (1 dog per 8 inhabitants). The actions of the Visceral Leishmaniasis Control and Surveillance Program related to the dogs are recorded in the Information System on Zoonosis Control. The canine blood samples are screened for antibodies against Leishmania by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and confirmed by an indirect immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT). In the studied period, 470,479 blood samples were tested, of which 7.8% were reactives. Some negative dogs were tested more than once. The data on canine infection were evaluated in two ways: number of infected dogs and number of infected dogs per inhabitants. Among the components of the Health Vulnerability Index, we selected those that have been described in the literature as being associated with the occurrence of VL: indicators of urban services (water supply, sanitary sewage, and the destination of waste) and of the socioeconomic level (income and education). These data, available for the census tracts, were grouped according to the coverage areas by the average weighted by the population or by the number of households, depending on the main relation of the indicator. We used a contour map of Belo Horizonte to calculate the average altitude of each area. The vegetation coverage was characterized by means of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) [22]. The NDVI varied from −1 to +1. In general, the positive and negative values indicate the presence and absence of green vegetation, respectively. To calculate the NDVI, images were obtained by the Thematic Mapper sensor aboard the LANDSAT-5 satellite in July 2008, since this was the intermediate year in the analyzed period, and there were higher-quality images due to the relative absence of cloud cover that month. The images were adjusted to the spatial conformation of the coverage areas, and the minimum, maximum, mean, standard deviation, and median values of the NDVI were calculated. The spatial statistical modeling used does not consider the time variable [23]. Therefore, we studied a short time series to minimize the potential effect of time in the estimation of the incidence rates. The period 2007–2009 was selected due to the availability of georeferenced data on dogs. The analyses were performed using the MapInfo® 8.5 and WinBUGS 1.4 softwares and the geographical information system of Belo Horizonte. Descriptive analysis The descriptive analyses were carried out in two steps. First, thematic maps were used to visualize the spatial distribution of cumulative incidence rates of human VL per 100,000 inhabitants (crude rates) and the ratio of infected dogs per 1,000 inhabitants in 146 coverage areas during 2007 to 2009. Second, scatter plots graphics were generated with the log-relative risk of VL (log-RR-VL) and the studied covariates. This process allowed for the selection of the covariates that were most correlated with the log-RR-VL for further statistical modeling. Spatial statistical modeling for the relative risks of VL Data from neighboring areas were used to estimate the VL incidence rate of a certain area (smoothed rates) [23]. This approach was intended to minimize the instability in the incidence rates calculated for small-areas. Moreover, it produces more reliable estimates and smoother maps, which are easier to view and interpret from an epidemiological point of view [24]–[27]. As a definition for neighboring areas, we used the adjacency: areas which share borders were considered neighbors. The dependent variable was the number of VL cases observed in area i, Oi , i = 1,2,…,N, where N is the number of areas in the map. We assume that Oi follows a Poisson distribution with mean λi. Our aim was to model the relative risk , which is defined as , where Ei is the expected number of VL cases in area i if all VL cases were homogeneously distributed over the entire map. To obtain a generalized linear model, the logarithmic link function was used: . The covariates are incorporated into the model by , where are coefficients to be estimated and bi is a random effect. Then, (1) where is an offset term. To model the random effect bi , we used the convolution conditional autoregressive (CAR) model [23], which was defined by a set of conditional distributions. The random effect bi is decomposed into two components, , such that μi are unstructured i.i.d. N(0,σ2 μ) random effects. The component si is spatially structured and follows an intrinsic conditional autoregressive model as follows: where N is the total number of areas in the map and is the (N-1)-dimensional vector of observations in all N areas but the observation of area i. Let be a N×N neighborhood matrix so that if the areas i and j are neighbors and otherwise. By definition, . We define the matrix so that , where is the number of neighbors of area i. Each area must have at least one neighbor because islands are not allowed here. Therefore, . The parameter is the area i prior variance, and σs 2 is the common variance. Hence, a larger number of neighbors of an area imply a smaller prior variance. It is worth noting that the expected value of si takes into account not only information for area i but also information for its neighbors. In this sense, the approach [23] uses the spatial information in the neighborhood to estimate parameters related to each area of the map. Using a Bayesian approach and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method, a posterior distribution was generated for each coefficient of the model in (1). The average of the sampled values was used as an estimate for the coefficient, and 95% credibility intervals were used as a criterion to determine whether the covariates should remain into the model. As a prior distribution to the intercept and the covariate coefficients, it was adopted a flat distribution and a normal distribution with a zero mean and a variance equal to 1.0×10−5, respectively. For the precision parameters σ2 μ and σ2 s, we adopted a gamma distribution (0.5; 0.0005). The simulations were made using the software WinBugs 1.4. Details pertaining to spatial statistical modeling for the relative risk of VL are available in supporting information. Results Geocoding was possible for 93% of the infected dogs (34,127/36,627) and 93% of the human VL cases (384/412). The remaining cases were excluded due to inconsistencies in the addresses. Among the 28 cases of human VL whose residential address was not geocoded (7%), 11 were homeless and 17 could be allocated to a sanitary district, but not in the geographic units of analysis (146 small-areas). The loss on geocoding can be considered homogeneous in all health districts of Belo Horizonte. This allows us to consider that the lack of geocoding of cases is not associated with the occurrence of VL or other variables. The Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of the number of infected dogs per 1,000 inhabitants (A) and the cumulative incidence rates of the human visceral leishmaniasis cases per 100,000 inhabitants (B). Because of the missing cases, this figure underestimates the number of infected dogs and human VL cases. In Figure 2-A, the higher levels of canine infection are concentrated in five of the nine health districts of the city. In Figure 2-B, the highest cumulative incidence rates of human VL (crude rates) are located in six health districts. These maps show the overlap of human VL cases and infected dogs. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002540.g002 Figure 2 Spatial distribution of the number of infected dogs per 1,000 inhabitants (A) and the cumulative incidence rates of the human visceral leishmaniasis cases per 100,000 inhabitans (B), Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 2007–2009. The categories of both maps were defined using the quartiles. The scatter plots in Figure 3 present the log-RR-VL on the vertical axis and the covariates on the horizontal axis. The points represent each of the 146 coverage areas. We observed a positive linear trend between the log-RR-VL and the canine infection represented by the covariate “number of infected dogs to inhabitants” (Figure 3-A). The graphs for Health Vulnerability Index (Figure 3-B) and its components that displayed a positive linear trend with log-RR-VL are also presented (Figure 3-C to 3-F), as follows: percentage of illiterate people; percentage of householder with fewer than four years of education; percentage of householder with an income fewer than twice the Brazilian minimum wage (US$ 200.00) and average income (inverted) of the householder. Since a smaller income usually results in a higher vulnerability of the population of an area, the inverted average income was used in the analysis to preserve a possible positive relation with the relative risk. All these covariates were selected for further statistical modeling of the log-RR-VL. 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002540.g003 Figure 3 Relation between the log-relative risk of human visceral leishmaniasis (Y axis) and the covariates included in the spatial analysis (X axis), Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 2007–2009. The points represent each of the 146 spatial units of analysis. A) number of infected dogs to inhabitants; B) Health Vulnerability Index; C) percentage of illiterate people; D) percentage of householder 150,000 dogs/year), which was equivalent to more than half the dog population, and to the existence of an information system to record control activities of the canine reservoir. In Iran, an increase in seropositivity in children was associated with an increase in the canine population and the dog/human ratio [32]. However, canine infections were not evaluated, which is the main methodological difference with the present study. In Belo Horizonte, a spatial correlation between human cases and canine infections was suggested [13] in addition to a greater likelihood of human cases due to the presence of animals in the neighboring area [4]. Study conducted in Araçatuba (São Paulo State, southeastern region), showed that a higher concentrations of human cases were detected in areas with a higher prevalence of infected dogs [33]. Ecological association between canine infections and human VL cases were influenced by the worse socioeconomic conditions in a study carried out in Teresina [30]. All these results highlight the need for new control strategies aimed at infected dogs in urban areas. As pointed out in our results, in the multivariate spatial analysis, the altitude did not remain in the final-models. Nevertheless, another study conducted in Belo Horizonte suggested a concentration of infected dogs and human VL cases between 780 and 880 m [14]. In Sudan, the average rainfall and the altitude were the best predictors of VL incidence [34]. In addition, in India, altitude was associated to the risk of VL, and poverty was cited as a determinant of transmission of the disease [35]. Vegetation, represented by the NDVI, was not shown to be associated with the relative risk of VL in Belo Horizonte. Elsewhere, it was identified as an environmental factor predictive of disease risk [30]–[31], [34]–[36]. In Teresina, higher VL incidence rates in areas with worse socioeconomic conditions, high population growth, and abundant vegetation suggested a relation between the occupation of the area and its vegetation coverage, which was represented by the NDVI [30]. It is probable that the differences in levels of urbanization and infrastructure of Teresina and Belo Horizonte have leaded to these different results. In Brazil, VL is a disease requiring mandatory reporting and whose drugs for treatment are provided exclusively by the government and released only after reporting the case to the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. In addition, a three-decades of the occurrence of the disease in Belo Horizonte, the capacity to care for cases through the healthcare network, and the existence of an organized health surveillance system allow for the assumption that there is very little underreporting of cases. However, because of the missing geocoding (7%), the estimates in Figure 2 include an underestimated number of cases. The use of spatial statistical modeling allowed for estimations of incidence rates smoothed by the spatial dependence between neighboring areas. This Bayesian approach minimizes the instability of rates resulting from a low frequency of cases in small-areas, eliminates a large part of the randomness not associated with the risk factors, and overcomes the political-administrative delimitations of the areas [6], [23]–[24], [26]–[27]. Therefore, this approach proved to be useful for the identification of small-areas with a higher risk of VL and exhibited its operational applicability in surveillance and control in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Some limitations of this study should also be highlighted. One limitation is related to the temporality of the Health Vulnerability Index, which uses socioeconomic indicators taken from the demographic census of the year 2000 [20]. The updating of this index depends on the results of the census from 2010, which was no available during this study. The broad distribution of the vector L. longipalpis has been described in Belo Horizonte and, more precisely, in the peridomiciles of the households [12], [14]–[15]. Based on this knowledge, households were considered to be likely infection sites. Therefore, the geocoding of human VL cases in the level of the household can be a limitation of this study because there would be an ideal indicator of the risk of transmission for all situations. In spite of the fact that Belo Horizonte has high coverage of geocoding system, some problems related to the absences or inconsistencies in addresses could be happen at the time of human VL case reporting and during the canine survey (eg. homeless individuals; house number inexistent). Loss in geocoding of human cases and canine infection was around 7% and it can be considered homogeneously distributed over the city. Hence, it is likely that the loss was not associated with geographical locations and suggested absence of selection bias in spatial analysis [37]. Areas of the municipalities neighboring to Belo Horizonte were not included in the Bayesian analysis to estimate incidence rates. This point would be other limitation of our study. It is noteworthy that georeferenced data of VL patients from neighboring counties may not be available due to the lack of the geocoding system. In Belo Horizonte, it is likely that the effectiveness and sustainability of the visceral leishmaniasis control program are influenced by the complexity of the disease in a large territorial area with high human and canine population densities and intra-urban differences. In this context, identifying higher risk areas may help in the surveillance of VL, direct the prioritization of small-areas for specific interventions [30], [38], and contribute to the effectiveness and reduction of operational costs of the Visceral Leishmaniasis Control and Surveillance Program [6], [39]–[40]. Supporting Information Model S1 Spatial statistical modeling: script and results of the models S1. (DOC) Click here for additional data file.
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                Journal
                csp
                Cadernos de Saúde Pública
                Cad. Saúde Pública
                Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil )
                0102-311X
                1678-4464
                2020
                : 36
                : 6
                : e00060219
                Affiliations
                [2] Rio de Janeiro orgnameFundação Oswaldo Cruz orgdiv1Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca Brazil
                [1] Belo Horizonte orgnamePrefeitura de Belo Horizonte orgdiv1Gerência de Controle de Zoonoses Brazil
                Article
                S0102-311X2020000705002 S0102-311X(20)03600605002
                10.1590/0102-311x00060219
                79366fd3-8e6c-4b94-8d61-8a0ab603ef9f

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                : 19 November 2019
                : 26 March 2019
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                Vigilancia Epidemiológica,Visceral Leishmaniasis,Leishmaniose Visceral,Vigilância Epidemiológica,Indicadores de Serviços,Indicadores de Servicios,Epidemiologic Surveillances,Leishmaniasis Visceral,Indicators of Health Services

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