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      Planning complementary conservation of crop wild relative diversity in southern Africa

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          Abstract

          Aim

          To identify priority areas for in situ conservation and collection of germplasm for ex situ backup of crop wild relative (CWR) diversity in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region as part of an action plan for the conservation and use of the region's important CWR diversity.

          Location

          SADC region.

          Methods

          Diversity, gap and climate change analyses at species and ecogeographic diversity levels were undertaken for 113 regional priority CWR taxa.

          Results

          CWR hotspots were identified in Eswatini (former Swaziland), Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Twenty‐one per cent of regionally priority CWR occur exclusively outside existing protected areas (PAs), 50% are not conserved ex situ, and 64% are predicted to be negatively impacted by climate change. A total of 120 existing PAs in 13 countries were identified as containing populations likely to persist in the future for 80% of CWR taxa and about 50% of the ecogeographic diversity of these taxa; remaining diversity can be conserved in an additional 151 complementary sites in 11 countries. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania contain important areas for conserving CWR diversity in situ in which no negative climate change impact is predicted. Priority CWR diversity in the provinces of Bas‐Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) and Cabinda (Angola) is threatened by climate change and should be collected urgently for ex situ conservation. Other areas rich in ecogeographic diversity that is not conserved ex situ are located in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

          Main conclusions

          We identified 120 PAs and 151 complementary sites outside of PAs in 13 SADC countries that could form the basis of the SADC Network for In Situ Conservation of CWR. We also selected priority areas for filling gaps in ex situ collections and for field survey.

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          Most cited references76

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          Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions

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            Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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              Extinction risk from climate change.

              Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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                Author and article information

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                Journal
                Diversity and Distributions
                Diversity and Distributions
                Wiley
                1366-9516
                1472-4642
                July 2022
                May 12 2022
                July 2022
                : 28
                : 7
                : 1358-1372
                Affiliations
                [1 ] School of Biosciences University of Birmingham Birmingham UK
                [2 ] The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Rome Italy
                [3 ] Department of Geoinformatics Paris Lodron University of Salzburg Salzburg Austria
                [4 ] Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Ciudad Universitaria Bogotá Colombia
                [5 ] The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Rose‐Hill Mauritius
                Article
                10.1111/ddi.13512
                7abab4ed-b22d-4bcc-86d8-bc7f8f54fdcf
                © 2022

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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