A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

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Abstract

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between two age groups in Kenya. We fitted the model to data using MCMC technique and inferred the parameters. We also estimate the reproduction numbers, namely within age group transmission and between age groups transmission basic reproduction numbers. The analysis of the data revealed that there is significant difference in mean number of new HIV infections between males and females within the two age groups. More, particularly, females are highly infected with HIV as compared to their male counterparts. Calculation of the reproduction numbers within and between age groups provides insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of infection. More specifically, the analysis showed that the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest when there is interaction between young adults to adults and most HIV infections occurred in adult population. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the reproduction numbers depend mainly on the probabilities of infection. This results can be used to guide HIV interventions, condom distribution and antiretroviral therapy. Precisely, the results can be used to educate the young adults on practicing safe sex with their partners in order to contain the occurrence of new infections.

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Is Open Access

Mathematical Modeling of HIV Prevention Measures Including Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis on HIV Incidence in South Korea

Sun Bean Kim, Myoungho Yoon, Nam Ku … (2014)

Background Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. Methods We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Results Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. Conclusions This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.