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      Interannual Variability and Scenarios Projection of Sea Ice in Bohai Sea Part I: Variation Characteristics and Interannual Hindcast

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          Abstract

          The Bohai Sea is one of the southernmost areas for sea ice formation in the northern hemisphere. Sea ice disasters in this body of water severely affect marine activities and the safety of coastal residents. In this study, we analyze the variation characteristics of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and establish an annual regression model based on predictable mode analysis method. The results show the following: 1) From 1970 to 2018, the average ice grade is (2.6±0.8), with a maximum of 4.5 and a minimum of 1.0. Liaodong Bay (LDB) has the heaviest ice conditions in the Bohai Sea, followed by Bohai Bay (BHB) and Laizhou Bay (LZB). Interannual variation is obvious in all three bays, but the linear decreasing trend is significant only in BHB. 2) Three modes are obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis, namely, single polarity mode with the same sign of anomaly in all of the three bays and strong interannual variability (82.0%), the north–south dipole mode with BHB and LZB showing an opposite sign of anomalies to that in LDB and strong decadal variations (14.5%), and a linear trend mode (3.5%). Critical factors are analyzed and regression equations are established for all the principal components, and then an annual hindcast model is established by synthesizing the results of the three modes. This model provides an annual spatial prediction of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea for the first time, and meets the demand of operational sea ice forecasting.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          JOUC
          Journal of Ocean University of China
          Science Press and Springer (China )
          1672-5182
          24 January 2020
          01 April 2020
          : 19
          : 2
          : 272-280
          Affiliations
          1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Study, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
          2North China Sea Marine Forecast Center, Qingdao 266061, China
          3Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
          4North China Sea Data & Information Service, Qingdao 266061, China
          Author notes
          *Corresponding author: HUANG Fei, Tel: 0086-532-66786326, E-mail: huangf@ 123456ouc.edu.cn
          Article
          s11802-020-4236-4
          10.1007/s11802-020-4236-4
          Copyright © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2020.

          The copyright to this article, including any graphic elements therein (e.g. illustrations, charts, moving images), is hereby assigned for good and valuable consideration to the editorial office of Journal of Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer effective if and when the article is accepted for publication and to the extent assignable if assignability is restricted for by applicable law or regulations (e.g. for U.S. government or crown employees).

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          Self URI (journal-page): https://www.springer.com/journal/11802

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