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      Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Health–Based Integrated Care for Atrial Fibrillation: Model Development and Data Analysis

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          Abstract

          Background

          Mobile health (mHealth) technology is increasingly used in disease management. Using mHealth tools to integrate and streamline care has improved clinical outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

          Objective

          The aim of this study was to investigate the potential clinical and health economic outcomes of mHealth-based integrated care for AF from the perspective of a public health care provider in China.

          Methods

          A Markov model was designed to compare outcomes of mHealth-based care and usual care in a hypothetical cohort of patients with AF in China. The time horizon was 30 years with monthly cycles. Model outcomes measured were direct medical cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the base-case results.

          Results

          In the base-case analysis, mHealth-based care gained higher QALYs of 0.0730 with an incurred cost of US $1090. Using US $33,438 per QALY (three times the gross domestic product) as the willingness-to-pay threshold, mHealth-based care was cost-effective, with an ICER of US $14,936 per QALY. In one-way sensitivity analysis, no influential factor with a threshold value was identified. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, mHealth-based care was accepted as cost-effective in 92.33% of 10,000 iterations.

          Conclusions

          This study assessed the expected cost-effectiveness of applying mHealth-based integrated care for AF according to a model-based health economic evaluation. The exploration suggested the potential cost-effective use of mHealth apps in streamlining and integrating care via the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway for AF in China. Future economic evaluation alongside randomized clinical trials is highly warranted to verify the suggestion and investigate affecting factors such as geographical variations in patient characteristics, identification of subgroups, and constraints on local implementation.

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          Most cited references40

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          Prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation in adults: national implications for rhythm management and stroke prevention: the AnTicoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Study.

          Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in elderly persons and a potent risk factor for stroke. However, recent prevalence and projected future numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation are not well described. To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation and US national projections of the numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation through the year 2050. Cross-sectional study of adults aged 20 years or older who were enrolled in a large health maintenance organization in California and who had atrial fibrillation diagnosed between July 1, 1996, and December 31, 1997. Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the study population of 1.89 million; projected number of persons in the United States with atrial fibrillation between 1995-2050. A total of 17 974 adults with diagnosed atrial fibrillation were identified during the study period; 45% were aged 75 years or older. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 0.95% (95% confidence interval, 0.94%-0.96%). Atrial fibrillation was more common in men than in women (1.1% vs 0.8%; P<.001). Prevalence increased from 0.1% among adults younger than 55 years to 9.0% in persons aged 80 years or older. Among persons aged 50 years or older, prevalence of atrial fibrillation was higher in whites than in blacks (2.2% vs 1.5%; P<.001). We estimate approximately 2.3 million US adults currently have atrial fibrillation. We project that this will increase to more than 5.6 million (lower bound, 5.0; upper bound, 6.3) by the year 2050, with more than 50% of affected individuals aged 80 years or older. Our study confirms that atrial fibrillation is common among older adults and provides a contemporary basis for estimates of prevalence in the United States. The number of patients with atrial fibrillation is likely to increase 2.5-fold during the next 50 years, reflecting the growing proportion of elderly individuals. Coordinated efforts are needed to face the increasing challenge of optimal stroke prevention and rhythm management in patients with atrial fibrillation.
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            Meta-analysis: antithrombotic therapy to prevent stroke in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

            Atrial fibrillation is a strong independent risk factor for stroke. To characterize the efficacy and safety of antithrombotic agents for stroke prevention in patients who have atrial fibrillation, adding 13 recent randomized trials to a previous meta-analysis. Randomized trials identified by using the Cochrane Stroke Group search strategy, 1966 to March 2007, unrestricted by language. All published randomized trials with a mean follow-up of 3 months or longer that tested antithrombotic agents in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Two coauthors independently extracted information regarding interventions; participants; and occurrences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, major extracranial bleeding, and death. Twenty-nine trials included 28,044 participants (mean age, 71 years; mean follow-up, 1.5 years). Compared with the control, adjusted-dose warfarin (6 trials, 2900 participants) and antiplatelet agents (8 trials, 4876 participants) reduced stroke by 64% (95% CI, 49% to 74%) and 22% (CI, 6% to 35%), respectively. Adjusted-dose warfarin was substantially more efficacious than antiplatelet therapy (relative risk reduction, 39% [CI, 22% to 52%]) (12 trials, 12 963 participants). Other randomized comparisons were inconclusive. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage were small (< or =0.3% per year) on the basis of meta-analysis. Methodological features and quality varied substantially and often were incompletely reported. Adjusted-dose warfarin and antiplatelet agents reduce stroke by approximately 60% and by approximately 20%, respectively, in patients who have atrial fibrillation. Warfarin is substantially more efficacious (by approximately 40%) than antiplatelet therapy. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage associated with antithrombotic therapy in participants from the trials included in this meta-analysis were less than the absolute reductions in stroke. Judicious use of antithrombotic therapy importantly reduces stroke for most patients who have atrial fibrillation.
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              Epidemiology of atrial fibrillation: European perspective

              In the last 20 years, atrial fibrillation (AF) has become one of the most important public health problems and a significant cause of increasing health care costs in western countries. The prevalence of AF is increasing due to our greater ability to treat chronic cardiac and noncardiac diseases, and the improved ability to suspect and diagnose AF. At the present time, the prevalence of AF (2%) is double that reported in the last decade. The prevalence of AF varies with age and sex. AF is present in 0.12%–0.16% of those younger than 49 years, in 3.7%–4.2% of those aged 60–70 years, and in 10%–17% of those aged 80 years or older. In addition, it occurs more frequently in males, with a male to female ratio of 1.2:1. The incidence of AF ranges between 0.21 and 0.41 per 1,000 person/years. Permanent AF occurs in approximately 50% of patients, and paroxysmal and persistent AF in 25% each. AF is frequently associated with cardiac disease and comorbidities. The most common concomitant diseases are coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, and cardiomyopathy. The most common comorbidities are hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal failure, stroke, and cognitive disturbance. Paroxysmal AF occurs in younger patients and with a reduced burden of both cardiac disease and comorbidities. Generally, the history of AF is long, burdened by frequent recurrences, and associated with symptoms (in two thirds of patients). Patients with AF have a five-fold and two-fold higher risk of stroke and death, respectively. We estimate that the number of patients with AF in 2030 in Europe will be 14–17 million and the number of new cases of AF per year at 120,000–215,000. Given that AF is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF will have major public health implications.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                J Med Internet Res
                J Med Internet Res
                JMIR
                Journal of Medical Internet Research
                JMIR Publications (Toronto, Canada )
                1439-4456
                1438-8871
                April 2022
                19 April 2022
                : 24
                : 4
                : e29408
                Affiliations
                [1 ] School of Public Health and Management Chongqing Medical University Chongqing China
                [2 ] School of Biological and Chemical Engineering Chongqing University of Education Chongqing China
                [3 ] Research Center for Medicine and Social Development Chongqing Medical University Chongqing China
                [4 ] School of International Pharmaceutical Business China Pharmaceutical University Nanjin China
                [5 ] Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong
                [6 ] School of Pharmacy The Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong
                [7 ] Chong Qing Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd Chongqing China
                [8 ] School of Basic Medical Science Army Medical University Chongqing China
                Author notes
                Corresponding Author: Xiaoni Zhong zhongxiaoni@ 123456cqmu.edu.cn
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7227-7111
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6925-0636
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8846-7515
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6647-2364
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0587-6357
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6149-6853
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6108-539X
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8035-1841
                Article
                v24i4e29408
                10.2196/29408
                9066334
                35438646
                820b397f-bfa1-48a2-8a98-3d85732fff65
                ©Xueyan Luo, Wei Xu, Wai-Kit Ming, Xinchan Jiang, Quan Yuan, Han Lai, Chunji Huang, Xiaoni Zhong. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 19.04.2022.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on https://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

                History
                : 7 April 2021
                : 7 July 2021
                : 23 September 2021
                : 24 February 2022
                Categories
                Original Paper
                Original Paper

                Medicine
                mobile health,integrated care,abc pathway,atrial fibrillation,model-based,cost-effectiveness,health economic evaluation

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