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      Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

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          Abstract

          Background

          Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.

          Methods and Findings

          A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT) to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product.

          Conclusions

          International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while their costs are minimal, dismissal of travel restrictions as an aid in dealing with a global pandemic seems premature.

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          Most cited references21

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          Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States.

          Recent human deaths due to infection by highly pathogenic (H5N1) avian influenza A virus have raised the specter of a devastating pandemic like that of 1917-1918, should this avian virus evolve to become readily transmissible among humans. We introduce and use a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million individuals for R(0) (the basic reproductive number) from 1.6 to 2.4. We model the impact that a variety of levels and combinations of influenza antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) have on the timing and magnitude of this spread. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For R(0) < 1.9, our model suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines, even if poorly matched to circulating strains, could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to <10% of the population, particularly if children are preferentially vaccinated. Alternatively, the aggressive deployment of several million courses of influenza antiviral agents in a targeted prophylaxis strategy may contain a nascent outbreak with low R(0), provided adequate contact tracing and distribution capacities exist. For higher R(0), we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve similar limits on illness rates.
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            Prediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the airline transportation network

            The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease. We present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.
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              A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Academic Editor
                Journal
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2007
                2 May 2007
                : 2
                : 5
                : e401
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America
                [2 ]Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States of America
                [3 ]Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America
                Medical University of South Carolina, United States of America
                Author notes
                * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jepstein@ 123456brookings.edu

                Conceived and designed the experiments: JE DG GB. Performed the experiments: DG FY RM. Analyzed the data: JE DG GB DW. Wrote the paper: JE DG GB DW. Other: Built and tested the model: FY RM DG.

                Article
                07-PONE-RA-00641R1
                10.1371/journal.pone.0000401
                1855004
                17476323
                85a165d9-cd50-4567-8440-7e322b44dac3
                Epstein et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 19 January 2007
                : 4 April 2007
                Page count
                Pages: 11
                Categories
                Research Article
                Public Health and Epidemiology
                Infectious Diseases/Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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