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      The Outlook for Population Growth

      Science
      American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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          Abstract

          Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

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          Most cited references10

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          Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy.

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            Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth

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              The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change

              Ronald Lee (2003)
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Science
                Science
                American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
                0036-8075
                1095-9203
                July 28 2011
                July 29 2011
                July 28 2011
                July 29 2011
                : 333
                : 6042
                : 569-573
                Article
                10.1126/science.1208859
                3155613
                21798936
                8908e32f-7ba8-4bbb-a848-224b34a5312c
                © 2011
                History

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