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      Neighborhood, built environment and resilience in transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic

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          Abstract

          COVID-19 has swept the world, and the unprecedented decline in transit ridership has been noticed. However, little attention has been paid to the resilience of the transportation system, particularly in medium-sized cities. Drawing upon a light rail ridership dataset in Salt Lake County from 2017 to 2021, we develop a novel method to measure the vulnerability and resilience of transit ridership using a Bayesian structure time series model. The results show that government policies have a more significant impact than the number of COVID-19 cases on transit ridership. Regarding the built environment, a highly compact urban design might reduce the building coverage ratio and makes transit stations more vulnerable and less resilient. Furthermore, the high rate of minorities is the primary reason for the drops in transit ridership. The findings are valuable for understanding the vulnerability and resilience of transit ridership to pandemics for better coping strategies in the future.

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          Most cited references80

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          Defining urban resilience: A review

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            The effect of COVID-19 and subsequent social distancing on travel behavior

            The spread of the COVID-19 virus has resulted in unprecedented measures restricting travel and activity participation in many countries. Social distancing, i.e., reducing interactions between individuals in order to slow down the spread of the virus, has become the new norm. In this viewpoint I will discuss the potential implications of social distancing on daily travel patterns. Avoiding social contact might completely change the number and types of out-of-home activities people perform, and how people reach these activities. It can be expected that the demand for travel will reduce and that people will travel less by public transport. Social distancing might negatively affect subjective well-being and health status, as it might result in social isolation and limited physical activity. As a result, walking and cycling, recreationally or utilitarian, can be important ways to maintain satisfactory levels of health and well-being. Policymakers and planners should consequently try to encourage active travel, while public transport operators should focus on creating ways to safely use public transport.
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              COVID-19, unemployment, and suicide

              The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the introduction of strong restrictive measures that are having a substantial effect on the global economy, including an increase in the unemployment rate worldwide. 1 In a previous study, 2 we modelled the effect of unemployment on suicide on the basis of global public data from 63 countries, and we observed that suicide risk was elevated by 20–30% when associated with unemployment during 2000–11 (including the 2008 economic crisis). We have now used this model to predict the effects of the currently expected rise in the unemployment rate on suicide rates. Close to 800 000 people die by suicide every year. 3 We used our core model's estimates (intercept, sex, age group, and unemployment) 2 to describe the non-linear connection between unemployment and suicide. We applied the overall estimates to World Bank Open Data (ie, worldwide number in the labour force in 2019, unemployment rate [modelled estimate from the International Labour Organization] for 2019, and male and female populations in 2018 in the four age groups). Because the model predicted only 671 301 suicides with this data, instead of 800 000, we added a correction term of 0·17 to address differences in space (194 vs 63 countries) and time (2020 vs 2000). The expected number of job losses due to COVID-19 were taken from the International Labour Organization's press release from March 18, 2020, 1 reporting a decline of 24·7 million jobs as a high scenario and 5·3 million jobs lost as a low scenario. In the high scenario, the worldwide unemployment rate would increase from 4·936% to 5·644%, which would be associated with an increase in suicides of about 9570 per year. In the low scenario, the unemployment would increase to 5·088%, associated with an increase of about 2135 suicides. According to WHO, each suicide in a population is accompanied by more than 20 suicide attempts. 3 Thus, the number of mentally distressed people who might seek help from mental health services can be expected to increase in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the economic crisis of 2008 showed that the increase in suicides preceded the actual rise in the unemployment rate. 2 We therefore expect an extra burden for our mental health system, and the medical community should prepare for this challenge now. Mental health providers should also raise awareness in politics and society that rising unemployment is associated with an increased number of suicides. The downsizing of the economy and the focus of the medical system on the COVID-19 pandemic can lead to unintended long-term problems for a vulnerable group on the fringes of society. It is important that various services, such as hotlines and psychiatric services, remain able to respond appropriately.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Transp Res D Transp Environ
                Transp Res D Transp Environ
                Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment
                Elsevier Ltd.
                1361-9209
                1879-2340
                12 August 2022
                12 August 2022
                : 103428
                Affiliations
                [a ]Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu 214000, China
                [b ]Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9155, USA
                [c ]School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S1361-9209(22)00254-1 103428
                10.1016/j.trd.2022.103428
                9371985
                926737e9-20ac-47cc-a626-7e07be5c83f9
                © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 20 May 2022
                : 20 July 2022
                : 6 August 2022
                Categories
                Article

                transit ridership,covid-19,bayesian structure time series,regression tree,build environment

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