Sequential Change-point Detection for Binomial Time Series with Exogenous Variables

Abstract

Sequential change-point detection for time series enables us to sequentially check the hypothesis that the model still holds as more and more data are observed. It's widely used in data monitoring in practice. Meanwhile, binomial time series, which depicts independent binary individual behaviors within a group when the individual behaviors are dependent on past observations of the whole group, is an important type of model in practice but hasn't been developed well. We first propose a Binomial AR(\(1\)) model, and then consider a method for sequential change-point detection for the Binomial AR(1).