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      COVID-19 Did Not Stop the Rising Tide: Trends in Case Volume Logged by Surgical Residents

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          The coronavirus pandemic has profoundly impacted all facets of surgical care, including surgical residency training. The objective of this study was to assess the operative experience and overall case volume of surgery residents before and during the pandemic.

          Methods

          Using data from the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) annual operative log reports, operative volume for 2015-2021 graduates of ACGME-accredited general, orthopedic, neuro- and plastic surgery residency programs was analyzed using non-parametric Kendall-tau correlation analysis. The period before the pandemic was defined as AY14-15 to AY18-19, and the pandemic period was defined as AY19-20 to AY20-21.

          Results

          Operative data for 8,556 general, 5,113 orthopedic, 736 plastic, and 1,278 neurosurgery residency graduates were included. Between 2015-2021, total case volume increased significantly for general surgery graduates (Kendall's tau-b: 0.905, p=0.007), orthopedic surgery graduates (Kendall's tau-b: 1.000, p=0.003), neurosurgery graduates (Kendall's tau-b: 0.905, p=0.007), and plastic surgery graduates (Kendall's tau-b: 0.810, p=0.016). Across all specialties, the mean total number of cases performed by residents graduating during the pandemic was higher than among residents graduating before the pandemic, though no formal significance testing was performed. Among general surgery residents, the number of cases performed as surgeon chief among residents graduating in AY19-20 decreased for the first time in 5 years, though the overall volume remained higher than the prior year, and returned to pre-pandemic trends in AY20-21.

          Conclusion

          Over the past 7 years, the case volume of surgical residents steadily increased. Surgical trainees who graduated during the coronavirus pandemic have equal or greater total operative experience compared to trainees who graduated prior to the pandemic.

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          Most cited references66

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          The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review

          The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 1.4 million confirmed cases and over 83,000 deaths globally. It has also sparked fears of an impending economic crisis and recession. Social distancing, self-isolation and travel restrictions forced a decrease in the workforce across all economic sectors and caused many jobs to be lost. Schools have closed down, and the need of commodities and manufactured products has decreased. In contrast, the need for medical supplies has significantly increased. The food sector has also seen a great demand due to panic-buying and stockpiling of food products. In response to this global outbreak, we summarise the socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on individual aspects of the world economy.
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            Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID ‐19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

            Background The COVID‐19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID‐19. Methods A global expert‐response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta‐regression model was used to estimate 12‐week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case‐mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case‐mix was applied to country‐level surgical volumes. The 12‐week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results The best estimate was that 28,404,603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID‐19 (2,367,050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25,638,922/28,404,603). The overall 12‐week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25,638,921/31,378,062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2,324,069/6,162,311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441,611/1,735,483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post‐pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID‐19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID‐19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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              Is Open Access

              Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review

              Objectives To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic. Design Systematic review. Eligibility Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19. Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact. Data analysis Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis. Outcome measures Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores). Results 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR −51% to −20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (−53% to −32%), admissions 28% (−40% to −17%), diagnostics 31% (−53% to −24%) and for therapeutics 30% (−57% to −19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference. Conclusions Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery. PROSPERO registration number CRD42020203729.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Associate Professor
                Journal
                J Surg Educ
                J Surg Educ
                Journal of Surgical Education
                Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Association of Program Directors in Surgery.
                1931-7204
                1878-7452
                23 November 2022
                23 November 2022
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Surgery, Boston Medical Center, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA
                [2 ]Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding Author: Department of Surgical Oncology, Boston Medical Center, 820 Harrison Avenue, FGH Building – Suite 5007, Boston, MA 02118
                Article
                S1931-7204(22)00308-7
                10.1016/j.jsurg.2022.11.005
                9682049
                9953c6b9-cfab-4883-a001-1208b11bad7e
                © 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Association of Program Directors in Surgery.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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