Trends in Stroke Incidence in High-Income Countries in the 21st Century

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Abstract

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background and Purpose—

Population-based studies provide the most reliable data on stroke incidence. A previous systematic review of population-based studies suggested that stroke incidence in high-income countries decreased by 42% between the 1970s and early 2000s. However, it is uncertain whether this trend of steady decline has been maintained in more recent periods.

Methods—

Data from OCSP (Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project; 1981–1986) and OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002–2017) along with other published population-based stroke incidence studies that reported temporal trends of stroke incidence since 1990 in high-income countries were included. Age-standardized relative incidence rate ratios were calculated for each study and then pooled with inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analysis. Projection estimates were calculated for the number of incident stroke patients in the United Kingdom from year 2015 to 2045.

Results—

In Oxfordshire, stroke incidence fell by 32% from OCSP to OXVASC, with a similar trend before or after year 2000. With the projected aging population, if the age-specific stroke incidence continued to decrease at its current rate (6% every 5 years), there would still be a 13% increase of the number of first-ever strokes in the United Kingdom up to year 2045. Incorporating the Oxfordshire data with other 12 population-based studies, stroke incidence declined steadily between the 1990s and 2010s within each study, resulting in a 28% decline over an average period of 16.5 years (pooled incidence rate ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66–0.79]; P<0.0001). The trend was the same for men (0.69 [95% CI, 0.61–0.77]; P<0.0001) and women (0.66 [95% CI, 0.59–0.74]; P<0.0001) and remained consistent after year 2010 in OXVASC. Proportion of disabling or fatal stroke also decreased over time (early versus later period, 53.6% versus 46.1%; P=0.02).

Conclusions—

Stroke incidence is continuing to decline with steady rate in Oxfordshire and in other high-income settings. However, the absolute number of strokes occurring is not falling.

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Most cited references 36

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Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Emily Sonestedt, Kim Overvad (2016)

Summary Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world’s men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world’s poorest regions, especially in south Asia. Funding Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

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Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study).

P M Rothwell, A Coull, M F Giles … (2004)

The incidence of stroke is predicted to rise because of the rapidly ageing population. However, over the past two decades, findings of randomised trials have identified several interventions that are effective in prevention of stroke. Reliable data on time-trends in stroke incidence, major risk factors, and use of preventive treatments in an ageing population are required to ascertain whether implementation of preventive strategies can offset the predicted rise in stroke incidence. We aimed to obtain these data. We ascertained changes in incidence of transient ischaemic attack and stroke, risk factors, and premorbid use of preventive treatments from 1981-84 (Oxford Community Stroke Project; OCSP) to 2002-04 (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC). Of 476 patients with transient ischaemic attacks or strokes in OXVASC, 262 strokes and 93 transient ischaemic attacks were incident events. Despite more complete case-ascertainment than in OCSP, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke fell by 29% (relative incidence 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.83, p=0.0002). Incidence declined by more than 50% for primary intracerebral haemorrhage (0.47, 0.27-0.83, p=0.01) but was unchanged for subarachnoid haemorrhage (0.83, 0.44-1.57, p=0.57). Thus, although 28% more incident strokes (366 vs 286) were expected in OXVASC due to demographic change alone (33% increase in those aged 75 or older), the observed number fell (262 vs 286). Major reductions were recorded in mortality rates for incident stroke (0.63, 0.44-0.90, p=0.02) and in incidence of disabling or fatal stroke (0.60, 0.50-0.73, p<0.0001), but no change was seen in case-fatality due to incident stroke (17.2% vs 17.8%; age and sex adjusted relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.57-1.28, p=0.45). Comparison of premorbid risk factors revealed substantial reductions in the proportion of smokers, mean total cholesterol, and mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and major increases in premorbid treatment with antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, and blood pressure lowering drugs (all p<0.0001). The age-specific incidence of major stroke in Oxfordshire has fallen by 40% over the past 20 years in association with increased use of preventive treatments and major reductions in premorbid risk factors.

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Population-based study of event-rate, incidence, case fatality, and mortality for all acute vascular events in all arterial territories (Oxford Vascular Study).

P M Rothwell, A Coull, L Silver … (2005)

Acute coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events have common underlying arterial pathology, risk factors, and preventive treatments, but they are rarely studied concurrently. In the Oxford Vascular Study, we determined the comparative epidemiology of different acute vascular syndromes, their current burdens, and the potential effect of the ageing population on future rates. We prospectively assessed all individuals presenting with an acute vascular event of any type in any arterial territory irrespective of age in a population of 91 106 in Oxfordshire, UK, in 2002-05. 2024 acute vascular events occurred in 1657 individuals: 918 (45%) cerebrovascular (618 stroke, 300 transient ischaemic attacks [TIA]); 856 (42%) coronary vascular (159 ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 316 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 218 unstable angina, 163 sudden cardiac death); 188 (9%) peripheral vascular (43 aortic, 53 embolic visceral or limb ischaemia, 92 critical limb ischaemia); and 62 unclassifiable deaths. Relative incidence of cerebrovascular events compared with coronary events was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06-1.33) overall; 1.40 (1.23-1.59) for non-fatal events; and 1.21 (1.04-1.41) if TIA and unstable angina were further excluded. Event and incidence rates rose steeply with age in all arterial territories, with 735 (80%) cerebrovascular, 623 (73%) coronary, and 147 (78%) peripheral vascular events in 12 886 (14%) individuals aged 65 years or older; and 503 (54%), 402 (47%), and 105 (56%), respectively, in the 5919 (6%) aged 75 years or older. Although case-fatality rates increased with age, 736 (47%) of 1561 non-fatal events occurred at age 75 years or older. The high rates of acute vascular events outside the coronary arterial territory and the steep rise in event rates with age in all territories have implications for prevention strategies, clinical trial design, and the targeting of funds for service provision and research.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Stroke

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Stroke

Journal ID (publisher-id): STR

Title: Stroke

Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

ISSN (Print): 0039-2499

ISSN (Electronic): 1524-4628

Publication date (Print): May 2020

Publication date (Electronic): 25 March 2020

Volume: 51

Issue: 5

Pages: 1372-1380

Affiliations

[1]From the Nuffield Wolfson Centre for Prevention of Stroke and Dementia, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.

Author notes

Correspondence to: Peter M. Rothwell, FMedSci, Wolfson Centre for Prevention of Stroke and Dementia, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, John Radcliffe Hospital, Wolfson Bldg, Headley Way, Headington, Oxford OX3 9DU. Email peter.rothwell@ 123456ndcn.ox.ac.uk

Article

Accession ID: 00007

DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.119.028484

PMC ID: 7185053

PubMed ID: 32208842

SO-VID: a0fbc01e-4b7b-42c1-95fa-ef93b7494ad7

License:

Stroke is published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited.

History

Date received : 19 November 2019

Date revision received : 3 January 2020

Date accepted : 17 February 2020

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Keywords: cohort study,incidence,stroke,systematic review

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Keywords: cohort study, incidence, stroke, systematic review

Trends in Stroke Incidence in High-Income Countries in the 21st Century : Population-Based Study and Systematic Review

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Abstract

Background and Purpose—

Methods—

Results—

Conclusions—

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Stroke MRI

Most cited references 36

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study).

Population-based study of event-rate, incidence, case fatality, and mortality for all acute vascular events in all arterial territories (Oxford Vascular Study).

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