China’s current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future

Abstract

Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly reduces the buildup of CO ₂ concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change. Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age. Here, we predict the role of China’s current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution (30 m) forest age map in 2019 over China’s landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots. As China’s forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands, we project that China’s forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years. However, as the forests grow older, their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0% ± 1.4% in 2050, 8.4% ± 1.6% in 2060, and 16.6% ± 2.8% in 2100, indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future. The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation. This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.

Graphical abstract

Public summary

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  Young and middle forests would sustain China’s current net primary productivity (NPP) for about 15 years.

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  Aging of forests would lead to an 8%–17% decline in China’s NPP in 40–80 years.

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  Optimizing forest age structure can be a way to maintain and enhance China’s carbon sink.