Should Health Care Demand Interpretable Artificial Intelligence or Accept “Black Box” Medicine?

Computerized electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation plays a critical role in the clinical ECG workflow1. Widely available digital ECG data and the algorithmic paradigm of deep learning2 present an opportunity to substantially improve the accuracy and scalability of automated ECG analysis. However, a comprehensive evaluation of an end-to-end deep learning approach for ECG analysis across a wide variety of diagnostic classes has not been previously reported. Here, we develop a deep neural network (DNN) to classify 12 rhythm classes using 91,232 single-lead ECGs from 53,549 patients who used a single-lead ambulatory ECG monitoring device. When validated against an independent test dataset annotated by a consensus committee of board-certified practicing cardiologists, the DNN achieved an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.97. The average F1 score, which is the harmonic mean of the positive predictive value and sensitivity, for the DNN (0.837) exceeded that of average cardiologists (0.780). With specificity fixed at the average specificity achieved by cardiologists, the sensitivity of the DNN exceeded the average cardiologist sensitivity for all rhythm classes. These findings demonstrate that an end-to-end deep learning approach can classify a broad range of distinct arrhythmias from single-lead ECGs with high diagnostic performance similar to that of cardiologists. If confirmed in clinical settings, this approach could reduce the rate of misdiagnosed computerized ECG interpretations and improve the efficiency of expert human ECG interpretation by accurately triaging or prioritizing the most urgent conditions.

Readmissions to hospital are common, costly and often preventable. An easy-to-use index to quantify the risk of readmission or death after discharge from hospital would help clinicians identify patients who might benefit from more intensive post-discharge care. We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community. In a prospective cohort study, 48 patient-level and admission-level variables were collected for 4812 medical and surgical patients who were discharged to the community from 11 hospitals in Ontario. We used a split-sample design to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or nonelective readmission within 30 days after discharge. This index was externally validated using administrative data in a random selection of 1,000,000 Ontarians discharged from hospital between 2004 and 2008. Of the 4812 participating patients, 385 (8.0%) died or were readmitted on an unplanned basis within 30 days after discharge. Variables independently associated with this outcome (from which we derived the mnemonic "LACE") included length of stay ("L"); acuity of the admission ("A"); comorbidity of the patient (measured with the Charlson comorbidity index score) ("C"); and emergency department use (measured as the number of visits in the six months before admission) ("E"). Scores using the LACE index ranged from 0 (2.0% expected risk of death or urgent readmission within 30 days) to 19 (43.7% expected risk). The LACE index was discriminative (C statistic 0.684) and very accurate (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 14.1, p=0.59) at predicting outcome risk. The LACE index can be used to quantify risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital. This index can be used with both primary and administrative data. Further research is required to determine whether such quantification changes patient care or outcomes.