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      A Novel Large-Scale Temperature Dominated Model for Predicting the End of the Growing Season

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          Abstract

          Vegetation phenology regulates many ecosystem processes and is an indicator of the biological responses to climate change. It is important to model the timing of leaf senescence accurately, since the canopy duration and carbon assimilation are strongly determined by the timings of leaf senescence. However, the existing phenology models are unlikely to accurately predict the end of the growing season (EGS) on large scales, resulting in the misrepresentation of the seasonality and interannual variability of biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled global climate models. In this paper, we presented a novel large-scale temperature dominated model integrated with the physiological adaptation of plants to the local temperature to assess the spatial pattern and interannual variability of the EGS. Our model was validated in all temperate vegetation types over the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that our model showed better performance in representing the spatial and interannual variability of leaf senescence, compared with the original phenology model in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). Our model explained approximately 63% of the EGS variations, whereas the original model explained much lower variations (coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.01–0.18). In addition, the differences between the EGS reproduced by our model and the MODIS EGS at 71.3% of the pixels were within 10 days. For the original model, it is only 26.1%. We also found that the temperature threshold (TcritTm) of grassland was lower than that of woody species in the same latitudinal zone.

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          Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change.

          Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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            A unified model for budburst of trees.

            I Chuine (2000)
            Accurate plant phenology (seasonal plant activity driven by environmental factors) models are vital tools for ecosystem simulation models and for predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change. Since the early 1970s, efforts have concentrated on predicting phenology of the temperate and boreal forests because they represent one-third of the carbon captured in plant ecosystems and they are the principal ecosystems with seasonal patterns of growth on Earth (one-fifth of the plant ecosystems area). Numerous phenological models have been developed to predict the growth timing of temperate or boreal trees. They are in general empirical, nonlinear and non-nested. For these reasons they are particularly difficult to fit, to test and to compare with each other. The methodological difficulties as well as the diversity of models used have greatly slowed down their improvement. The aim of this study was to show that the most widely used models simulating vegetative or reproductive phenology of trees are particular cases of a more general model. This unified model has three main advantages. First, it allows for a direct estimation of (i) the response of bud growth to either chilling or forcing temperatures and (ii) the periods when these temperatures affect the bud growth. Second, it can be simplified according to standard statistical tests for any particular species. Third, it provides a standardized framework for phenological models, which is essential for comparative studies as well as for robust model identification. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.
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              Responses of canopy duration to temperature changes in four temperate tree species: relative contributions of spring and autumn leaf phenology.

              While changes in spring phenological events due to global warming have been widely documented, changes in autumn phenology, and therefore in growing season length, are less studied and poorly understood. However, it may be helpful to assess the potential lengthening of the growing season under climate warming in order to determine its further impact on forest productivity and C balance. The present study aimed to: (1) characterise the sensitivity of leaf phenological events to temperature, and (2) quantify the relative contributions of leaf unfolding and senescence to the extension of canopy duration with increasing temperature, in four deciduous tree species (Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus petraea). For 3 consecutive years, we monitored the spring and autumn phenology of 41 populations at elevations ranging from 100 to 1,600 m. Overall, we found significant altitudinal trends in leaf phenology and species-specific differences in temperature sensitivity. With increasing temperature, we recorded an advance in flushing from 1.9 +/- 0.3 to 6.6 +/- 0.4 days degrees C(-1) (mean +/- SD) and a 0 to 5.6 +/- 0.6 days degrees C(-1) delay in leaf senescence. Together both changes resulted in a 6.9 +/- 1.0 to 13.0 +/- 0.7 days degrees C(-1) lengthening of canopy duration depending on species. For three of the four studied species, advances in flushing were the main factor responsible for lengthening canopy duration with increasing temperature, leading to a potentially larger gain in solar radiation than delays in leaf senescence. In contrast, for beech, we found a higher sensitivity to temperature in leaf senescence than in flushing, resulting in an equivalent contribution in solar radiation gain. These results suggest that climate warming will alter the C uptake period and forest productivity by lengthening canopy duration. Moreover, the between-species differences in phenological responses to temperature evidenced here could affect biotic interactions under climate warming.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                28 November 2016
                2016
                : 11
                : 11
                : e0167302
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, PR China
                [2 ]Key Laboratory of Network Control System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, PR China
                [3 ]Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
                Beijing Normal University, CHINA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                • Conceptualization: YF ZYZ.

                • Data curation: RX.

                • Formal analysis: YF.

                • Funding acquisition: ZYZ.

                • Investigation: ZYZ.

                • Methodology: ZYZ.

                • Project administration: ZYZ.

                • Resources: YF.

                • Software: HBS YF.

                • Supervision: RX.

                • Validation: RX.

                • Visualization: ZYZ.

                • Writing – original draft: YF.

                • Writing – review & editing: ZYZ RX.

                Article
                PONE-D-16-35876
                10.1371/journal.pone.0167302
                5125685
                27893828
                aec7b8bc-c251-43a3-ac80-a655ca3481f1
                © 2016 Fu et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 6 September 2016
                : 12 November 2016
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 1, Pages: 13
                Funding
                Funded by: the Program for One-hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
                Award ID: Y5AA100A01
                Award Recipient :
                This study was supported by the Program for One-hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y5AA100A01). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Plant Science
                Plant Anatomy
                Leaves
                Earth sciences
                Geography
                Geographic areas
                Northern Hemisphere
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecosystems
                Forests
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Ecosystems
                Forests
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Terrestrial Environments
                Forests
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Plant Ecology
                Plant Communities
                Grasslands
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Plant Ecology
                Plant Communities
                Grasslands
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Plant Science
                Plant Ecology
                Plant Communities
                Grasslands
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Terrestrial Environments
                Grasslands
                Earth Sciences
                Geography
                Physical Geography
                Biosphere
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Plants
                Shrubs
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Organisms
                Plants
                Trees
                Earth Sciences
                Seasons
                Custom metadata
                Data are available from from the MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) ( http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra) and the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC)( https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/data_access/data_pool) for researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data.

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