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      Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India

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          Abstract

          A new version of the fuzzy logic model, called the co-active neuro fuzzy inference system (CANFIS), is introduced for predicting standardized precipitation index (SPI). Multiple scales of drought information at six meteorological stations located in Uttarakhand State, India, are used. Different lead times of SPI were computed for prediction, including 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months, with inputs abstracted by autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial-ACF (PACF) analysis at 5% significance level. The proposed CANFIS model was validated against two models: classical artificial intelligence model (e.g., multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)) and regression model (e.g., multiple linear regression (MLR)). Several performance evaluation metrices (root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of correlation, and Willmott index), and graphical visualizations (scatter plot and Taylor diagram) were computed for the evaluation of model performance. Results indicated that the CANFIS model predicted the SPI better than the other models and prediction results were different for different meteorological stations. The proposed model can build a reliable expert intelligent system for predicting meteorological drought at multi-time scales and decision making for remedial schemes to cope with meteorological drought at the study stations and can help to maintain sustainable water resources management.

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          Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: InvestigationRole: ValidationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                21 May 2020
                2020
                : 15
                : 5
                : e0233280
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Technology, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Uttarakhand, India
                [2 ] Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
                [3 ] Department of Railroad Construction and Safety Engineering, Dongyang University, Yeongju, South Korea
                [4 ] Department of Land, Water and Environment Research Institute: Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, South Korea
                [5 ] Sustainable Developments in Civil Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
                [6 ] Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, Austin, Texas, United States of America
                [7 ] National Water Center, UAE University, Al Ein, United Arab Emirates
                Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0298-5777
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3647-7137
                Article
                PONE-D-19-22654
                10.1371/journal.pone.0233280
                7241731
                32437386
                c003b5ed-7ef8-43de-9e04-023926dd3568
                © 2020 Malik et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 11 August 2019
                : 1 May 2020
                Page count
                Figures: 21, Tables: 7, Pages: 31
                Funding
                This research was funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, grant number 20200027-001.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Drought
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Artificial Intelligence
                Artificial Neural Networks
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Computational Biology
                Computational Neuroscience
                Artificial Neural Networks
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Neuroscience
                Computational Neuroscience
                Artificial Neural Networks
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Meteorology
                Rain
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Statistics
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Meteorology
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Artificial Intelligence
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Natural Resources
                Water Resources
                Computer and Information Sciences
                Artificial Intelligence
                Machine Learning
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

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