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      Caos determinístico em um modelo simplificado de cadeia produtiva Translated title: Deterministic chaos in simplified supply chain model

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          Abstract

          Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo teórico simplificado de cadeia produtiva onde as relações entre o número de competidores, os tempos de resposta para ajustes da produção e a intensidade da resposta das empresas levam intrinsecamente ao surgimento de oscilações caóticas na oferta e na demanda. No modelo proposto, desenvolvido com o uso da metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas, as flutuações irregulares na demanda e nos preços estão intimamente relacionadas com a própria estrutura da cadeia, ou seja, com suas regras, políticas e capacidades produtivas. São feitas considerações sobre a importância do estudo de caos aplicado à economia e são discutidas técnicas para caracterização de comportamento caótico em séries econômicas.

          Translated abstract

          The purpose of this study was to present a simplified supply chain model where the relations between the number of competitors, the delay in production adjustments, and the intensity response of each company lead, intrinsically, to the emergence of chaotic oscillations in supply and demand. In the considered model, developed with the use of the System Dynamics methodology, the irregular fluctuations in demand and prices are closely related to the supply chain structure, that is, its rules, policies and capabilities. Discussions about the importance of the study of chaos applied to the economy are developed and specific techniques for characterization of chaotic behavior in economic time series are presented.

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          Most cited references 41

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          Quantitative universality for a class of nonlinear transformations

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            Roads to turbulence in dissipative dynamical systems

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              Chaotic attractors of an infinite-dimensional dynamical system

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                prod
                Production
                Prod.
                Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (São Paulo )
                1980-5411
                June 2013
                : 23
                : 2
                : 257-268
                Article
                S0103-65132013000200004
                10.1590/S0103-65132013000200004

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                Product
                Product Information: website
                Categories
                ENGINEERING, MANUFACTURING

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