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      Does the Predictive Value of Baseline Coronary Risk Factors Change over a 30-Year Follow-Up?

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          Abstract

          The association of baseline serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking and body mass index with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality was analyzed among 1,619 men aged 40-59 at baseline. Analyses were made separately for the first, second and third decade of follow-up. Serum cholesterol and smoking more than 9 cigarettes daily were strong predictors of risk of CHD death (n = 450) occurring early and late during the 30-year follow-up. After 20 years of follow-up, systolic blood pressure was no longer associated with CHD risk. In contrast, highest tertile of body mass index (over 24.7 kg/m<sup>2</sup>) was only then associated with increased CHD risk. The correlations between the baseline and the 30-year risk factor values were 0.42 for serum cholesterol (n = 444), 0.28 for systolic blood pressure (n = 444) and 0.57 for body mass index (n = 429). Our results showed large differences in the long-term predictive power of the classical coronary risk factors. The reasons for these differences are discussed.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          CRD
          Cardiology
          10.1159/issn.0008-6312
          Cardiology
          S. Karger AG
          978-3-8055-5790-0
          978-3-318-01585-0
          0008-6312
          1421-9751
          1993
          1993
          14 November 2008
          : 82
          : 2-3
          : 181-190
          Affiliations
          aDepartment of Environmental Epidemiology, National Public Health Institute, Kuopio, Finland; bDepartment of Community Health and General Practice, University of Kuopio, Finland; cPioppi, Italy
          Article
          175867 Cardiology 1993;82:181–190
          10.1159/000175867
          8324779
          © 1993 S. Karger AG, Basel

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          Page count
          Pages: 10
          Categories
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