Does the Predictive Value of Baseline Coronary Risk Factors Change over a 30-Year Follow-Up?

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Abstract

The association of baseline serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking and body mass index with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality was analyzed among 1,619 men aged 40-59 at baseline. Analyses were made separately for the first, second and third decade of follow-up. Serum cholesterol and smoking more than 9 cigarettes daily were strong predictors of risk of CHD death (n = 450) occurring early and late during the 30-year follow-up. After 20 years of follow-up, systolic blood pressure was no longer associated with CHD risk. In contrast, highest tertile of body mass index (over 24.7 kg/m<sup>2</sup>) was only then associated with increased CHD risk. The correlations between the baseline and the 30-year risk factor values were 0.42 for serum cholesterol (n = 444), 0.28 for systolic blood pressure (n = 444) and 0.57 for body mass index (n = 429). Our results showed large differences in the long-term predictive power of the classical coronary risk factors. The reasons for these differences are discussed.

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Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): CRD

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Cardiology

Journal ID (doi): 10.1159/issn.0008-6312

Title: Cardiology

Publisher: S. Karger AG

ISBN: 978-3-8055-5790-0

ISBN: 978-3-318-01585-0

ISSN (Print): 0008-6312

ISSN (Electronic): 1421-9751

Publication date Subscription-year: 1993

Publication date (Print): 1993

Publication date (Electronic): 14 November 2008

Volume: 82

Issue: 2-3

Pages: 181-190

Affiliations

^aDepartment of Environmental Epidemiology, National Public Health Institute, Kuopio, Finland; ^bDepartment of Community Health and General Practice, University of Kuopio, Finland; ^cPioppi, Italy

Article

Publisher ID: 175867 Other ID: Cardiology 1993;82:181–190

DOI: 10.1159/000175867

PubMed ID: 8324779

SO-VID: c9375509-b4b1-4f04-82c1-4482d6f8396f

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Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

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