Ching-Lung Cheung a , b , Seng Bin Ang c , d , Manoj Chadha e , f , Eddie Siu-Lun Chow b , g , Yoon-Sok Chung h , i , Fen Lee Hew j , k , Unnop Jaisamrarn l , m , Hou Ng n , o , Yasuhiro Takeuchi p , q , Chih-Hsing Wu r , s , Weibo Xia t , u , Julie Yu v , w , Saeko Fujiwara q , x , ∗
22 March 2018
Hip fracture is a major public health problem. Earlier studies projected that the total number of hip fracture will increase dramatically by 2050, and most of the hip fracture will occur in Asia. To date, only a few studies provided the updated projection, and none of them focused on the hip fracture projection in Asia. Thus, it is essential to provide the most up to date prediction of hip fracture in Asia, and to evaluate the total direct medical cost of hip fracture in Asia.
We provide the updated projection of hip fracture in 9 Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies members using the most updated incidence rate and projected population size.
We show that the number of hip fracture will increase from 1,124,060 in 2018 to 2,563,488 in 2050, a 2.28-fold increase. This increase is mainly due to the changes on the population demographics, especially in China and India, which have the largest population size. The direct cost of hip fracture will increase from 9.5 billion United State dollar (USD) in 2018 to 15 billion USD in 2050, resulting a 1.59-fold increase. A 2%–3% decrease in incidence rate of hip fracture annually is required to keep the total number of hip fracture constant over time.