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      Unifying models of dialect spread and extinction using surface tension dynamics

      research-article
      Royal Society Open Science
      The Royal Society Publishing
      dialects, social systems, coarsening

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          Abstract

          We provide a unified mathematical explanation of two classical forms of spatial linguistic spread. The wave model describes the radiation of linguistic change outwards from a central focus. Changes can also jump between population centres in a process known as hierarchical diffusion. It has recently been proposed that the spatial evolution of dialects can be understood using surface tension at linguistic boundaries. Here we show that the inclusion of long-range interactions in the surface tension model generates both wave-like spread, and hierarchical diffusion, and that it is surface tension that is the dominant effect in deciding the stable distribution of dialect patterns. We generalize the model to allow population mixing which can induce shrinkage of linguistic domains, or destroy dialect regions from within.

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          Most cited references47

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          Understanding individual human mobility patterns

          Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.
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            The scaling laws of human travel

            The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronise populations of interacting species, stabilise them, and diversify gene pools [1-3]. Human travelling, e.g. is responsible for the geographical spread of human infectious disease [4-9]. In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human mobility and an imminent influenza A epidemic [10] the knowledge of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is thus of fundamental importance. Despite its crucial role, a quantitative assessment of these properties on geographical scales remains elusive and the assumption that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. Here we report on a solid and quantitative assessment of human travelling statistics by analysing the circulation of bank notes in the United States. Based on a comprehensive dataset of over a million individual displacements we find that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale free random walks known as Levy flights. Secondly, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraically long tails which attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We show that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two parameter continuous time random walk model to a surprising accuracy and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent effectively superdiffusive process.
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              A universal model for mobility and migration patterns.

              Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume and inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of the phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                R Soc Open Sci
                R Soc Open Sci
                RSOS
                royopensci
                Royal Society Open Science
                The Royal Society Publishing
                2054-5703
                January 2018
                3 January 2018
                3 January 2018
                : 5
                : 1
                : 171446
                Affiliations
                Department of Mathematics, University of Portsmouth , Portsmouth, UK
                Author notes
                Author for correspondence: James Burridge e-mail: james.burridge@ 123456port.ac.uk
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6067-4187
                Article
                rsos171446
                10.1098/rsos.171446
                5792924
                29410847
                d10799f0-8c61-4b2b-a6ec-605df18261c2
                © 2018 The Authors.

                Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 26 September 2017
                : 23 November 2017
                Funding
                Funded by: Leverhulme Trust, http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275;
                Award ID: RF-2016-177
                Categories
                1009
                174
                1008
                6
                Physics
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                January, 2018

                dialects,social systems,coarsening
                dialects, social systems, coarsening

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