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Judgment under Uncertainty : Heuristics and Biases
Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
edited_book
Author(s):
Sarah Lichtenstein
,
Baruch Fischhoff
,
Lawrence D. Phillips
Editor(s):
Daniel Kahneman
,
Paul Slovic
,
Amos Tversky
Publication date
(Online):
2009
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
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Cascading Disasters
Author and book information
Book Chapter
Pages
: 306-334
DOI:
10.1017/CBO9780511809477.023
SO-VID:
d1ae7b71-5c8e-4c5e-a9d7-5c6bcb501fcc
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Book chapters
pp. xi
Preface
pp. 3
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
pp. 23
Belief in the law of small numbers
pp. 32
Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
pp. 48
On the psychology of prediction
pp. 69
Studies of representativeness
pp. 84
Judgments of and by representativeness
pp. 101
Popular induction: Information is not necessarily informative
pp. 117
Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty
pp. 129
Shortcomings in the attribution process: On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments
pp. 153
Evidential impact of base rates
pp. 163
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
pp. 179
Egocentric biases in availability and attribution
pp. 190
The availability bias in social perception and interaction
pp. 201
The simulation heuristic
pp. 211
Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments
pp. 231
The illusion of control
pp. 239
Test results are what you think they are
pp. 249
Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities
pp. 268
Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making
pp. 287
Overconfidence in case-study judgments
pp. 294
A progress report on the training of probability assessors
pp. 306
Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
pp. 335
For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight
pp. 355
Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice
pp. 359
Conservatism in human information processing
pp. 370
The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference
pp. 378
Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory
pp. 391
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
pp. 408
The vitality of mythical numbers
pp. 414
Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures
pp. 422
Debiasing
pp. 445
Improving inductive inference
pp. 463
Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk
pp. 493
On the study of statistical intuitions
pp. 509
Variants of uncertainty
pp. 521
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