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      Twenty-First-Century Projections of Snowfall and Winter Severity across Central-Eastern North America*,+

      Author(s): , , ,
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      Journal: Journal of Climate
      Publisher: American Meteorological Society

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          Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

          T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier (2005)
          All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.
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            Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

            Clara Deser, Adam Phillips, Vincent Bourdette … (2012)
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              The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.

              P. A. O'Gorman, T. SCHNEIDER (2009)
              Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Journal of Climate
                Abbreviated Title: J. Climate
                Publisher: American Meteorological Society
                ISSN (Print): 0894-8755
                ISSN (Electronic): 1520-0442
                Publication date Created: September 2014
                Publication date (Print): September 2014
                Volume: 27
                Issue: 17
                Pages: 6526-6550
                Article
                DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00520.1
                SO-VID: d5e8fb36-0eba-40cd-aa09-6a3a2031af29
                Copyright © © 2014
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