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      Effects on alcohol consumption of announcing and implementing revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines: findings from an interrupted time series analysis

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          Abstract

          Background

          In January 2016, the UK announced and began implementing revised guidelines for low-risk drinking of 14 units (112 g) per week for men and women. This was a reduction from the previous guidelines for men of 3–4 units (24–32 g) per day. There was no large-scale promotion of the revised guidelines beyond the initial media announcement. This paper evaluates the effect of announcing the revised guidelines on alcohol consumption among adults in England.

          Methods

          Data come from a monthly repeat cross-sectional survey of approximately 1700 adults living in private households in England collected between March 2014 and October 2017. The primary outcomes are change in level and time trend of participants’ Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test—Consumption (AUDIT-C) scores.

          Results

          In December 2015, the modelled average AUDIT-C score was 2.719 out of 12 and was decreasing by 0.003 each month. After January 2016, AUDIT-C scores increased immediately but non-significantly to 2.720 (β=0.001, CI −0.079 to 0.099) and the trend changed significantly such that scores subsequently increased by 0.005 each month (β=0.008, CI 0.001 to 0.015), equivalent to 0.5% of the population increasing their AUDIT-C score by 1 point each month. Secondary analyses indicated the change in trend began 7 months before the guideline announcement and that AUDIT-C scores reduced significantly but temporarily for 4 months after the announcement (β=−0.087, CI −0.167 to 0.007).

          Conclusions

          Announcing new UK drinking guidelines did not lead to a substantial or sustained reduction in drinking or a downturn in the long-term trend in alcohol consumption, but there was evidence of a temporary reduction in consumption.

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          Most cited references23

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          Use of mass media campaigns to change health behaviour.

          Mass media campaigns are widely used to expose high proportions of large populations to messages through routine uses of existing media, such as television, radio, and newspapers. Exposure to such messages is, therefore, generally passive. Such campaigns are frequently competing with factors, such as pervasive product marketing, powerful social norms, and behaviours driven by addiction or habit. In this Review we discuss the outcomes of mass media campaigns in the context of various health-risk behaviours (eg, use of tobacco, alcohol, and other drugs, heart disease risk factors, sex-related behaviours, road safety, cancer screening and prevention, child survival, and organ or blood donation). We conclude that mass media campaigns can produce positive changes or prevent negative changes in health-related behaviours across large populations. We assess what contributes to these outcomes, such as concurrent availability of required services and products, availability of community-based programmes, and policies that support behaviour change. Finally, we propose areas for improvement, such as investment in longer better-funded campaigns to achieve adequate population exposure to media messages. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            'The smoking toolkit study': a national study of smoking and smoking cessation in England

            Background Up-to-date data tracking of national smoking patterns and cessation-related behaviour is required to evaluate and inform tobacco control strategies. The Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) was designed for this role. This paper describes the methodology of the STS and examines as far as possible the representativeness of the samples. Methods The STS consists of monthly, cross sectional household interviews of adults aged 16 and over in England with smokers and recent ex-smokers in each monthly wave followed up by postal questionnaires three and six months later. Between November 2006 and December 2010 the baseline survey was completed by 90,568 participants. STS demographic, prevalence and cigarette consumption estimates are compared with those from the Health Survey for England (HSE) and the General Lifestyle Survey (GLF) for 2007-2009. Results Smoking prevalence estimates of all the surveys were similar from 2008 onwards (e.g 2008 STS = 22.0%, 95% C.I. = 21.4% to 22.6%, HSE = 21.7%, 95% C.I. = 20.9% to 22.6%, GLF = 20.8%, 95% C.I. = 19.7% to 21.9%), although there was heterogeneity in 2007 (chi-square = 50.30, p < 0.001). Some differences were observed across surveys within sociodemographic sub-groups, although largely in 2007. Cigarette consumption was virtually identical in all surveys and years. Conclusion There is reason to believe that the STS findings (see http://www.smokinginengland.info) are generalisable to the adult population of England.
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              Mass media interventions for smoking cessation in adults

              Mass media tobacco control campaigns can reach large numbers of people. Much of the literature is focused on the effects of tobacco control advertising on young people, but there are also a number of evaluations of campaigns targeting adult smokers, which show mixed results. Campaigns may be local, regional or national, and may be combined with other components of a comprehensive tobacco control policy. To assess the effectiveness of mass media interventions in reducing smoking among adults. The Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group search strategy was combined with additional searches for any studies that referred to tobacco/smoking cessation, mass media and adults. We also searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and a number of electronic databases. The last search was carried out in November 2016. Controlled trials allocating communities, regions or states to intervention or control conditions; interrupted time series. Adults, 25 years or older, who regularly smoke cigarettes. Studies which cover all adults as defined in studies were included. Mass media are defined here as channels of communication such as television, radio, newspapers, billboards, posters, leaflets or booklets intended to reach large numbers of people, and which are not dependent on person‐to‐person contact. The purpose of the mass media campaign must be primarily to encourage smokers to quit. They could be carried out alone or in conjunction with tobacco control programmes. The primary outcome was change in smoking behaviour. This could be reported as changes in prevalence, changes in cigarette consumption, quit rates, or odds of being a smoker. Two authors independently assessed all studies for inclusion criteria and for study quality (MB, LS, RTM). One author (MB) extracted data, and a second author (LS) checked them. Results were not pooled due to heterogeneity of the included studies and are presented narratively and in table form. Eleven campaigns met the inclusion criteria for this review. Studies differed in design, settings, duration, content and intensity of intervention, length of follow‐up, methods of evaluation and also in definitions and measures of smoking behaviour used. Among seven campaigns reporting smoking prevalence, significant decreases were observed in the California and Massachusetts statewide tobacco control campaigns compared with the rest of the USA. Some positive effects on prevalence in the whole population or in the subgroups were observed in three of the remaining seven studies. Three large‐scale campaigns of the seven presenting results for tobacco consumption found statistically significant decreases. Among the eight studies presenting abstinence or quit rates, four showed some positive effect, although in one of them the effect was measured for quitting and cutting down combined. Among the three that did not show significant decreases, one demonstrated a significant intervention effect on smokers and ex‐smokers combined. There is evidence that comprehensive tobacco control programmes which include mass media campaigns can be effective in changing smoking behaviour in adults, but the evidence comes from a heterogeneous group of studies of variable methodological quality. One state‐wide tobacco control programme (Massachusetts) showed positive results up to eight years after the campaign. Another (California) showed positive results during the period of adequate funding and implementation and in final evaluation since the beginning of the programme. Six of nine studies carried out in communities or regions showed some positive effects on smoking behaviour and at least one significant change in smoking prevalence (Sydney). The intensity and duration of mass media campaigns may influence effectiveness, but length of follow‐up and concurrent secular trends and events can make this difficult to quantify. No consistent relationship was observed between campaign effectiveness and age, education, ethnicity or gender. Background Mass media programmes involve communication through television, radio, newspapers, billboards, posters, leaflets or booklets, with the aims of encouraging smokers to quit, and maintaining abstinence in non‐smokers. It is difficult to establish their role in this process and they require strict methodological design. Review question To assess the effectiveness of mass media interventions in reducing smoking among adults. Study characteristics We searched up until 30th November 2016, and found 11 relevant studies for this review. The numbers of participants varied between the included studies. All of the studies involved adults, although some studies also included younger people (14+ or 15+). Campaigns involved TV, radio, print media and billboard advertising. Studies differed in setting, duration, content of the intervention, length of observation, measures of smoking behaviour and the way of showing results. Two campaigns reported definite decreases in smoking prevalence, and some positive effects were observed in another three. Three large‐scale campaigns reported lower tobacco consumption. Three studies showed some positive effect in abstinence or quit rates. One study did not show significant decreases but did demonstrate an effect of the intervention on smokers and ex‐smokers combined. Key results Tobacco control programmes that include mass media campaigns may change smoking behaviour in adults, but the evidence comes from studies of variable quality and scale and often occur in an environment where there are other influences on smoking, making it hard to isolate the effects of the media campaign itself. No consistent patterns by age, education, ethnicity or gender were found. Quality of the evidence There were problems with the design and conduct of all of the studies, which clouded the evidence. It would help if future studies could include comparator communities where there are no mass media interventions taking place to get a better estimate of the effect of the mass media campaign.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                J Epidemiol Community Health
                J Epidemiol Community Health
                jech
                jech
                Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                0143-005X
                1470-2738
                November 2020
                1 November 2020
                : 74
                : 11
                : 942-949
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentScHARR, University of Sheffield , Sheffield, UK
                [2 ]departmentDepartment of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London , London, UK
                [3 ]Cancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research center, University College London , London, UK
                [4 ]departmentSchool of Humanities and Social Science, University of Newcastle Medical Society , Newcastle, Australia
                Author notes
                Correspondence to John Holmes, School of Health and Related Research (Scharr), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK; john.holmes@ 123456sheffield.ac.uk
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9283-2151
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5637-5245
                Article
                jech-2020-213820
                10.1136/jech-2020-213820
                7576577
                32684524
                e1bf8a1a-4cb8-4b0e-83ca-9887ff4a28f9
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 30 January 2020
                : 21 April 2020
                : 06 June 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001921, Public Health Research Programme;
                Award ID: 15/63/01
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000858, University of Sheffield;
                Funded by: NIHR School for Public Health Research;
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000289, Cancer Research UK;
                Categories
                Original Research

                Public health
                alcohol,health promotion,outcome research evaluation,time-series,public health policy

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