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      Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on mumps incidence in Sichuan, China

      research-article
      Author(s): ,
      Publication date (Electronic):
      Journal: BMC Infectious Diseases
      Publisher: BioMed Central
      Keywords: COVID-19, Mumps, Mathematical model, Non-pharmaceutical interventions

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          Abstract

          Background

          A series of social and public health measures have been implemented to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We examined the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on mumps incidence as an agent to determine the potential reduction in other respiratory virus incidence.

          Methods

          We modelled mumps incidence per month in Sichuan using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, based on the reported number of mumps cases per month from 2017 to 2020.

          Results

          The epidemic peak of mumps in 2020 is lower than in the preceding years. Whenever compared with the projected cases or the average from corresponding periods in the preceding years (2017–2019), the reported cases in 2020 markedly declined ( P < 0.001). From January to December, the number of mumps cases was estimated to decrease by 36.3% (33.9–38.8%), 34.3% (31.1–37.8%), 68.9% (66.1–71.6%), 76.0% (73.9–77.9%), 67.0% (65.0–69.0%), 59.6% (57.6–61.6%), 61.1% (58.8–63.3%), 49.2% (46.4–52.1%), 24.4% (22.1–26.8%), 30.0% (27.5–32.6%), 42.1% (39.6–44.7%), 63.5% (61.2–65.8%), respectively. The total number of mumps cases in 2020 was estimated to decrease by 53.6% (52.9–54.3%).

          Conclusion

          Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 have had an effective impact on mumps incidence in Sichuan, China.

          Supplementary Information

          The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06584-9.

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          Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

          Qun Li, Xuhua Guan, Peng Wu … (2020)
          Abstract Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. Methods We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. Results Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). Conclusions On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
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            Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study

            Benjamin Cowling, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tiffany W Y Ng … (2020)
            Summary Background A range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. Methods We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R t) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20–23, Feb 11–14, and March 10–13, 2020. Findings COVID-19 transmissibility measured by R t has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34–53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated R t of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an R t of 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively. Interpretation Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020. Funding Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.
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              Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China

              Shengjie Lai, Nick Ruktanonchai, Liangcai Zhou … (2020)
              Summary On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic 1 . The outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective 2 , but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of NPIs and their timings 3 . Using epidemiological and anonymised human movement data 4,5 , here we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range 76,776 -164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020. Without NPIs, the COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (interquartile range 44 - 94) by February 29, 2020, with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to have prevented more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but combined NPIs achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. The lifting of travel restrictions since February 17, 2020 does not appear to lead to an increase in cases across China if the social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of 25% reduction on average through late April. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of NPIs on COVID-19 and to inform response efforts across the World.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Rongsheng Luan: luan_rs@scu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): BMC Infect Dis
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): BMC Infect Dis
                Title: BMC Infectious Diseases
                Publisher: BioMed Central (London )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1471-2334
                Publication date (Electronic): 30 August 2021
                Publication date PMC-release: 30 August 2021
                Publication date Collection: 2021
                Volume: 21
                Electronic Location Identifier: 886
                Affiliations
                GRID grid.13291.38, ISNI 0000 0001 0807 1581, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, , West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China
                Article
                Publisher ID: 6584
                DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06584-9
                PMC ID: 8404184
                PubMed ID: 34461845
                SO-VID: e5fa8cb9-7566-42cc-b25c-71976483e65a
                Copyright © © The Author(s) 2021
                License:

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                History
                Date received : 24 February 2021
                Date accepted : 17 August 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: Chengdu Science and Technology Bureau
                Award ID: 2020-YF05-00037-SN
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: sichuan medical science and technology project
                Award ID: 21ZDCX003
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Custom metadata
                issue-copyright-statement © The Author(s) 2021

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Infectious disease & Microbiology
                Keywords: covid-19,mumps,mathematical model,non-pharmaceutical interventions
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Infectious disease & Microbiology
                Keywords: covid-19, mumps, mathematical model, non-pharmaceutical interventions

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