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      Modelling palliative and end-of-life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          The WHO estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 1.3 million deaths (1 377 395) globally (as of November 2020). This surge in death necessitates identification of resource needs and relies on modelling resource and understanding anticipated surges in demand. Our aim was to develop a generic computer model that could estimate resources required for end-of-life (EoL) care delivery during the pandemic.

          Setting

          A discrete event simulation model was developed and used to estimate resourcing needs for a geographical area in the South West of England. While our analysis focused on the UK setting, the model is flexible to changes in demand and setting.

          Participants

          We used the model to estimate resourcing needs for a population of around 1 million people.

          Primary and secondary outcome measures

          The model predicts the per-day ‘staff’ and ‘stuff’ resourcing required to meet a given level of incoming EoL care activity.

          Results

          A mean of 11.97 hours of additional community nurse time, up to 33 hours of care assistant time and up to 30 hours additional care from care assistant night sits will be required per day as a result of out of hospital COVID-19 deaths based on the model prediction. Specialist palliative care demand is predicted to increase up to 19 hours per day. An additional 286 anticipatory medicine bundles per month will be necessary to alleviate physical symptoms at the EoL care for patients with COVID-19: an average additional 10.21 bundles of anticipatory medication per day. An average additional 9.35 syringe pumps could be needed to be in use per day.

          Conclusions

          The analysis for a large region in the South West of England shows the significant additional physical and human resource required to relieve suffering at the EoL as part of a pandemic response.

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          Most cited references20

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          Alleviating the access abyss in palliative care and pain relief—an imperative of universal health coverage: the Lancet Commission report

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            Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home palliative care services for adults with advanced illness and their caregivers

            Background Extensive evidence shows that well over 50% of people prefer to be cared for and to die at home provided circumstances allow choice. Despite best efforts and policies, one-third or less of all deaths take place at home in many countries of the world. Objectives 1. To quantify the effect of home palliative care services for adult patients with advanced illness and their family caregivers on patients' odds of dying at home; 2. to examine the clinical effectiveness of home palliative care services on other outcomes for patients and their caregivers such as symptom control, quality of life, caregiver distress and satisfaction with care; 3. to compare the resource use and costs associated with these services; 4. to critically appraise and summarise the current evidence on cost-effectiveness. Search methods We searched 12 electronic databases up to November 2012. We checked the reference lists of all included studies, 49 relevant systematic reviews, four key textbooks and recent conference abstracts. We contacted 17 experts and researchers for unpublished data. Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series (ITSs) evaluating the impact of home palliative care services on outcomes for adults with advanced illness or their family caregivers, or both. Data collection and analysis One review author assessed the identified titles and abstracts. Two independent reviewers performed assessment of all potentially relevant studies, data extraction and assessment of methodological quality. We carried out meta-analysis where appropriate and calculated numbers needed to treat to benefit (NNTBs) for the primary outcome (death at home). Main results We identified 23 studies (16 RCTs, 6 of high quality), including 37,561 participants and 4042 family caregivers, largely with advanced cancer but also congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), HIV/AIDS and multiple sclerosis (MS), among other conditions. Meta-analysis showed increased odds of dying at home (odds ratio (OR) 2.21, 95% CI 1.31 to 3.71; Z = 2.98, P value = 0.003; Chi2 = 20.57, degrees of freedom (df) = 6, P value = 0.002; I2 = 71%; NNTB 5, 95% CI 3 to 14 (seven trials with 1222 participants, three of high quality)). In addition, narrative synthesis showed evidence of small but statistically significant beneficial effects of home palliative care services compared to usual care on reducing symptom burden for patients (three trials, two of high quality, and one CBA with 2107 participants) and of no effect on caregiver grief (three RCTs, two of high quality, and one CBA with 2113 caregivers). Evidence on cost-effectiveness (six studies) is inconclusive. Authors' conclusions The results provide clear and reliable evidence that home palliative care increases the chance of dying at home and reduces symptom burden in particular for patients with cancer, without impacting on caregiver grief. This justifies providing home palliative care for patients who wish to die at home. More work is needed to study cost-effectiveness especially for people with non-malignant conditions, assessing place of death and appropriate outcomes that are sensitive to change and valid in these populations, and to compare different models of home palliative care, in powered studies. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home-based palliative care services for adults with advanced illness and their caregivers When faced with the prospect of dying with an advanced illness, the majority of people prefer to die at home, yet in many countries around the world they are most likely to die in hospital. We reviewed all known studies that evaluated home palliative care services, i.e. experienced home care teams of health professionals specialised in the control of a wide range of problems associated with advanced illness – physical, psychological, social, spiritual. We wanted to see how much of a difference these services make to people's chances of dying at home, but also to other important aspects for patients towards the end of life, such as symptoms (e.g. pain) and family distress. We also compared the impact on the costs with care. On the basis of 23 studies including 37,561 patients and 4042 family caregivers, we found that when someone with an advanced illness gets home palliative care, their chances of dying at home more than double. Home palliative care services also help reduce the symptom burden people may experience as a result of advanced illness, without increasing grief for family caregivers after the patient dies. In these circumstances, patients who wish to die at home should be offered home palliative care. There is still scope to improve home palliative care services and increase the benefits for patients and families without raising costs.
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              Generalist plus specialist palliative care--creating a more sustainable model.

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2021
                25 May 2021
                : 11
                : 5
                : e043795
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentNIHR Applied Research Collaboration for the South West Peninsula (PenARC) , University of Exeter Medical School , Exeter, UK
                [2 ]departmentDepartment of Supportive and Palliative Care , University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust , Bristol, Bristol, UK
                [3 ]departmentDepartment of Neuro Rehabilitation , North Bristol NHS Trust , Westbury on Trym, Bristol, UK
                [4 ]Sirona Care and Health CIC , Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, UK
                [5 ]departmentDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy , London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London, UK
                [6 ]departmentInstitute of Cancer Policy , King’s College London , London, UK
                [7 ]departmentDepartment of Population Health Sciences , University of Bristol , Bristol, UK
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Daniel Chalk; d.chalk@ 123456exeter.ac.uk
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4165-4364
                Article
                bmjopen-2020-043795
                10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043795
                8154294
                34035095
                e82d064f-e90f-4eca-9c4e-9e712c4124d2
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 02 September 2020
                : 17 December 2020
                : 05 May 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000272, National Institute for Health Research;
                Categories
                Palliative Care
                1506
                2474
                1720
                Original research
                Custom metadata
                unlocked

                Medicine
                palliative care,adult palliative care,covid-19
                Medicine
                palliative care, adult palliative care, covid-19

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