Modelling and simulation of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) time course and dropout hazard in placebo arms of schizophrenia clinical trials.

Abstract

The likelihood of detecting a therapeutic signal of an effective drug for schizophrenia is impeded by a high placebo effect and by high dropout of patients. Several unsuccessful trials of schizophrenia, at least partly due to highly variable placebo effects, have indicated the necessity for a robust methodology to evaluate such a placebo effect and reasons for dropout. Hence, the objectives of this analysis were to (i) develop a longitudinal placebo model that accounts for dropouts and predictors of the placebo effect, using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) score; (ii) compare the performance of empirical and semi-mechanistic placebo models; and (iii) compare different time-to-event (TTE) dropout modelling approaches used to account for dropouts.