Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) during wintertime: a case study

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Abstract

Abstract. In the present study, a persistent heavy haze episode from 13 to 20 January 2014 in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) is simulated using the WRF-CHEM model through ensemble simulations to investigate impacts of meteorological uncertainties on the haze formation. Model results show that uncertainties in meteorological conditions substantially influence the aerosol constituent simulations at an observation site in Beijing, and the ratio of the ensemble spread to the ensemble mean (RESM) exceeds 50%. The ensemble mean generally preforms well in reproducing the fine particles' (PM2.5) temporal variations and spatial distributions against measurements in BTH. The meteorological uncertainties do not alter the PM2.5 distribution pattern in BTH principally or dominate the haze formation and development, but remarkably affect the simulated PM2.5 level, and the RESM for the simulated PM2.5 concentrations can be up to 30% at the regional scale. In addition, the rather large RESM in PM2.5 simulations at the city scale also causes difficulties in evaluation of the control strategies. Therefore, our results suggest that the ensemble simulation is imperative to take into account the impact of the meteorological uncertainties on the haze prediction.

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Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part I: Model Implementation and Sensitivity

Fei Wen Chen, Jimy Dudhia, Robert Aune (2001)

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Elucidating severe urban haze formation in China.

Song Guo, Min Hu, Misti L. Zamora … (2014)

As the world's second largest economy, China has experienced severe haze pollution, with fine particulate matter (PM) recently reaching unprecedentedly high levels across many cities, and an understanding of the PM formation mechanism is critical in the development of efficient mediation policies to minimize its regional to global impacts. We demonstrate a periodic cycle of PM episodes in Beijing that is governed by meteorological conditions and characterized by two distinct aerosol formation processes of nucleation and growth, but with a small contribution from primary emissions and regional transport of particles. Nucleation consistently precedes a polluted period, producing a high number concentration of nano-sized particles under clean conditions. Accumulation of the particle mass concentration exceeding several hundred micrograms per cubic meter is accompanied by a continuous size growth from the nucleation-mode particles over multiple days to yield numerous larger particles, distinctive from the aerosol formation typically observed in other regions worldwide. The particle compositions in Beijing, on the other hand, exhibit a similarity to those commonly measured in many global areas, consistent with the chemical constituents dominated by secondary aerosol formation. Our results highlight that regulatory controls of gaseous emissions for volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides from local transportation and sulfur dioxide from regional industrial sources represent the key steps to reduce the urban PM level in China.