Risk of ESRD in prior living kidney donors

Epidemiologic studies commonly estimate associations between predictors (risk factors) and outcome. Most software automatically exclude subjects with missing values. This commonly causes bias because missing values seldom occur completely at random (MCAR) but rather selectively based on other (observed) variables, missing at random (MAR). Multiple imputation (MI) of missing predictor values using all observed information including outcome is advocated to deal with selective missing values. This seems a self-fulfilling prophecy. We tested this hypothesis using data from a study on diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. We selected five predictors of pulmonary embolism without missing values. Their regression coefficients and standard errors (SEs) estimated from the original sample were considered as "true" values. We assigned missing values to these predictors--both MCAR and MAR--and repeated this 1,000 times using simulations. Per simulation we multiple imputed the missing values without and with the outcome, and compared the regression coefficients and SEs to the truth. Regression coefficients based on MI including outcome were close to the truth. MI without outcome yielded very biased--underestimated--coefficients. SEs and coverage of the 90% confidence intervals were not different between MI with and without outcome. Results were the same for MCAR and MAR. For all types of missing values, imputation of missing predictor values using the outcome is preferred over imputation without outcome and is no self-fulfilling prophecy.

Although case-control studies suggest that African Americans with common coding variants in the APOL1 gene are 5-29 times more likely than those individuals without such variants to have focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, HIV-associated nephropathy, or ESRD, prospective studies have not yet evaluated the impact of these variants on CKD in a community-based sample of African Americans. Here, we studied whether the APOL1 G1 and G2 risk alleles associate with the development of CKD and progression to ESRD by analyzing data from 3067 African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who did not have CKD at baseline. Carrying two risk alleles associated with a 1.49-fold increased risk of CKD (95% CI=1.02 to 2.17) and a 1.88-fold increased risk of ESRD (95% CI=1.20 to 2.93) compared with zero or one risk allele; associations persisted after adjusting for European ancestry. Among participants who developed CKD, those participants with two risk alleles were more likely to progress to ESRD than their counterparts with zero or one risk allele (HR=2.22, 95% CI=1.01 to 4.84). In conclusion, APOL1 risk variants are risk factors for the development of CKD and progression from CKD to ESRD among African Americans in the general population.

Case-control studies suggest that African Americans with genetic variants in both copies of APOL1 have increased risk for hypertension-attributable ESRD and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Here, we tested these risk variants in the Dallas Heart Study to ascertain the prevalence of APOL1-associated renal disease in a large population-based study and to estimate the contribution of APOL1 risk variants to disparities in renal disease. We determined the genotype of 1825 African Americans and 1042 European Americans. Among participants without diabetes, we identified microalbuminuria in 2.3% of European Americans, 6.0% of African Americans with no or one APOL1 risk allele, and 16.5% of African Americans with two risk alleles. In addition, the proportions of participants with estimated GFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) was 1.5% for nondiabetic European Americans, 1.7% for African Americans with no or one APOL1 risk allele, and 6.7% for African Americans with two risk alleles. The APOL1 genotype did not associate with any differences in rates of CKD for study participants with diabetes. Our data suggest that more than 3 million African Americans likely have the high-risk genotype and are at markedly increased risk for nondiabetic CKD. In contrast, African Americans without the risk genotype and European Americans appear to have similar risk for developing nondiabetic CKD.