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      Determinants of Fertility Rate: a regression analysis case of Tunisia


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      Tunisia, Fertility Rates, Determinants, Regression Analysis, socioeconomics, Political Stability

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          The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinant of the Tunisian fertility rates over the time period from 1960 to 2015. A Multivariate regression model has been used on various socioeconomic variables using a data base collected from World Bank (2015). The result has confirmed the previous output of the literature concerning the negative relationship of Education, Economic Growth, and Urbanization to fertility rates. The new results was that female Employment and Political Stability could also affect the fertility rates negatively. The Male employment variable had a positive relationship with the dependent one. Although many other factors were influencing the lowering rates over time in Tunisia, the main reason for a decrease in fertility rates defined by this paper is the development of the education system after the independence. Expanding womens rights in term of education and employment, the urbanization factor and going from rural to modern women, also had a negative impact on the rates over time, as well as the inclusion of female labor force into the economy. All these significant factors have made Tunisia an exception in the Arab countries that have implemented a policy and tools to birth control. This demographic change resulting in smaller family size might also be one of the indirect reasons that conducted the country to be the first nation starting the Arab Spring through the revolution of January 2011.

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          ScienceOpen Preprints
          31 May 2020
          [1 ] Master of Science MSc

          This work has been published open access under Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0 , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Conditions, terms of use and publishing policy can be found at .

          The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

          Statistics, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Economics

          Tunisia, Fertility Rates, Determinants, Political Stability, Regression Analysis, socioeconomics


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