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Determinants of Fertility Rate: a regression analysis case of Tunisia
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Abstract
The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinant of the Tunisian fertility rates over the time period from 1960 to 2015. A Multivariate regression model has been used on various socioeconomic variables using a data base collected from World Bank (2015). The result has confirmed the previous output of the literature concerning the negative relationship of Education, Economic Growth, and Urbanization to fertility rates. The new results was that female Employment and Political Stability could also affect the fertility rates negatively. The Male employment variable had a positive relationship with the dependent one. Although many other factors were influencing the lowering rates over time in Tunisia, the main reason for a decrease in fertility rates defined by this paper is the development of the education system after the independence. Expanding womens rights in term of education and employment, the urbanization factor and going from rural to modern women, also had a negative impact on the rates over time, as well as the inclusion of female labor force into the economy. All these significant factors have made Tunisia an exception in the Arab countries that have implemented a policy and tools to birth control. This demographic change resulting in smaller family size might also be one of the indirect reasons that conducted the country to be the first nation starting the Arab Spring through the revolution of January 2011.
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