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      Data Visualization in Society 

      Rain on your radar : Engaging with weather data visualizations as part of everyday routines

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          Abstract

          This chapter discusses visualizations of weather data, used to communicate short-term precipitation predictions to lay audiences. Focusing on the example of Buienradar, a popular Dutch weather forecast website and app, it investigates how people engage with such representations on a daily basis, how they interpret them, and how their readings of them affect their actions and decisions, shaping their day-to-day routines. The research is based on semi-structured interviews with users with different demographic profiles. Aside from establishing usage patterns or preferences and readerly strategies, the chapter also considers people’s own evaluations of their conduct in relation to the Buienradar service, and more broadly, their reflections on the significance of weather data visualizations to their lives.

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          "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?

          The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.
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            Big Data from the bottom up

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              300 Billion Served

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                Author and book information

                Contributors
                Book Chapter
                April 16 2020
                : 77-94
                Affiliations
                [1 ] the University of Amsterdam
                [2 ] Utrecht University
                10.5117/9789463722902_ch05
                5a478aea-bfe3-4036-8716-220e48fbd1ef
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