Prevention and control of Zika fever as a mosquito-borne and sexually
  transmitted disease

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Abstract

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic poses a major global public health emergency. It is known that ZIKV is spread by \textit{Aedes} mosquitoes, recent studies show that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact and cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV have been confirmed in the U.S., France, and Italy. How sexual transmission affects the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We presented a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on spread and control of ZIKV and used the model to fit the ZIKV data in Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Based on the estimated parameter values, we calculated the median and confidence interval of the basic reproduction number R0=2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the distribution of the percentage of contribution by sexual transmission is 3.044 (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our study indicates that R0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. In order to prevent and control the transmission of ZIKV, it must be treated as not only a mosquito-borne disease but also a sexually transmitted disease.

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Most cited references 13

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Zika virus: a report on three cases of human infection during an epidemic of jaundice in Nigeria.

F.N MacNamara (1954)

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Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems.

E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, A. A. King (2006)

Nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems are widely used to model systems across the sciences and engineering. Such models are natural to formulate and can be analyzed mathematically and numerically. However, difficulties associated with inference from time-series data about unknown parameters in these models have been a constraint on their application. We present a new method that makes maximum likelihood estimation feasible for partially-observed nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems (also known as state-space models) where this was not previously the case. The method is based on a sequence of filtering operations which are shown to converge to a maximum likelihood parameter estimate. We make use of recent advances in nonlinear filtering in the implementation of the algorithm. We apply the method to the study of cholera in Bangladesh. We construct confidence intervals, perform residual analysis, and apply other diagnostics. Our analysis, based upon a model capturing the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the system, reveals some effects overlooked by previous studies.

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Transmission of Zika Virus Through Sexual Contact with Travelers to Areas of Ongoing Transmission - Continental United States, 2016.

Susan Hills, Kate Russell, Morgan Hennessey … (2016)

Zika virus is a flavivirus closely related to dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever viruses. Although spread is primarily by Aedes species mosquitoes, two instances of sexual transmission of Zika virus have been reported, and replicative virus has been isolated from semen of one man with hematospermia. On February 5, 2016, CDC published recommendations for preventing sexual transmission of Zika virus. Updated prevention guidelines were published on February 23. During February 6-22, 2016, CDC received reports of 14 instances of suspected sexual transmission of Zika virus. Among these, two laboratory-confirmed cases and four probable cases of Zika virus disease have been identified among women whose only known risk factor was sexual contact with a symptomatic male partner with recent travel to an area with ongoing Zika virus transmission. Two instances have been excluded based on additional information, and six others are still under investigation. State, territorial, and local public health departments, clinicians, and the public should be aware of current recommendations for preventing sexual transmission of Zika virus, particularly to pregnant women. Men who reside in or have traveled to an area of ongoing Zika virus transmission and have a pregnant partner should abstain from sexual activity or consistently and correctly use condoms during sex with their pregnant partner for the duration of the pregnancy.