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      Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

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      The Lancet Neurology
      Elsevier BV

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          Abstract

          Summary Background Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. Methods We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. Findings In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (−39·3 to −33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (−37·2 to −31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (−10·7 to −5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. Interpretation Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

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          Cerebrovascular disease in the community: results of a WHO collaborative study.

          In a cooperative study coordinated by WHO, stroke was registered between 1971 and 1974 in 17 centres both in developing and developed countries. A common operating protocol was used to obtain comparable data. Age-adjusted incidence of stroke shows moderate geographical variations, cerebrovascular accidents being common in all the contrasting populations studied in various parts of the world. Data were also obtained on the types of management of stroke patients, their survival rates, and functional prognosis. Control of hypertension, although known to be effective in the prevention of stroke, seemed to be insufficient in most countries. It is concluded that stroke registers may be used as a source of information for the planning and implementation of stroke control programmes in the community.
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            Global stroke statistics.

            Background Up to date data on incidence, mortality, and case-fatality for stroke are important for setting the agenda for prevention and healthcare. Aims and/or hypothesis We aim to update the most current incidence and mortality data on stroke available by country, and to expand the scope to case-fatality and explore how registry data might be complementary. Methods Data were compiled using two approaches: (1) an updated literature review building from our previous review and (2) direct acquisition and analysis of stroke events in the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for each country providing these data. To assess new and/or updated data on incidence, we searched multiple databases to identify new original papers and review articles that met ideal criteria for stroke incidence studies and were published between 15 May 2013 and 31 May 2016. For data on case-fatality, we searched between 1980 and 31 May 2016. We further screened reference lists and citation history of papers to identify other studies not obtained from these sources. Mortality codes for ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 were extracted. Using population denominators provided for each country, we calculated both the crude mortality from stroke and mortality adjusted to the WHO world population. We used only the most recent year reported to the WHO for which both population and mortality data were available. Results Fifty-one countries had data on stroke incidence, some with data over many time periods, and some with data in more than one region. Since our last review, there were new incidence studies from 12 countries, with four meeting pre-determined quality criteria. In these four studies, the incidence of stroke, adjusted to the WHO World standard population, ranged from 76 per 100,000 population per year in Australia (2009-10) up to 119 per 100,000 population per year in New Zealand (2011-12), with the latter being in those aged at least 15 years. Only in Martinique (2011-12) was the incidence of stroke greater in women than men. In countries either lacking or with old data on stroke incidence, eight had national clinical registries of hospital based data. Of the 128 countries reporting mortality data to the WHO, crude mortality was greatest in Kazhakstan (in 2003), Bulgaria, and Greece. Crude mortality and crude incidence of stroke were both positively correlated with the proportion of the population aged ≥ 65 years, but not with time. Data on case-fatality were available in 42 studies in 22 countries, with large variations between regions. Conclusions In this updated review, we describe the current data on stroke incidence, case-fatality and mortality in different countries, and highlight the growing trend for national clinical registries to provide estimates in lieu of community-based incidence studies.
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              General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease: Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis

              Objectives To quantify the benefits and harms of general health checks in adults with an emphasis on patient-relevant outcomes such as morbidity and mortality rather than on surrogate outcomes. Design Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials. For mortality, we analysed the results with random effects meta-analysis, and for other outcomes we did a qualitative synthesis as meta-analysis was not feasible. Data sources Medline, EMBASE, Healthstar, Cochrane Library, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, EPOC register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO ICTRP, supplemented by manual searches of reference lists of included studies, citation tracking (Web of Knowledge), and contacts with trialists. Selection criteria Randomised trials comparing health checks with no health checks in adult populations unselected for disease or risk factors. Health checks defined as screening general populations for more than one disease or risk factor in more than one organ system. We did not include geriatric trials. Data extraction Two observers independently assessed eligibility, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. We contacted authors for additional outcomes or trial details when necessary. Results We identified 16 trials, 14 of which had available outcome data (182 880 participants). Nine trials provided data on total mortality (11 940 deaths), and they gave a risk ratio of 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.03). Eight trials provided data on cardiovascular mortality (4567 deaths), risk ratio 1.03 (0.91 to 1.17), and eight on cancer mortality (3663 deaths), risk ratio 1.01 (0.92 to 1.12). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses did not alter these findings. We did not find beneficial effects of general health checks on morbidity, hospitalisation, disability, worry, additional physician visits, or absence from work, but not all trials reported on these outcomes. One trial found that health checks led to a 20% increase in the total number of new diagnoses per participant over six years compared with the control group and an increased number of people with self reported chronic conditions, and one trial found an increased prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia. Two out of four trials found an increased use of antihypertensives. Two out of four trials found small beneficial effects on self reported health, which could be due to bias. Conclusions General health checks did not reduce morbidity or mortality, neither overall nor for cardiovascular or cancer causes, although they increased the number of new diagnoses. Important harmful outcomes were often not studied or reported. Systematic review registration Cochrane Library, doi:10.1002/14651858.CD009009.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                The Lancet Neurology
                The Lancet Neurology
                Elsevier BV
                14744422
                March 2019
                March 2019
                Article
                10.1016/S1474-4422(19)30034-1
                b94aa9f0-4536-4dfa-9210-7b17bd537e44
                © 2019

                https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


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