Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries.

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Abstract

This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.

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Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

Nanshan Chen, Min Zhou, Xuan Dong … (2022)

Summary Background In December, 2019, a pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China. We aimed to further clarify the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. Methods In this retrospective, single-centre study, we included all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020. Cases were confirmed by real-time RT-PCR and were analysed for epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and radiological features and laboratory data. Outcomes were followed up until Jan 25, 2020. Findings Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure. Interpretation The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection. Funding National Key R&D Program of China.

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A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Thomas G Ksiazek, Dean Erdman, Cynthia Goldsmith … (2003)

A worldwide outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been associated with exposures originating from a single ill health care worker from Guangdong Province, China. We conducted studies to identify the etiologic agent of this outbreak. We received clinical specimens from patients in seven countries and tested them, using virus-isolation techniques, electron-microscopical and histologic studies, and molecular and serologic assays, in an attempt to identify a wide range of potential pathogens. None of the previously described respiratory pathogens were consistently identified. However, a novel coronavirus was isolated from patients who met the case definition of SARS. Cytopathological features were noted in Vero E6 cells inoculated with a throat-swab specimen. Electron-microscopical examination revealed ultrastructural features characteristic of coronaviruses. Immunohistochemical and immunofluorescence staining revealed reactivity with group I coronavirus polyclonal antibodies. Consensus coronavirus primers designed to amplify a fragment of the polymerase gene by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were used to obtain a sequence that clearly identified the isolate as a unique coronavirus only distantly related to previously sequenced coronaviruses. With specific diagnostic RT-PCR primers we identified several identical nucleotide sequences in 12 patients from several locations, a finding consistent with a point-source outbreak. Indirect fluorescence antibody tests and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays made with the new isolate have been used to demonstrate a virus-specific serologic response. This virus may never before have circulated in the U.S. population. A novel coronavirus is associated with this outbreak, and the evidence indicates that this virus has an etiologic role in SARS. Because of the death of Dr. Carlo Urbani, we propose that our first isolate be named the Urbani strain of SARS-associated coronavirus. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society

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Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing

Sijia Tian, Nan Hu, Jing Lou … (2020)

Background Since the first case of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China, a series of confirmed cases of the COVID-19 were found in Beijing. We analyzed the data of 262 confirmed cases to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Beijing. Methods We collected patients who were transferred by Beijing Emergency Medical Service to the designated hospitals. The information on demographic, epidemiological, clinical, laboratory test for the COVID-19 virus, diagnostic classification, cluster case and outcome were obtained. Furthermore we compared the characteristics between severe and common confirmed cases which including mild cases, no-pneumonia cases and asymptomatic cases, and we also compared the features between COVID-19 and 2003 SARS. Findings By Feb 10, 2020, 262 patients were transferred from the hospitals across Beijing to the designated hospitals for special treatment of the COVID-19 infected by Beijing emergency medical service. Among of 262 patients, 46 (17.6%) were severe cases, 216 (82.4%) were common cases, which including 192 (73.3%) mild cases, 11(4.2%) non-pneumonia cases and 13 (5.0%) asymptomatic cases respectively. The median age of patients was 47.5 years old and 48.5% were male. 192 (73.3%) patients were residents of Beijing, 50 (26.0%) of which had been to Wuhan, 116 (60.4%) had close contact with confirmed cases, 21 (10.9%) had no contact history. The most common symptoms at the onset of illness were fever (82.1%), cough (45.8%), fatigue (26.3%), dyspnea (6.9%) and headache (6.5%). The median incubation period was 6.7 days, the interval time from between illness onset and seeing a doctor was 4.5 days. As of Feb 10, 17.2% patients have discharged and 81.7% patients remain in hospital in our study, the fatality of COVID-19 infection in Beijing was 0.9%. Interpretation On the basis of this study, we provided the ratio of the COVID-19 infection on the severe cases to the mild, asymptomatic and non-pneumonia cases in Beijing. Population was generally susceptible, and with a relatively low fatality rate. The measures to prevent transmission was very successful at early stage, the next steps on the COVID-19 infection should be focused on early isolation of patients and quarantine for close contacts in families and communities in Beijing. Funding Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and Ministry of Science and Technology.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Healthcare (Basel)

Title: Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)

Publisher: MDPI AG

ISSN: 2227-9032

ISSN (Print): 2227-9032

Publication date (Electronic): Apr 15 2020

Volume: 8

Issue: 2

Affiliations

[1 ] Department of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nürnberg, Germany.

Article

Publisher Item ID: healthcare8020099

DOI: 10.3390/healthcare8020099

PMC ID: 7349853

PubMed ID: 32326512

SO-VID: 97714eae-832f-40ac-8eb0-55247615dd41

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Keywords: dynamic time warping,epidemiology,forecasting,incidence,lead-lag effects,risk management,COVID-19,Coronavirus,control strategies

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Keywords: dynamic time warping, epidemiology, forecasting, incidence, lead-lag effects, risk management, COVID-19, Coronavirus, control strategies

Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries.

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Novel Coronavirus Disease COVID-19

Most cited references 82

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing

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