Optimizing antithymocyte globulin dosing in haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation: long-term follow-up of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial

A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks. Despite this, it is not uncommon to see the complement of the Kaplan-Meier estimate used in this setting and interpreted as the probability of failure. If one desires an estimate that can be interpreted in this way, however, the cumulative incidence estimate is the appropriate tool to use in such situations. We believe the more commonly seen representations of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the cumulative incidence estimate do not lend themselves to easy explanation and understanding of this interpretation. We present, therefore, a representation of each estimate in a manner not ordinarily seen, each representation utilizing the concept of censored observations being 'redistributed to the right.' We feel these allow a more intuitive understanding of each estimate and therefore an appreciation of why the Kaplan-Meier method is inappropriate for estimation purposes in the presence of competing risks, while the cumulative incidence estimate is appropriate.

We previously reported that the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was useful for predicting outcomes in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, the sample size of patients with scores of 1 or more, captured by the CCI, did not exceed 35%. Further, some comorbidities were rarely found among patients who underwent HCT. Therefore, the current study was designed to (1) better define previously identified comorbidities using pretransplant laboratory data, (2) investigate additional HCT-related comorbidities, and (3) establish comorbidity scores that were suited for HCT. Data were collected from 1055 patients, and then randomly divided into training and validation sets. Weights were assigned to individual comorbidities according to their prognostic significance in Cox proportional hazard models. The new index was then validated. The new index proved to be more sensitive than the CCI since it captured 62% of patients with scores more than 0 compared with 12%, respectively. Further, the new index showed better survival prediction than the CCI (likelihood ratio of 23.7 versus 7.1 and c statistics of 0.661 versus 0.561, respectively, P < .001). In conclusion, the new simple index provided valid and reliable scoring of pretransplant comorbidities that predicted nonrelapse mortality and survival. This index will be useful for clinical trials and patient counseling before HCT.

This consensus document is intended to serve 3 functions. First, it standardizes the criteria for diagnosis of chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Second, it proposes a new clinical scoring system (0-3) that describes the extent and severity of chronic GVHD for each organ or site at any given time, taking functional impact into account. Third, it proposes new guidelines for global assessment of chronic GVHD severity that are based on the number of organs or sites involved and the degree of involvement in affected organs (mild, moderate, or severe). Diagnosis of chronic GVHD requires the presence of at least 1 diagnostic clinical sign of chronic GVHD (e.g., poikiloderma or esophageal web) or the presence of at least 1 distinctive manifestation (e.g., keratoconjunctivitis sicca) confirmed by pertinent biopsy or other relevant tests (e.g., Schirmer test) in the same or another organ. Furthermore, other possible diagnoses for clinical symptoms must be excluded. No time limit is set for the diagnosis of chronic GVHD. The Working Group recognized 2 main categories of GVHD, each with 2 subcategories. The acute GVHD category is defined in the absence of diagnostic or distinctive features of chronic GVHD and includes (1) classic acute GVHD occurring within 100 days after transplantation and (2) persistent, recurrent, or late acute GVHD (features of acute GVHD occurring beyond 100 days, often during withdrawal of immune suppression). The broad category of chronic GVHD includes (1) classic chronic GVHD (without features or characteristics of acute GVHD) and (2) an overlap syndrome in which diagnostic or distinctive features of chronic GVHD and acute GVHD appear together. It is currently recommended that systemic therapy be considered for patients who meet criteria for chronic GVHD of moderate to severe global severity.