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      Prediction of dengue annual incidence using seasonal climate variability in Bangladesh between 2000 and 2018

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          Abstract

          The incidence of dengue has increased rapidly in Bangladesh since 2010 with an outbreak in 2018 reaching a historically high number of cases, 10,148. A better understanding of the effects of climate variability before dengue season on the increasing incidence of dengue in Bangladesh can enable early warning of future outbreaks. We developed a generalized linear model to predict the number of annual dengue cases based on monthly minimum temperature, rainfall and sunshine prior to dengue season. Variable selection and leave-one-out cross-validation were performed to identify the best prediction model and to evaluate the model’s performance. Our model successfully predicted the largest outbreak in 2018, with 10,077 cases (95% CI: [9,912–10,276]), in addition to smaller outbreaks in five different years (2003, 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2014) and successfully identified the increasing trend in cases between 2010 and 2018. We found that temperature was positively associated with the annual incidence during the late winter months (between January and March) but negatively associated during the early summer (between April and June). Our results might be suggest an optimal minimum temperature for mosquito growth of 21–23° C. This study has implications for understanding how climate variability has affected recent dengue expansion in neighbours of Bangladesh (such as northern India and Southeast Asia).

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          ggeffects: Tidy Data Frames of Marginal Effects from Regression Models

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              Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects

              Dengue is currently regarded globally as the most important mosquito-borne viral disease. A history of symptoms compatible with dengue can be traced back to the Chin Dynasty of 265–420 AD. The virus and its vectors have now become widely distributed throughout tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly over the last half-century. Significant geographic expansion has been coupled with rapid increases in incident cases, epidemics, and hyperendemicity, leading to the more severe forms of dengue. Transmission of dengue is now present in every World Health Organization (WHO) region of the world and more than 125 countries are known to be dengue endemic. The true impact of dengue globally is difficult to ascertain due to factors such as inadequate disease surveillance, misdiagnosis, and low levels of reporting. Currently available data likely grossly underestimates the social, economic, and disease burden. Estimates of the global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. The expansion of dengue is expected to increase due to factors such as the modern dynamics of climate change, globalization, travel, trade, socioeconomics, settlement and also viral evolution. No vaccine or specific antiviral therapy currently exists to address the growing threat of dengue. Prompt case detection and appropriate clinical management can reduce the mortality from severe dengue. Effective vector control is the mainstay of dengue prevention and control. Surveillance and improved reporting of dengue cases is also essential to gauge the true global situation as indicated in the objectives of the WHO Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012–2020. More accurate data will inform the prioritization of research, health policy, and financial resources toward reducing this poorly controlled disease. The objective of this paper is to review historical and current epidemiology of dengue worldwide and, additionally, reflect on some potential reasons for expansion of dengue into the future.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: MethodologyRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLOS Glob Public Health
                PLOS Glob Public Health
                plos
                PLOS Global Public Health
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                2767-3375
                2022
                9 May 2022
                : 2
                : 5
                : e0000047
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
                [2 ] Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, Bangladesh
                [3 ] School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
                [4 ] Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
                [5 ] Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
                University of Oxford, INDONESIA
                Author notes

                The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5247-4820
                Article
                PGPH-D-21-00038
                10.1371/journal.pgph.0000047
                10021868
                36962108
                02f003fd-3efb-41fb-b656-877707e0039e
                © 2022 Hossain et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 28 May 2021
                : 18 October 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 8, Tables: 2, Pages: 18
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007567, City University of Hong Kong;
                Award ID: 7200573
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007567, City University of Hong Kong;
                Award ID: 9610416
                Award Recipient :
                Grant number: #7200573 and #9610416 Name: City University of Hong Kong URL: https://www.cityu.edu.hk/ Recipient: Hsiang-Yu Yuan The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Tropical Diseases
                Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                Bangladesh
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Epidemiology
                Earth Sciences
                Seasons
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Statistics
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Earth Sciences
                Seasons
                Winter
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Meteorology
                Rain
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                India
                Custom metadata
                All data are in the manuscript and/or Supporting information files.

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