Improved models for the relationship between age and the probability of trypanosome infection in female tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen

Abstract

Between 1990 and 1999, at Rekomitjie Research Station, Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe, 29,360 female G. pallidipes were dissected to determine their ovarian category and trypanosome infection status. Overall prevalences were 3.45 and 2.66% for T. vivax and T. congolense, respectively, declining during each year as temperatures increased from July – December. Fits to age-prevalence data using Susceptible-Exposed-Infective (SEI) and SI compartmental models were statistically better than those obtained using a published catalytic model, which made the unrealistic assumption that no female tsetse survived more than seven ovulations. The improved models require knowledge of fly mortality, estimated separately from ovarian category distributions. Infection rates were not significantly higher for T. vivax than for T. congolense. For T. congolense in field-sampled female G. pallidipes, we found no statistical support for a model where the force of infection was higher at the first feed than subsequently. The long survival of adult female tsetse, combined with feeding at intervals ≤3 days, ensures that post-teneral feeds, rather than the first feed, play the dominant role in the epidemiology of T. congolense infections in G. pallidipes. This is supported by estimates that only about 3% of wild hosts at Rekomitjie were harbouring sufficient T. congolense to ensure that tsetse feeding off them take an infected meal, so that the probability of ingesting an infected meal is low at every meal.