Prediction of the development of acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery by machine learning

Abstract

Background

Cardiac surgery–associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is a major complication that results in increased morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. Most established prediction models are limited to the analysis of nonlinear relationships and fail to fully consider intraoperative variables, which represent the acute response to surgery. Therefore, this study utilized an artificial intelligence–based machine learning approach thorough perioperative data-driven learning to predict CSA-AKI.

Methods

A total of 671 patients undergoing cardiac surgery from August 2016 to August 2018 were enrolled. AKI following cardiac surgery was defined according to criteria from Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO). The variables used for analysis included demographic characteristics, clinical condition, preoperative biochemistry data, preoperative medication, and intraoperative variables such as time-series hemodynamic changes. The machine learning methods used included logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), and ensemble (RF + XGboost). The performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We also utilized SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to explain the prediction model.

Results

Development of CSA-AKI was noted in 163 patients (24.3%) during the first postoperative week. Regarding the efficacy of the single model that most accurately predicted the outcome, RF exhibited the greatest AUC (0.839, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.772–0.898), whereas the AUC (0.843, 95% CI 0.778–0.899) of ensemble model (RF + XGboost) was even greater than that of the RF model alone. The top 3 most influential features in the RF importance matrix plot were intraoperative urine output, units of packed red blood cells (pRBCs) transfused during surgery, and preoperative hemoglobin level. The SHAP summary plot was used to illustrate the positive or negative effects of the top 20 features attributed to the RF. We also used the SHAP dependence plot to explain how a single feature affects the output of the RF prediction model.

Conclusions

In this study, machine learning methods were successfully established to predict CSA-AKI, which determines risks following cardiac surgery, enabling the optimization of postoperative treatment strategies to minimize the postoperative complications following cardiac surgeries.