A mathematical model of tuberculosis and COVID-19 coinfection with the effect of isolation and treatment

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Abstract

In this research, we developed a coinfection model of tuberculosis and COVID-19 with the effect of isolation and treatment. We obtained two equilibria, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Disease-free equilibrium is a state in which no infection of tuberculosis and COVID-19 occurs. Endemic equilibrium is a state in which there occurs not only the infection of tuberculosis and COVID-19 but also the coinfection of tuberculosis and COVID-19. We assumed that the parameters follow the uniform distribution, and then, we took 1,000 samples of each parameter using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Next, the samples were sorted by ranking. Finally, we used the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) to find the correlation between the parameters with compartments. We analyzed the PRCC for three compartments, namely, individuals infected with COVID-19, individuals infected with tuberculosis, and individuals coinfected with COVID-19 and tuberculosis. The most sensitive parameters are the recovery rate and the infection rate of each COVID-19 and tuberculosis. We performed the optimal control in the form of prevention for COVID-19 and tuberculosis. The numerical simulation shows that these controls effectively reduce the infected population. We also concluded that the effect of isolation has an immediate impact on reducing the number of COVID-19 infections, while the effect of treatment has an impact that tends to take a longer time.

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Accuracy of results from mathematical and computer models of biological systems is often complicated by the presence of uncertainties in experimental data that are used to estimate parameter values. Current mathematical modeling approaches typically use either single-parameter or local sensitivity analyses. However, these methods do not accurately assess uncertainty and sensitivity in the system as, by default, they hold all other parameters fixed at baseline values. Using techniques described within we demonstrate how a multi-dimensional parameter space can be studied globally so all uncertainties can be identified. Further, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can help to identify and ultimately control uncertainties. In this work we develop methods for applying existing analytical tools to perform analyses on a variety of mathematical and computer models. We compare two specific types of global sensitivity analysis indexes that have proven to be among the most robust and efficient. Through familiar and new examples of mathematical and computer models, we provide a complete methodology for performing these analyses, in both deterministic and stochastic settings, and propose novel techniques to handle problems encountered during these types of analyses.

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