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      Potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants under climate changes

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          Abstract

          Background

          Arid and semi-arid regions account for about 40% of the world’s land surface area, and are the most sensitive areas to climate change, leading to a dramatic expansion of arid regions in recent decades. Ephemeral plants are crucial herbs in this area and are very sensitive to climate change, but it is still unclear which factors can determine the distribution of ephemeral plants and how the distribution of ephemeral plants responds to future climate change across the globe.

          Aims

          Understanding the impact of climate change on ephemeral plant distribution is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation.

          Methods

          This study explored the potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid regions (cold desert, hot desert, and deciduous forest) on a global scale using the MaxEnt software. We used species global occurrence data and 30 environmental factors in scientific collections.

          Results

          Our results showed that (1) the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was higher than 0.95, indicating that the MaxEnt model’s simulation accuracy for each species was good; (2) distributions of cold desert and deciduous forest species were mainly determined by soil pH and annual mean temperature; the key factor that determines the distribution of hot desert species was precipitation of the driest month; and (3) the potential distribution of ephemeral plants in the cold desert was increased under one-third of climate scenarios; in the hot desert, the potential suitable distribution for Anastatica hierochuntica was decreased in more than half of the climate scenarios, but Trigonella arabica was increased in more than half of the climate scenarios. In deciduous forests, the ephemeral plant Crocus alatavicus decreased in nearly nine-tenths of climate scenarios, and Gagea filiformis was increased in 75% of climate scenarios.

          Conclusions

          The potential suitable distributions of ephemeral plants in the different ecosystems were closely related to their specific adaptation strategies. These results contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the potential distribution pattern of some ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems.

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          Most cited references63

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          Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions

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            Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.

            Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations. At an intensively studied site within the region, we quantified that after 15 months of depleted soil water content, >90% of the dominant, overstory tree species (Pinus edulis, a piñon) died. The die-off was reflected in changes in a remotely sensed index of vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), not only at the intensively studied site but also across the region, extending over 12,000 km2 or more; aerial and field surveys confirmed the general extent of the die-off. Notably, the recent drought was warmer than the previous subcontinental drought of the 1950s. The limited, available observations suggest that die-off from the recent drought was more extensive than that from the previous drought, extending into wetter sites within the tree species' distribution. Our results quantify a trigger leading to rapid, drought-induced die-off of overstory woody plants at subcontinental scale and highlight the potential for such die-off to be more severe and extensive for future global-change-type drought under warmer conditions.
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              Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

              Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Plant Sci
                Front Plant Sci
                Front. Plant Sci.
                Frontiers in Plant Science
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-462X
                23 November 2022
                2022
                : 13
                : 1035684
                Affiliations
                [1] 1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Urumqi, China
                [2] 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China
                [3] 3 Yili Botanical Garden, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography , Xinyuan, China
                [4] 4 School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University , Rizhao, China
                [5] 5 College of Life Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University , Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
                Author notes

                Edited by: Jeremie Benjamin Fant, Chicago Botanic Garden, United States

                Reviewed by: Sophie Taddeo, Chicago Botanic Garden, United States; Songmei Ma, Shihezi University, China

                *Correspondence: Liu Huiliang, liuhuiliang@ 123456ms.xjb.ac.cn ; Zhang Yuanming, ymzhang@ 123456ms.xjb.ac.cn

                This article was submitted to Plant Systematics and Evolution, a section of the journal Frontiers in Plant Science

                Article
                10.3389/fpls.2022.1035684
                9728545
                36507407
                1f77305c-77be-439e-887e-7201679fe028
                Copyright © 2022 Lan, Huiliang, Hongxiang, Yanfeng, Lingwei, Kudusi, Taxmamat and Yuanming

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 07 September 2022
                : 31 October 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 7, Equations: 0, References: 63, Pages: 16, Words: 6895
                Categories
                Plant Science
                Original Research

                Plant science & Botany
                climate change,ephemeral plant,maxent model,potential distribution,species distribution model

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