Summary
What is already known about this topic?
In September 2023, CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
recommended updated 2023–2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19
vaccination for all persons aged ≥6 months to prevent COVID-19,
including severe disease. Few estimates of updated 2023–2024 vaccine
effectiveness against medically attended COVID-19 are available.
What is added by this report?
Receipt of an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose provided increased protection
against COVID-19–associated emergency department and urgent care
encounters and hospitalization compared with no receipt of an updated
vaccine dose among immunocompetent U.S. adults during a period of multiple
cocirculating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages.
What are the implications for public health practice?
These findings support CDC recommendations for updated 2023–2024
COVID-19 vaccination. All persons aged ≥6 months should receive
updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine.
Abstract
In September 2023, CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
recommended updated 2023–2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccination for
all persons aged ≥6 months to prevent COVID-19, including severe disease.
However, few estimates of updated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically
attended illness are available. This analysis evaluated VE of an updated COVID-19
vaccine dose against COVID-19–associated emergency department (ED) or urgent
care (UC) encounters and hospitalization among immunocompetent adults aged
≥18 years during September 2023–January 2024 using a test-negative,
case-control design with data from two CDC VE networks. VE against
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters was 51% (95% CI = 47%–54%) during
the first 7–59 days after an updated dose and 39% (95% CI = 33%–45%)
during the 60–119 days after an updated dose. VE estimates against
COVID-19–associated hospitalization from two CDC VE networks were 52% (95% CI
= 47%–57%) and 43% (95% CI = 27%–56%), with a median interval from
updated dose of 42 and 47 days, respectively. Updated COVID-19 vaccine provided
increased protection against COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and
hospitalization among immunocompetent adults. These results support CDC
recommendations for updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination. All persons aged
≥6 months should receive updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine.
Introduction
On September 12, 2023, CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
recommended updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination with a monovalent
XBB.1.5–derived vaccine for all persons aged ≥6 months to prevent
COVID-19, including severe disease (
1
). Although 1 updated vaccine dose is recommended
for most persons aged ≥5 years, vaccination coverage with updated vaccines
has remained low,* including among those at
highest risk for severe disease, such as adults aged ≥65 years. Thousands of
persons in the United States continue to be hospitalized with COVID-19 each week,
including approximately 31,000 during January 7–13, 2024, despite endemicity
and increased population immunity to SARS-CoV-2.
†
This analysis estimated updated COVID-19 vaccine
effectiveness (VE) during September 2023–January 2024
§
among immunocompetent adults aged
≥18 years against COVID-19–associated emergency department (ED) or
urgent care (UC) encounters in one CDC VE network and VE against
COVID-19–associated hospitalization in two CDC VE networks.
Methods
Data Collection
Methods for Virtual SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, and Other respiratory viruses Network
(VISION) and Investigating Respiratory Viruses in the Acutely Ill (IVY) VE
analyses have been described (
2
,
3
). VISION is a multisite, electronic health
records (EHR)–based network including 369 EDs and UCs and 229 hospitals
in eight states
¶
that
uses a test-negative, case-control design to estimate COVID-19 VE. Eligible
patients must receive molecular testing (e.g., real-time reverse
transcription–polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR] testing) for SARS-CoV-2
during the 10 days preceding or up to 72 hours after a
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounter or hospital admission.** COVID-19 vaccination
history is
ascertained from state or jurisdictional registries, EHRs, and, in a subset of
sites, medical claims data.
IVY is a multisite, inpatient network including 26 hospitals in 20 U.S.
states
††
that
uses a test-negative, case-control design to prospectively enroll patients with
COVID-19–like illness (CLI)
§§
who receive testing for SARS-CoV-2
within 10 days of illness onset and 3 days of hospital admission. Nasal swabs
are collected for central RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 at Vanderbilt University
Medical Center (Nashville, Tennessee), and SARS-CoV-2–positive specimens
are sent to the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, Michigan) for whole genome
sequencing to identify SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Demographic and clinical data are
collected through EHR review and patient or proxy interview. COVID-19
vaccination history is ascertained from state or jurisdictional registries,
EHRs, and self-report.
Data Analysis
The VISION and IVY networks conducted separate VE analyses. In both analyses,
immunocompetent adults aged ≥18 years who 1) had a medical encounter at
an ED/UC (VISION only) or 2) were hospitalized (VISION and IVY) at a
participating facility with CLI were included. Case-patients were those who
received a positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular test result, and control patients were
those who received a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result.
¶¶
Participants were excluded if
they 1) received a COVID-19 vaccine dose <7 days before their eligible ED/UC
encounter or hospitalization; 2) received an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose <2
months after receiving a previous COVID-19 vaccine dose (to align with current
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations); 3) received a
bivalent COVID-19 vaccine dose after September 10, 2023; 4) received an updated
COVID-19 vaccine dose before September 13, 2023; or 5) received >1 updated
COVID-19 vaccine dose.*** Case-patients
were also excluded if they had received a positive influenza or respiratory
syncytial virus (RSV) molecular test result at the time of their CLI
encounter.
†††
Because of potential confounding
caused by the association between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination behaviors,
control patients who received positive or indeterminant influenza test results
were excluded from the primary analysis
§§§
(
4
). A sensitivity analysis including these
control patients was also conducted.
Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable logistic
regression comparing persons who received an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose with
those who did not, irrespective of the number of previous original or bivalent
COVID-19 vaccine doses received (if any), among case-patients and control
patients. VE models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, calendar
time, and geographic region.
¶¶¶
VE was calculated as (1
− adjusted OR) × 100%. In the VISION network, VE was estimated for
adults aged ≥18 years and by age group (18–64 and ≥65
years). In the IVY network, statistical power was limited among younger adults
because of lower vaccination coverage and fewer COVID-19–associated
hospitalizations among persons aged 18–64 years; therefore, VE against
hospitalization was estimated only for adults aged ≥18 years and
≥65 years.
Analyses were conducted using R software (version 4.3.2; R Foundation) for the
VISION analysis and SAS software (version 9.4; SAS Institute) for the IVY
analysis. This activity was reviewed by CDC, deemed not research, and was
conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.**** This activity
was reviewed and approved
as a research activity by one VISION site.
Results
Updated COVID-19 VE Against COVID-19–Associated ED/UC Encounters,
VISION Network
Among adults aged ≥18 years in the VISION network, 128,825 ED/UC
encounters met inclusion criteria, including 17,229 case-patients and 111,596
control patients (Table 1). A total of
1,297 (8%) case-patients and 13,378 (12%) control patients had received an
updated COVID-19 vaccine dose. VE against COVID-19–associated ED/UC
encounters was 51% (95% CI = 47%–54%) in the first 7–59 days after
an updated dose (median interval since updated dose = 33 days) and 39% (95% CI =
33%–45%) in the 60–119 days after an updated dose (median interval
since updated dose = 74 days) (Table 2).
Among adults aged 18-64 years, VE against COVID-19–associated ED/UC
encounters was 52% (95% CI = 45%–58%) in the first 7–59 days after
an updated dose (median interval since updated dose = 31 days) and 45% (95% CI =
34%–55%) in the 60–119 days after an updated dose (median interval
since updated dose = 73 days). Among adults aged ≥65 years, VE against
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters was 49% (95% CI = 44%–54%) in
the first 7–59 days after an updated dose (median interval since updated
dose = 33 days) and 37% (95% CI = 29%–44%) in the 60–119 days
after an updated dose (median interval since updated dose = 74 days).
TABLE 1
Characteristics of emergency department or urgent care encounters and
hospitalizations among immunocompetent adults aged ≥18 years with
COVID-19–like illness, by SARS-CoV-2 test result status and CDC
vaccine effectiveness network — VISION and IVY networks,
September 2023–January 2024
Characteristic
VE
network, no. (column %)
VISION
IVY
Total no. of patients
COVID-19
case-patients
COVID-19 control
patients
Total no. of
patients
COVID-19
case-patients
COVID-19 control
patients
All ED/UC
encounters
128,825
17,229
111,596
—
—
—
COVID-19
vaccination status
No updated dose*
114,150 (89)
15,932 (92)
98,218 (88)
—
—
—
Updated dose, ≥7
days earlier
14,675 (11)
1,297 (8)
13,378 (12)
—
—
—
Updated
dose, 7–59 days earlier
10,197 (8)
825 (5)
9,372 (8)
—
—
—
Updated
dose, 60–119 days earlier
4,478 (3)
472 (3)
4,006 (4)
—
—
—
Median age, yrs
(IQR)
52
(34–71)
54 (35–72)
52 (33–70)
—
—
—
Age
group, yrs
18–64
85,121 (66)
10,959 (64)
74,162 (66)
—
—
—
≥65
43,704 (34)
6,270 (36)
37,434 (34)
—
—
—
Female
sex
78,702 (61)
10,292 (60)
68,410 (61)
—
—
—
Race and
ethnicity
Black or African American,
NH
13,252 (10)
1,425 (8)
11,827 (11)
—
—
—
White, NH
81,818 (64)
11,594 (67)
70,224 (63)
—
—
—
Hispanic or Latino, any
race
18,664 (14)
2,316 (13)
16,348 (15)
—
—
—
Other,
NH†
12,782 (10)
1,590 (9)
11,192 (10)
—
—
—
Unknown§
2,309 (2)
304 (2)
2,005 (2)
—
—
—
HHS
region¶
1
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
2
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
3
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
4
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
5
45,232 (35)
5,907 (34)
39,325 (35)
—
—
—
6
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
7
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
—
—
—
8
37,173 (29)
7,466 (43)
29,707 (27)
—
—
—
9
37,346 (29)
2,829 (16)
34,517 (31)
—
—
—
10
9,074 (7)
1,027 (6)
8,047 (7)
—
—
—
No. of
chronic medical condition categories**
0
93,347 (72)
13,540 (79)
79,807 (72)
—
—
—
1
25,509 (20)
2,542 (15)
22,967 (21)
—
—
—
2
6,619 (5)
814 (5)
5,805 (5)
—
—
—
3
2,439 (2)
230 (1)
2,209 (2)
—
—
—
4
720 (1)
84 (<1)
636 (1)
—
—
—
≥5
191 (<1)
19 (<1)
172 (<1)
—
—
—
Month of
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounter
Sep 2023
9,787 (8)
1,222 (7)
8,565 (8)
—
—
—
Oct 2023
29,836 (23)
3,521 (20)
26,315 (24)
—
—
—
Nov 2023
33,988 (26)
4,487 (26)
29,501 (26)
—
—
—
Dec 2023
42,403 (33)
6,289 (37)
36,114 (32)
—
—
—
Jan 2024
12,811 (10)
1,710 (10)
11,101 (10)
—
—
—
SARS-CoV-2 JN.1
lineage predominant
period
††
24,923 (19)
3,597 (21)
21,326 (19)
—
—
—
All
hospitalizations
37,503
4,589
32,914
4,117
1,194
2,923
COVID-19
vaccination status
No updated dose*
32,909 (88)
4,194 (91)
28,715 (87)
3,670 (89)
1,100 (92)
2,570 (88)
Updated dose, ≥7
days earlier
4,594 (12)
395 (9)
4,199 (13)
447 (11)
94 (8)
353 (12)
Updated
dose, 7–59 days earlier
3,326 (9)
270 (6)
3,056 (9)
283 (7)
57 (5)
226 (8)
Updated
dose, 60–119 days earlier
1,268 (3)
125 (3)
1,143 (3)
164 (4)
37 (3)
127 (4)
Median age, yrs
(IQR)
71
(59–81)
77 (67–84)
71 (58–81)
68
(55–78)
73 (61–82)
66 (53–76)
Age group,
yrs
18–64
12,975 (35)
976 (21)
11,999 (36)
1,765 (43)
371 (31)
1,394 (48)
≥65
24,528 (65)
3,613 (79)
20,915 (64)
2,352 (57)
823 (69)
1,529 (52)
Female
sex
20,083 (54)
2,365 (52)
17,718 (54)
2,127 (52)
623 (52)
1,504 (51)
Race and
ethnicity
Black or African American,
NH
3,979 (11)
346 (8)
3,633 (11)
929 (23)
226 (19)
703 (24)
White, NH
26,499 (71)
3,479 (76)
23,020 (70)
2,358 (57)
752 (63)
1,606 (55)
Hispanic or Latino, any
race
3,510 (9)
354 (8)
3,156 (10)
540 (13)
133 (11)
407 (14)
Other,
NH†
3,112 (8)
373 (8)
2,739 (8)
153 (4)
40 (3)
113 (4)
Unknown§
403 (1)
37 (1)
366 (1)
137 (3)
43 (4)
94 (3)
HHS
region¶
1
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
892 (22)
330 (28)
562 (19)
2
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
291 (7)
62 (5)
229 (8)
3
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
41 (1)
14 (1)
27 (1)
4
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
525 (13)
125 (10)
400 (14)
5
17,479 (47)
2,154 (47)
15,325 (47)
484 (12)
160 (13)
324 (11)
6
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
518 (13)
129 (11)
389 (13)
7
0 (—)
0 (—)
0 (—)
138 (3)
36 (3)
102 (3)
8
6,982 (19)
1,061 (23)
5,921 (18)
759 (18)
194 (16)
565 (19)
9
11,252 (30)
1,211 (26)
10,041 (31)
323 (8)
101 (8)
222 (8)
10
1,790 (5)
163 (4)
1,627 (5)
146 (4)
43 (4)
103 (4)
No. of
chronic medical condition categories**
0
5,113 (14)
643 (14)
4,470 (14)
389 (9)
98 (8)
291 (10)
1
6,316 (17)
624 (14)
5,692 (17)
807 (20)
237 (20)
570 (20)
2
7,234 (19)
847 (18)
6,387 (19)
1,171 (28)
340 (28)
831 (28)
3
9,230 (25)
1,255 (27)
7,975 (24)
975 (24)
290 (24)
685 (23)
4
6,545 (17)
830 (18)
5,715 (17)
521 (13)
156 (13)
365 (12)
≥5
3,065 (8)
390 (8)
2,675 (8)
254 (6)
73 (6)
181 (6)
Month of
COVID-19–associated hospitalization
Sep 2023
2,960 (8)
270 (6)
2,690 (8)
322 (8)
126 (11)
196 (7)
Oct 2023
9,789 (26)
1,011 (22)
8,778 (27)
1,081 (26)
352 (29)
729 (25)
Nov 2023
10,439 (28)
1,283 (28)
9,156 (28)
1,021 (25)
300 (25)
721 (25)
Dec 2023
11,791 (31)
1,674 (36)
10,117 (31)
949 (23)
230 (19)
719 (25)
Jan 2024
2,524 (7)
351 (8)
2,173 (7)
744 (18)
186 (16)
558 (19)
SARS-CoV-2 JN.1
lineage predominant
period
††
5,486 (15)
807 (18)
4,679 (14)
901 (22)
231 (19)
670 (23)
Abbreviations: ED = emergency department;
HHS = U.S. Department of Health and Human Services;
IVY = Investigating Respiratory Viruses in the Acutely
Ill; NH = non-Hispanic; UC = urgent care; VE
= vaccine effectiveness; VISION = Virtual SARS-CoV-2,
Influenza, and Other respiratory viruses Network.
* The “no updated dose” group included all eligible persons
who did not receive an updated 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine dose,
regardless of number of previous (i.e., original monovalent and
bivalent) doses (if any) received.
† For VISION, “Other, NH” race includes
persons reporting NH ethnicity and any of the following for race:
American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or other
Pacific Islander, other races not listed, and multiple races; because of
small numbers, these categories were combined. For IVY, “Other,
NH” race includes Asian, Native American or Alaska Native, and
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander; because of small numbers,
these categories were combined.
§ For VISION, “Unknown” includes persons
with missing race and ethnicity in their electronic health records. For
IVY, “Unknown” includes patients who self-reported their
race and ethnicity as “Other” and those for whom race and
ethnicity were unknown.
¶ Regions are defined by HHS. States included in each
region are available at https://www.hhs.gov/about/agencies/iea/regional-offices/index.html.
VISION network sites included were located as follows. Region
5: HealthPartners (Minnesota and Wisconsin) and Regenstrief
Institute (Indiana); Region 8: Intermountain Healthcare
(Utah) and University of Colorado (Colorado); Region 9:
Kaiser Permanente Northern California (California); and Region
10: Kaiser Permanente Northwest (Oregon and Washington).
IVY network sites were located as follows: Region 1:
Baystate Medical Center (Springfield, Massachusetts), Beth Israel
Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, Massachusetts), and Yale University
(New Haven, Connecticut); Region 2: Montefiore Medical
Center (New York, New York); Region 3: Johns Hopkins
Hospital (Baltimore, Maryland); Region 4: Emory
University Medical Center (Atlanta, Georgia), University of Miami
Medical Center (Miami, Florida), Vanderbilt University Medical Center
(Nashville, Tennessee), and Wake Forest University Baptist Medical
Center (Winston-Salem, North Carolina); Region 5:
Cleveland Clinic (Cleveland, Ohio), Hennepin County Medical Center
(Minneapolis, Minnesota), Henry Ford Health (Detroit, Michigan), The
Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center (Columbus, Ohio), and
University of Michigan Hospital (Ann Arbor, Michigan); Region
6: Baylor Scott & White Medical Center (Temple, Texas)
and Baylor University Medical Center (Dallas, Texas); Region
7: Barnes-Jewish Hospital (St. Louis, Missouri) and
University of Iowa Hospitals (Iowa City, Iowa); Region
8: Intermountain Medical Center (Murray, Utah), UCHealth
University of Colorado Hospital (Aurora, Colorado), and University of
Utah (Salt Lake City, Utah); Region 9: Stanford
University Medical Center (Stanford, California), Ronald Reagan UCLA
Medical Center (Los Angeles, California), and University of Arizona
Medical Center (Tucson, Arizona); and Region 10: Oregon
Health & Science University Hospital (Portland, Oregon) and
University of Washington (Seattle, Washington).
** VISION underlying condition categories included pulmonary,
cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, musculoskeletal, neurologic,
hematologic, endocrine, renal, and gastrointestinal. IVY underlying
condition categories included pulmonary, cardiovascular, neurologic,
hematologic, endocrine, renal, gastrointestinal, and autoimmune.
†† The JN.1 predominant period was considered to
have started December 24, 2023.
TABLE 2
Effectiveness of updated 2023–2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5)
COVID-19 vaccination against laboratory-confirmed
COVID-19–associated emergency department or urgent care
encounters, by age group — VISION network, September
2023–January 2024
Age group,
yrs/COVID-19 vaccination dosage pattern
No.
(column %)
Median
interval since last dose for vaccinated persons, days (IQR)
VE %*
(95% CI)
COVID-19 case-patients
COVID-19 control
patients
≥18
No updated
dose† (Ref)
15,932 (92)
98,218 (88)
669 (403–792)
Ref
Received updated
dose
1,297 (8)
13,378 (12)
44 (26–64)
47 (44–50)
7–59 days earlier
825 (5)
9,372 (8)
33 (20–46)
51 (47–54)
60–119 days earlier
472 (3)
4,006 (4)
74 (66–83)
39 (33–45)
18–64
No updated
dose† (Ref)
10,582 (97)
69,423 (94)
697 (480–832)
Ref
Received updated
dose
377 (3)
4,739 (6)
42 (24–62)
50 (44–55)
7–59 days earlier
259 (2)
3,457 (5)
31 (19–45)
52 (45–58)
60–119 days earlier
118 (1)
1,282 (2)
73 (66–83)
45 (34–55)
≥65
No updated
dose† (Ref)
5,350 (85)
28,795 (77)
509 (362–733)
Ref
Received updated
dose
920 (15)
8,639 (23)
46 (27–66)
45 (41–49)
7–59 days earlier
566 (9)
5,915 (16)
33 (21–46)
49 (44–54)
60–119 days earlier
354 (6)
2,724 (7)
74 (66–83)
37 (29–44)
Abbreviations: Ref = referent group;
VE = vaccine effectiveness; VISION = Virtual
SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, and Other respiratory viruses Network.
* VE was calculated as (1 − odds ratio) × 100% with odds
ratios calculated using multivariable logistic regression. For VISION,
the odds ratio was adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic
region, and calendar time (days since January 1, 2021).
† The “no updated dose” group included
all eligible persons who did not receive an updated 2023–2024
COVID-19 vaccine dose, regardless of number of previous (i.e., original
monovalent and bivalent) doses (if any) received.
Updated COVID-19 VE Against COVID-19–Associated Hospitalization,
VISION and IVY Networks
VISION network. Among adults aged ≥18 years in the VISION
network, 37,503 hospitalizations met criteria for inclusion in analyses,
including 4,589 case-patients and 32,914 control patients (Table 3). A total of 395
(9%) case-patients
and 4,199 (13%) control patients had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose.
VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 53% (95% CI =
46%–59%) in the first 7–59 days after an updated dose (median
interval since updated dose = 32 days) and 50% (95% CI = 40%–59%) in the
60–119 days after an updated dose (median interval since updated dose =
73 days). Among patients aged ≥65 years, VE against
COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 54% (95% CI = 47%–60%) in
the first 7–59 days after an updated dose (median interval since updated
dose = 32 days) and 50% (95% CI = 39%–59%) in the 60–119 days
after an updated dose (median interval since updated dose = 73 days).
TABLE 3
Effectiveness of updated 2023–2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5)
COVID-19 vaccination against laboratory-confirmed
COVID-19–associated hospitalization among adults aged ≥18
years — VISION and IVY networks, September 2023–January
2024
VE
network/Age group, yrs/COVID-19 vaccination dosage pattern
No.
(column %)
Median
interval since last dose for vaccinated persons, days (IQR)
VE %*
(95% CI)
COVID-19 case-patients
COVID-19 control
patients
VISION
(4,589 case-patients and 32,914 control
patients)
≥18
No updated
dose† (Ref)
4,194 (91)
28,715 (87)
627 (383 to 765)
Ref
Received updated
dose
395 (9)
4,199 (13)
42 (24 to 62)
52 (47 to 57)
7–59 days earlier
270 (6)
3,056 (9)
32 (19 to 45)
53 (46 to 59)
60–119 days earlier
125 (3)
1,143 (3)
73 (66 to 81)
50 (40 to 59)
18–64
No updated
dose† (Ref)
938 (96)
11,342 (95)
685 (447 to 829)
Ref
Received updated
dose
38 (4)
657 (5)
38 (22 to 58)
43 (20 to 59)
7–59 days earlier
28 (3)
503 (4)
30 (19 to 44)
42 (14 to 61)
60–119 days earlier
10 (1)
154 (1)
74 (67 to 81)
45 (–6 to
71)§
≥65
No updated
dose† (Ref)
3,256 (90)
17,373 (83)
549 (370 to 745)
Ref
Received updated
dose
357 (10)
3,542 (17)
43 (25 to 62)
53 (47 to 58)
7–59 days earlier
242 (7)
2,553 (12)
32 (19 to 46)
54 (47 to 60)
60–119 days earlier
115 (3)
989 (5)
73 (66 to 81)
50 (39 to 59)
IVY
(1,194 case-patients and 2,923 control
patients)
≥18
No updated
dose† (Ref)
1,100 (92)
2,570 (88)
645 (387 to 781)
Ref
Received updated
dose
94 (8)
353 (12)
47 (25 to 71)
43 (27 to 56)
7–59 days earlier
—
—
—
—
60–119 days earlier
—
—
—
—
≥65
No updated
dose† (Ref)
747 (91)
1,284 (84)
573 (375 to 752)
Ref
Received updated
dose
76 (9)
245 (16)
48 (26 to 72)
48 (31 to 61)
7–59 days earlier
—
—
—
—
60–119 days earlier
—
—
—
—
Abbreviations: IVY = Investigating Respiratory
Viruses in the Acutely Ill; Ref = referent group;
VE = vaccine effectiveness; VISION = Virtual
SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, and Other respiratory viruses Network.
* VE was calculated as (1 − odds ratio) × 100% with odds
ratios calculated using multivariable logistic regression. For VISION,
the odds ratio was adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic
region, and calendar time (days since January 1, 2021). For IVY, the
odds ratio was adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, calendar time
in biweekly intervals, and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
region.
† The “no updated dose” group included
all eligible persons who did not receive an updated 2023–2024
COVID-19 vaccine dose, regardless of number of previous (i.e., original
monovalent and bivalent) doses (if any) received.
§ Some estimates are imprecise, which might be due to a
relatively small number of persons in each level of vaccination or case
status. This imprecision indicates that the actual VE could be
substantially different from the point estimate shown, and estimates
should therefore be interpreted with caution. Additional data accrual
could increase precision and allow more precise interpretation.
IVY network. Among adults aged ≥18 years in the IVY network,
4,117 met criteria for inclusion in analyses, including 1,194 case-patients and
2,923 control patients. A total of 94 (8%) case-patients and 353 (12%) control
patients had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose. VE of an updated dose
against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 43% (95% CI =
27%–56%, median interval since updated dose = 47 days) among adults aged
≥18 years and 48% (95% CI = 31%–61%, median interval since updated
dose = 48 days) among adults aged ≥65 years.
Including control patients who received positive or indeterminant influenza test
results added 1,819 control patients to the VISION hospitalization analysis and
including control patients who received positive or indeterminant influenza test
results or had missing influenza test results added 511 control patients to the
IVY hospitalization analysis (Supplementary Table 1, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/148434).
VE estimates in
supplementary analyses including control patients who received positive or
indeterminant influenza test results did not differ meaningfully from those in
the main analyses for ED/UC encounters (Supplementary Table 2, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/148435)
or hospitalization
(Supplementary Table 3, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/148436).
Whole genome sequencing data were available for SARS-CoV-2–positive
specimens collected in the IVY network during September 21–December 15,
2023. Among 952 sequenced specimens, 154 (16%) had XBB.1.5–like spike
proteins, 550 (58%) had EG.5–like spike proteins with an F456L
substitution compared with XBB.1.5, 189 (20%) had HK.3–like spike
proteins with L455F and F456L substitutions compared with XBB.1.5, 57 (6%) had
JN.1–like spike proteins with more than30 substitutions compared with
XBB.1.5, and two (<1%) had other spike proteins.
††††
Similarly,
among 18,316 SARS-CoV-2–positive specimens collected during the same
period and sequenced by CDC as part of national genomic surveillance,
§§§§
2,624 (14%) had XBB.1.5–like spike proteins, 9,649 (53%) had
EG.5–like spike proteins, 3,700 (20%) had HK.3–like spike
proteins, 2,302 (13%) had JN.1–like spike proteins, and 41 (<1%) had
other spike proteins.
Discussion
During September 2023–January 2024, in two multisite VE networks, updated
2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination provided significant protection against
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalization among
immunocompetent adults, compared with not receiving an updated vaccine. The
comparison group included both unvaccinated persons and persons who had received
original monovalent or bivalent doses only; thus, these results support current CDC
recommendations for updated COVID-19 vaccination, including among persons who have
previously received original monovalent or bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and those who
have never been vaccinated, irrespective of previous infection history (
1
).
Updated COVID-19 vaccines contain the spike antigen from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron
XBB.1.5 virus, which was the predominant variant circulating in the United States
during the first half of 2023. Many other XBB lineages cocirculated during fall 2023
that had amino acid substitutions associated with increased escape from neutralizing
antibodies, such as EG.5 and HK.3 (
5
). The JN.1 lineage, a descendent of Omicron BA.2.86,
was first detected in the United States in September 2023
¶¶¶¶
and accounted for
approximately 65% of circulating lineages by the 2-week period ending January 6,
2024.***** As noted, JN.1 contains more
than 30 substitutions in the spike protein compared with XBB.1.5, some of which
might be associated with immune escape (
5
). Although studies have found that updated
COVID-19 vaccines elicit broadly cross-protective neutralizing antibodies, including
against XBB lineages and JN.1 (
5
–
7
), the pace and frequency with which new
SARS-CoV-2 lineages have displaced predecessors underscores the need for ongoing
monitoring of COVID-19 VE and for periodic COVID-19 vaccine antigen updates. These
analyses include periods when XBB lineages and JN.1 cocirculated to varying degrees
in the United States, indicating that receipt of updated vaccines provided
protection against COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalization
due to the variants cocirculating during this period.
Despite different populations, methods, and outcomes, estimates of the effectiveness
of updated COVID-19 vaccines were aligned across the VISION and IVY analyses. VE
estimates were also similar to those recently published from another CDC VE
platform, which measured VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (
8
), and to a United Kingdom
report,
†††††
which measured
VE against hospitalization among patients aged ≥65 years. Earlier estimates
of the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalization in older
adults from Denmark (
9
) and
the Netherlands (
10
) were
somewhat higher than those observed in this analysis; however, this is likely due
to
a shorter interval since updated dose receipt among patients included in the
European studies or to differences in study methods. Whereas the maximum interval
since receipt of an updated dose was 25 days in the Danish report and 2 months in
the Dutch report, persons in the VISION and IVY analyses could have received an
updated dose up to 4 months earlier.
In the VISION analysis, there was evidence of waning effectiveness of updated
COVID-19 vaccines against ED/UC encounters; however, COVID-19–associated
hospitalization rates during the analysis period were relatively low compared with
previous years, limiting the evaluation of waning VE against hospitalization and
precluding estimation of VE against critical illness. Analyses from VISION and IVY
during 2022–2023 showed substantial waning of COVID-19 VE against ED/UC
encounters and hospitalization, with VE not significantly different from zero in
some strata by 6 months after vaccination, although VE was more sustained against
critical illness (
2
,
3
) (defined as receipt of
invasive mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit admission, or death), with
protection lasting well over 1 year after the most recent dose. Continued monitoring
of the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines for expected waning against
hospitalization and to determine the durability of VE against critical illness is
needed.
Limitations
The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First,
although case-patients were required to meet a CLI definition and to receive a
positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, they might have visited EDs or UCs or been
hospitalized for reasons other than COVID-19, which could have lowered VE
estimates. Second, misclassification of vaccination status was possible, because
state registries, EHRs, medical claims data, and self-report might not identify
all updated COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, which would likely result in
underestimation of VE. Third, analyses did not account for previous SARS-CoV-2
infection, which might provide protection against future COVID-19. VE should
therefore be interpreted as the incremental benefit of an updated dose in a
population with high levels of infection-induced immunity, vaccine-induced
immunity, or both. Fourth, although analyses were adjusted for relevant
confounders, residual confounding from other factors, including behavioral
modifications to prevent SARS-CoV-2 exposure and outpatient antiviral treatment
for COVID-19, is possible. Finally, sample size limitations precluded estimation
of lineage-specific VE and stratification of VE by interval since updated dose
receipt in the IVY analysis.
Implications for Public Health Practice
In this analysis of the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines, receipt of an
updated COVID-19 vaccine dose provided protection against
COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalization among
immunocompetent adults. CDC will continue monitoring VE of updated COVID-19
vaccines. These results support CDC recommendations for updated 2023–2024
COVID-19 vaccination. All persons aged ≥6 months should receive updated
2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine.