Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate dynamics in the Holocene: Experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model

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Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

Wolfgang Cramer, Alberte Bondeau, F Ian Woodward … (2001)

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Determination of World Plant Formations From Simple Climatic Data.

L R Holdridge (1947)

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Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years

Crowley (2000)

Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.