<p class="first" id="d5575466e101">Drought risk refers to the potential losses from
hazard imposed by a drought event,
and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure.
In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the
impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on
drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought
vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure,
health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses
are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models
and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for
2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability
scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is
quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure)
is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show
that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates
for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating
drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries
as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate
that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard
and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is
found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective
than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces
potential exposure to drought.
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