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      Short-term traffic speed prediction under different data collection time intervals using a SARIMA-SDGM hybrid prediction model

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          Abstract

          Short-term traffic speed prediction is a key component of proactive traffic control in the intelligent transportation systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the short-term traffic speed prediction under different data collection time intervals. Traffic speed data was collected from an urban freeway in Edmonton, Canada. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average plus seasonal discrete grey model structure (SARIMA-SDGM) was proposed to perform the traffic speed prediction. The model performance of SARIMA-SDGM model was compared with that of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, seasonal discrete grey model (SDGM), artificial neural network (ANN) model, and support vector regression (SVR) model. The results showed that SARIMA-SDGM model performs best with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The traffic speed prediction accuracy under different time intervals were compared based on the SARIMA-SDGM model. The results showed that the prediction accuracy improves with the increase in time interval. In addition, when the time interval is greater than 10 min, the prediction results yield stable prediction accuracy.

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          Modeling and Forecasting Vehicular Traffic Flow as a Seasonal ARIMA Process: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Results

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            Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction

            This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.
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              Deep learning for short-term traffic flow prediction

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Data curationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Funding acquisitionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: SoftwareRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: ResourcesRole: Writing – original draft
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                26 June 2019
                2019
                : 14
                : 6
                : e0218626
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
                [2 ] Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
                [3 ] Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
                [4 ] School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
                [5 ] Periodical Office, Chang’an University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
                Central South University, CHINA
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Article
                PONE-D-19-04733
                10.1371/journal.pone.0218626
                6594624
                31242226
                2c86ff01-b731-4cc4-b067-3367bbfdcf12
                © 2019 Song et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 21 February 2019
                : 5 June 2019
                Page count
                Figures: 6, Tables: 4, Pages: 19
                Funding
                Funded by: the National Natural Science Foundation of China
                Award ID: 71701046
                Award Recipient :
                This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71701046 to YG), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (2017M571644; 2018T110427), the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX18_0151), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2242017K40130; YBJJ1533), and the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province (KYLX_0173). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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                Custom metadata
                The data used in this study is from a online open access dataset http://www.openits.cn/openData1/700.jhtml. We confirm that the authors did not have any special access privileges to the dataset that others would not have.

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