<p class="first" id="P2">Cigarette taxation is an economics-based policy associated
with increased population-level
quit ratios. However, the
estimated effects of tax increase on smoking behavior vary substantially, underscoring
the need to identify moderating variables.
We examined whether
<i>behavioral disengagement</i> – the tendency to abandon goals when experiencing
stress
– modified the association between cigarette taxes and daily smoking behavior. We
connected state-level cigarette tax rate
data with individual-level behavioral data, including a national sample of 725 US
adults who smoked daily at baseline and reported
follow-up data approximately 10 years later, and 376 who were resampled a third time
after another 10 years. Analyses involved
multilevel logistic regression (with time as a nested variable and anonymized state
codes as a grouping variable), where current
smoking status (dichotomous) was regressed on behavioral disengagement, state-level
cigarette tax at baseline and current time,
and the interaction between disengagement and current tax. Consistent with hypotheses,
tax rate interacted with disengagement
(
<i>OR</i>=0.95,
<i>95% CI</i>=0.90,0.99,
<i>p</i>=.0255): Among
those one
<i>SD</i> above the mean for disengagement, tax rate was unassociated with quit ratio
(
<i>OR</i>=0.99,
<i>95% CI</i>=0.85,1.16,
<i>p</i>=.6975). However,
among those one
<i>SD</i> below the mean, tax rate was significantly associated with higher quit ratio
(
<i>OR</i>=1.22,
<i>95% CI</i>=1.04,1.43,
<i>p</i>=.0163). Our
data suggest the possibility that cigarette taxes may be more effective in facilitating
cessation among smokers low in behavioral
disengagement or when accompanied by interventions that reduce stress or maintain
goal pursuit. Identifying psychological
moderators of policy effectiveness holds promise for improving policy design and targeting.
</p>