Modeling Pinot Noir Aroma Profiles Based on Weather and Water Management Information Using Machine Learning Algorithms: A Vertical Vintage Analysis Using Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Wine aroma profiles are determinant for the specific style and quality characteristics of final wines. These are dependent on the seasonality, mainly weather conditions, such as solar exposure and temperatures and water management strategies from veraison to harvest. This paper presents machine learning modeling strategies using weather and water management information from a Pinot noir vineyard from 2008 to 2016 vintages as inputs and aroma profiles from wines from the same vintages assessed using gas chromatography and chemometric analyses of wines as targets. The results showed that artificial neural network (ANN) models rendered the high accuracy in the prediction of aroma profiles (Model 1; R = 0.99) and chemometric wine parameters (Model 2; R = 0.94) with no indication of overfitting. These models could offer powerful tools to winemakers to assess the aroma profiles of wines before winemaking, which could help adjust some techniques to maintain/increase the quality of wines or wine styles that are characteristic of specific vineyards or regions. These models can be modified for different cultivars and regions by including more data from vertical vintages to implement artificial intelligence in winemaking.