Resolution and uncertainties in estimates of earthquake stress drop and energy release

Abstract

Our models and understanding of the dynamics of earthquake rupture are based largely on estimates of earthquake source parameters, such as stress drop and radiated seismic energy. Unfortunately, the measurements, especially those of small and moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude less than about 5 or 6), are not well resolved, containing significant random and potentially systematic uncertainties. The aim of this review is to provide a context in which to understand the challenges involved in estimating these measurements, and to assess the quality and reliability of reported measurements of earthquake source parameters. I also discuss some of the ways progress is being made towards more reliable parameter measurements. At present, whether the earthquake source is entirely self-similar, or not, and which factors and processes control the physics of the rupture remains, at least in the author's opinion, largely unconstrained. Detailed analysis of the best recorded earthquakes, using the increasing quantity and quality of data available, and methods less dependent on simplistic source models is one approach that may help provide better constraints.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe’.