The impact of testing and infection prevention and control strategies on within-hospital transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in English hospitals

Abstract

Nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is a key concern and evaluating the effect of testing and infection prevention control strategies is essential for guiding policy in this area. Using a within-hospital SEIR transition model of SARS-CoV-2 in a typical UK hospital, we predict that approximately 20% of infections in inpatients, and 89% of infections in HCWs were due to nosocomial transmission. Placing suspected COVID-19 patients in single rooms or bays has the potential to reduce hospital-acquired infections in patients by up to 80%. Periodic testing of HCWs has a smaller effect on the patient-burden of COVID-19 but would considerably reduce infection in HCWs by as much as 64% and result in only a small proportion of staff absences (approximately 1% per day). This is considerably fewer than currently observed due to suspected COVID-19 and self-isolation.