Global, Regional and National Incidence and Case-fatality rates of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) across 154 countries and territories: A systematic assessment of cases reported from January to March 16, 2020

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

Abstract

Background

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak turned into a pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases reported globally. The number of cases dramatically increased beginning in early March 2020.

Aim

We assessed the cumulative change in the incidence and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 at the global, regional, and national levels from January to March 16, 2020, in 154 affected countries and territories globally.

Methods

We collected data of COVID-19 cases using the GitHub repository, which provided real-time surveillance information developed by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University (USA). Information such as confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries reported across all affected countries was collected from January 22 to March 16, 2020. We estimated the change in the incidence rate, case-fatality rate, and recovery rate from January 22 to February 29 and from March 1 to March 16, 2020.

Results

From January 22 to March 16, 2020, globally, the number of incident COVID-19 cases increased by 276.2%, and Europe recorded 65,281 new cases from March 1 to 16, 2020. Overall, the case-fatality rate was 3.92%, with a high COVID-19 fatality rate in Italy (7.7%), Iran (5.7%), China (4.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.6%). The estimated percentage change in COVID-19 cases from March 1 to 16, 2020, was highest in Belgium (105.8/100,000 population), followed by Qatar (439/100,000 population) and Portugal (331/100,000 population). The overall recovery rate of COVID-19 was 43%; China (35.5%) had the highest recovery rate, while the United States of America recorded a recovery rate of 0.3%.

Conclusion

Overall, all the COVID-19-affected countries showed an upward trend in incidence, with little change in the incidence rate of -0.20% from January to Mid-March. The case-fatality rate was found to be 3.92%, and the recovery rate was observed to be less than half (43%) among COVID-19 patients. Italy, Iran, and Spain had the largest numbers of new cases of COVID-19 from March 1 to 16, 2020.