22
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
0 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

      research-article

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Background

          Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease.

          Methods

          We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003.

          Results and Conclusion

          We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

          Related collections

          Most cited references25

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: found
          • Article: not found

          Conquering the intolerable burden of malaria: what's new, what's needed: a summary.

          Each year, up to three million deaths due to malaria and close to five billion episodes of clinical illness possibly meriting antimalarial therapy occur throughout the world, with Africa having more than 90% of this burden. Almost 3% of disability adjusted life years are due to malaria mortality globally, 10% in Africa. New information is presented in this supplement on malaria-related perinatal mortality, occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus in pregnancy, undernutrition, and neurologic, cognitive, and developmental sequelae. The entomologic determinants of transmission and uses of modeling for program planning and disease prediction and prevention are discussed. New data are presented from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe on the increasing urban malaria problem and on epidemic malaria. Between 6% and 28% of the malaria burden may occur in cities, which comprise less than 2% of the African surface. Macroeconomic projections show that the costs are far greater than the costs of individual cases, with a substantial deleterious impact of malaria on schooling of patients, external investments into endemic countries, and tourism. Poor populations are at greatest risk; 58% of the cases occur in the poorest 20% of the world's population and these patients receive the worst care and have catastrophic economic consequences from their illness. This social vulnerability requires better understanding for improving deployment, access, quality, and use of effective interventions. Studies from Ghana and elsewhere indicate that for every patient with febrile illness assumed to be malaria seen in health facilities, 4-5 episodes occur in the community. Effective actions for malaria control mandate rational public policies; market forces, which often drive sales and use of drugs and other interventions, are unlikely to guarantee their use. Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria is rapidly gaining acceptance as an effective approach for countering the spread and intensity of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to chloroquine, sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine, and other antimalarial drugs. Although costly, ACT ($1.20-2.50 per adult treatment) becomes more cost-effective as resistance to alternative drugs increases; early use of ACT may delay development of resistance to these drugs and prevent the medical toll associated with use of ineffective drugs. The burden of malaria in one district in Tanzania has not decreased since the primary health care approach replaced the vertical malaria control efforts of the 1960s. Despite decentralization, this situation resulted, in part, from weak district management capacity, poor coordination, inadequate monitoring, and lack of training of key staff. Experience in the Solomon Islands showed that spraying with DDT, use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and health education were all associated with disease reduction. The use of nets permitted a reduction in DDT spraying, but could not replace it without an increased malaria incidence. Baseline data and reliable monitoring of key outcome indicators are needed to measure whether the ambitious goals for the control of malaria and other diseases has occurred. Such systems are being used for evidence-based decision making in Tanzania and several other countries. Baseline cluster sampling surveys in several countries across Africa indicate that only 53% of the children with febrile illness in malarious areas are being treated; chloroquine (CQ) is used 84% of the time, even where the drug may be ineffective. Insecticide-treated bed nets were used only 2% of the time by children less than five years of age. Progress in malaria vaccine research has been substantial over the past five years; 35 candidate malaria vaccines are in development, many of which are in clinical trials. Development of new vaccines and drugs has been the result of increased investments and formation of public-private partnerships. Before malaria vaccine becomes deployed, consideration must be given to disease burden, cost-effectiveness, financing, delivery systems, and approval by regulatory agencies. Key to evaluation of vaccine effectiveness will be collection and prompt analysis of epidemiologic information. Training of persons in every aspect of malaria research and control is essential for programs to succeed. The Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM) is actively promoting research capacity strengthening and has established networks of institutions and scientists throughout the African continent, most of whom are now linked by modern information-sharing networks. Evidence over the past century is that successful control malaria programs have been linked to strong research activities. To ensure effective coordination and cooperation between the growing number of research and control coalitions forming in support of malaria activities, an umbrella group is needed. With continued support for scientists and control workers globally, particularly in low-income malarious countries, the long-deferred dream of malaria elimination can become a reality. Copyright 2004 The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: found
            • Article: not found

            The ears of the hippopotamus: manifestations, determinants, and estimates of the malaria burden.

            J Breman (2015)
            Malarious patients experience asymptomatic parasitemia; acute febrile illness (with cerebral damage, anemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia); chronic debilitation (anemia, malnutrition, nervous system-related sequelae); and complications of pregnancy (anemia, low birth weight, increased infant mortality). These manifestations in patients, communities, and countries reflect intrinsic (human, parasite, mosquito) and extrinsic (environmental, social, behavioral, political, and economic conditions as well as disease-control efforts) determinants. At a minimum, between 700,000 and 2.7 million persons die yearly from malaria, over 75% of them African children. Between 400 and 900 million acute febrile episodes occur yearly in African children under 5 yr of age living in endemic areas. Although about half of these children are parasitemic, all merit consideration of malaria-specific therapy, which is becoming more problematic because of parasite resistance to drugs. These numbers will more than double over the next 20 yr without effective control. Fewer than 20% of these febrile episodes and deaths come to the attention of any formal health system. The relatively few ill patients who have any contact with the health services represent the "ears of the hippopotamus." Greatly intensified research activities and control of the intolerable burden of malaria are mandatory if economic development is to accelerate in Africa. In particular, support should be targeted to understanding and preventing malaria-induced anemia, hypoglycemia, effects on pregnancy, and neurologic and developmental impairment. To decrease and stop transmission of this intolerable scourge, there is an urgent need for malaria vaccines, newer drugs, and better vector control methods as well as the ability to improve current technologies and use them more efficiently.
              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Book: not found

              Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models

                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMC Med Res Methodol
                BMC Medical Research Methodology
                BioMed Central
                1471-2288
                2008
                19 February 2008
                : 8
                : 6
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Applied Statistics and Epidemiology Research Unit, Mathematical Sciences Department, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi
                [2 ]Malaria Research Programme, Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
                Article
                1471-2288-8-6
                10.1186/1471-2288-8-6
                2287185
                18284691
                41866351-75a8-4dae-8c2c-27d405f882b0
                Copyright © 2008 Kazembe et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 17 October 2007
                : 19 February 2008
                Categories
                Research Article

                Medicine
                Medicine

                Comments

                Comment on this article