"EMMA Study: a Brazilian community-based cohort study of stroke mortality and morbidity"

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Abstract

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Stroke has a high burden of disability and mortality. The aim here was to evaluate epidemiology, risk factors and prognosis for stroke in the EMMA Study (Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity). DESIGN AND SETTINGS: Prospective community-based cohort carried out in Hospital Universitário, University of São Paulo, 2006-2014. METHODS: Stroke data based on fatal and non-fatal events were assessed, including sociodemographic data, mortality and predictors, which were evaluated by means of logistic regression and survival analyses. RESULTS: Stroke subtype was better defined in the hospital setting than in the local community. In the hospital phase, around 70% were first events and the ischemic subtype. Among cerebrovascular risk factors, the frequency of alcohol intake was higher in hemorrhagic stroke (HS) than in ischemic stroke (IS) cases (35.4% versus 12.3%, P < 0.001). Low education was associated with higher risk of death, particularly after six months among IS cases (odds ratio, OR, 4.31; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.34-13.91). The risk of death due to hemorrhagic stroke was greater than for ischemic stroke and reached its maximum 10 days after the event (OR: 3.31; 95% CI: 1.55-7.05). Four-year survival analysis on 665 cases of first stroke (82.6% ischemic and 17.4% hemorrhagic) showed an overall survival rate of 48%. At four years, the highest risks of death were in relation to ischemic stroke and illiteracy (hazard ratio, HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.26-2.68) and diabetes (HR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.07-1.97). Major depression presented worse one-year survival (HR: 4.60; 95% CI: 1.36-15.55). CONCLUSION: Over the long term, the EMMA database will provide additional information for planning resources destined for the public healthcare system.

Translated abstract

RESUMO CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: O acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) tem alta carga de incapacidade e mortalidade. Objetivou-se avaliar a epidemiologia, fatores de risco e prognóstico do AVC no Estudo EMMA (Estudo da Mortalidade e Morbidade do AVC). TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo longitudinal prospectivo de base comunitária conduzido em hospital universitário. MÉTODOS: Dados sobre AVC baseados em eventos fatais e não fatais foram avaliados, incluindo dados sociodemográficos, mortalidade e preditores, por meio de regressão logística e análises de sobrevida. RESULTADOS: O subtipo de AVC foi melhor definido no ambiente hospitalar do que na comunidade local. Na fase hospitalar, cerca de 70% eram eventos primários e do subtipo isquêmico. Entre os fatores de risco cerebrovascular, a frequência de ingestão de álcool foi mais alta no AVC hemorrágico comparado com o isquêmico (35,4% versus 12,3%, P < 0,001). O risco de morte depois de AVC hemorrágico foi maior que o do AVC isquêmico e este gradiente foi máximo aos 10 dias após o evento (razão das chances, 3,31; intervalo de confiança (IC) de 95%: 1,55-7,05). Análise de sobrevivência em 4 anos com 665 casos de AVC primário (82,6% AVC isquêmico e 17,4% AVC hemorrágico) demonstrou taxa de sobrevida global de 48%. Aos 4 anos, maiores riscos de morte foram para casos de AVC isquêmico e pacientes analfabetos (hazard ratio, HR: 1,83; 95% IC: 1,26-2,68) ou com diabetes (HR:1,45; IC 95%: 1,07-1,97). Casos com depressão maior apresentaram pior sobrevida de 1 ano (HR: 4,60; IC 95%: 1,36-15,55). CONCLUSÃO: Em longo prazo, dados do EMMA fornecerão informações adicionais para planejamento de recursos destinados ao sistema de saúde público.

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Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study

Valery L. Feigin, Rita V Krishnamurthi, Priya Parmar … (2015)

Background: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. Objectives: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. Methodology: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. Conclusion: Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority.

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Hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes compared: stroke severity, mortality, and risk factors.

Tom Olsen, Kell K. Andersen, Lars Kammersgaard … (2009)

Stroke patients with hemorrhagic (HS) and ischemic strokes were compared with regard to stroke severity, mortality, and cardiovascular risk factors. A registry started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, now holds information for 39,484 patients. The patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity (Scandinavian Stroke Scale), CT, and cardiovascular risk factors. They were followed-up from admission until death or censoring in 2007. Independent predictors of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 25,123 individuals with a complete data set. Of the patients 3993 (10.1%) had HS. Stroke severity was almost linearly related to the probability of having HS (2% in patients with the mildest stroke and 30% in those with the most severe strokes). Factors favoring ischemic strokes vs HS were diabetes, atrial fibrillation, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and intermittent arterial claudication. Smoking and alcohol consumption favored HS, whereas age, sex, and hypertension did not herald stroke type. Compared with ischemic strokes, HS was associated with an overall higher mortality risk (HR, 1.564; 95% CI, 1.441-1.696). The increased risk was, however, time-dependent; initially, risk was 4-fold, after 1 week it was 2.5-fold, and after 3 weeks it was 1.5-fold. After 3 months stroke type did not correlate to mortality. Strokes are generally more severe in patients with HS. Within the first 3 months after stroke, HS is associated with a considerable increase of mortality, which is specifically associated with the hemorrhagic nature of the lesion.

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Sex Differences in Stroke Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Suzanne Barker-Collo, Derrick A Bennett, Rita V Krishnamurthi … (2015)

Background: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality rates were greater in men. However, sex differences in various metrics of stroke burden on a global scale have not been a subject of comprehensive and comparable assessment for most regions of the world, nor have sex differences in stroke burden been examined for trends over time. Methods: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates. Analysis was performed separately by sex and 5-year age categories for 188 countries. Statistical models were employed to produce globally comprehensive results over time. All rates were age-standardized to a global population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Findings: In 2013, global ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both sexes (1990 male IS incidence 147.40 (95% UI 137.87-157.66); 1990 female IS incidence 113.31 (95% UI 103.52-123.40)), but the only significant change in IS incidence was among women. Changes in global HS incidence were not statistically significant for males (1990 = 65.31 (95% UI 61.63-69.0), 2013 = 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)), but was significant for females (1990 = 64.892 (95% UI 59.82-68.85), 2013 = 45.48 (95% UI 42.427-48.53)). The number of DALYs related to IS rose from 1990 (male = 16.62 (95% UI 13.27-19.62), female = 17.53 (95% UI 14.08-20.33)) to 2013 (male = 25.22 (95% UI 20.57-29.13), female = 22.21 (95% UI 17.71-25.50)). The number of DALYs associated with HS also rose steadily and was higher than DALYs for IS at each time point (male 1990 = 29.91 (95% UI 25.66-34.54), male 2013 = 37.27 (95% UI 32.29-45.12); female 1990 = 26.05 (95% UI 21.70-30.90), female 2013 = 28.18 (95% UI 23.68-33.80)). Interpretation: Globally, men continue to have a higher incidence of IS than women while significant sex differences in the incidence of HS were not observed. The total health loss due to stroke as measured by DALYs was similar for men and women for both stroke subtypes in 2013, with HS higher than IS. Both IS and HS DALYs show an increasing trend for both men and women since 1990, which is statistically significant only for IS among men. Ongoing monitoring of sex differences in the burden of stroke will be needed to determine if disease rates among men and women continue to diverge. Sex disparities related to stroke will have important clinical and policy implications that can guide funding and resource allocation for national, regional and global health programs.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Alessandra Carvalho Goulart: Role: ND

Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): spmj

Title: Sao Paulo Medical Journal

Abbreviated Title: Sao Paulo Med. J.

Publisher: Associação Paulista de Medicina - APM (São Paulo, SP, Brazil )

ISSN (Print): 1516-3180

ISSN (Electronic): 1806-9460

Publication date (Print and electronic): December 2016

Volume: 134

Issue: 6

Pages: 543-554

Affiliations

[1] São Paulo São Paulo orgnameUniversidade de São Paulo orgdiv1Hospital Universitário orgdiv2Clinical Epidemiologist and Researcher, Center for Clinical and Epidemiological Research Brazil

Article

Publisher ID: S1516-31802016000600543

DOI: 10.1590/1516-3180.2016.024227092016

PubMed ID: 28076632

SO-VID: 46a23de8-833c-402e-bc2d-50ed368148ca

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

History

Date received : 13 September 2016

Date accepted : 27 September 2016

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Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 38, Pages: 12

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SciELO Brazil

Keywords: Acidente vascular cerebral,Vigilância em saúde pública,Estudos coortes,Fatores de risco,Mortalidade,Stroke,Public health surveillance,Cohort studies,Risk factors,Mortality

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Keywords: Acidente vascular cerebral, Vigilância em saúde pública, Estudos coortes, Fatores de risco, Mortalidade, Stroke, Public health surveillance, Cohort studies, Risk factors, Mortality

"EMMA Study: a Brazilian community-based cohort study of stroke mortality and morbidity" Translated title: "Estudo EMMA: estudo coorte brasileiro baseado na comunidade sobre mortalidade e morbidade por acidente vascular cerebral"

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SciELO Brazil

Most cited references 62

Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study

Hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes compared: stroke severity, mortality, and risk factors.

Sex Differences in Stroke Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

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